2004-05-11-皮尤-Iraq_Prison_Scandal_Hits_Home,_But_Most_Reject_Troop_Pullout_39页_113kb

Summary of Pew Research Center Report on Iraq Prison Scandal and Public Opinion

Key Findings on Iraq Prison Scandal:

• Public Exposure: 76% of Americans have seen pictures based on reports of Iraqi prisoner mistreatment by U.S. troops, with 58% hearing "a lot" about the scandal.
• National Satisfaction: Public satisfaction with national conditions at 33% is the lowest in eight years. Bush's overall job approval drops to -2% (+44% approve, 48% disapprove).
• War Opinions: 51% rate the Iraq war effort as "not too/at all well"; support for the war decision declines, with 30% now viewing it as wrong (up from 38% two weeks prior). Independents are for the first time evenly split on the war decision.
• Troop Withdrawal: 53% favor keeping troops in Iraq until a stable government is established, but Democrats are less supportive. A gender gap exists, with men more likely to support staying.

Presidential Election Dynamics:

• Race and Views: In a two-way race, Bush leads Kerry 50%-45%. Support for Kerry has increased slightly, but Bush retains a lead. Voters show high interest in the campaign, with notable engagement in battleground states.
• Candidate Perceptions: Bush is seen as a strong leader and decisive but stubborn. Kerry is perceived as caring but indecisive. Personalities shape opinions, with voters largely unmoved by campaign ads as Election Day approaches.
• Election Outcome Predictions: 52% believe Bush will win, compared to 31% for Kerry. Fewer undecided voters (22%) than in February, with partisan supporters increasingly fixed in their choices.

Partisan Divisions:

• Republicans strongly back Bush (85% approve his job performance); Democrats oppose him (13% approve). Independents show increased disapproval of Bush (49%).
• Issue-specific views diverge: Bush leads on defending against terrorism, but Kerry gains on issues like the economy, health care, and education. Strong partisanship correlates with satisfaction and war views.

Additional Insights:

• Press coverage of the scandal is seen as excessive by a majority. Criticism of the war is mixed in terms of patriotism, with conservative Republicans more likely to deem it unpatriotic.
• National satisfaction remains low, while employment earnings satisfaction increases, particularly among Republicans, with partisan attitudes linked to quality-of-life evaluations.