2014年-世界发展银行全球_Green_Growth_Opportunities_for_Bhutan_49页_1mb

Summary of "Green Growth Opportunities for Bhutan" (Policy Note, August 2014)

Core Content

This policy note explores the potential for green growth in Bhutan, emphasizing the role of its natural resources in economic development and the challenges that need to be addressed to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.

Main Points

Economic Overview

• Bhutan has achieved significant economic growth, averaging 9% per annum over the past decade and projected to grow at 8% per annum over the next five years.
• Extreme poverty has been virtually eliminated, with only 2% of the population living below $1.25/day in PPP terms.
• The economy is heavily dependent on natural resources, particularly hydropower, forestry, and tourism.
• Agriculture and livestock account for 13.4% of GDP, reflecting the significant rural population (69% in 2005).
• The tourism sector is becoming a more important contributor to export revenues, with 20% of non-hydro exports coming from tourism.

Green Growth as a Development Philosophy

• Green growth is central to Bhutan's development strategy, enshrined in its Constitution and Five Year Plans.
• The Constitution mandates that at least 60% of the land remain under forest cover, and in 2010, 70.5% of Bhutan's land was forested.
• The country aims to be carbon neutral, ensuring that emissions do not exceed the sink capacity provided by its forest cover.

Economic Policies Supporting Green Growth

• Focus on hydroelectricity, forestry, high-end/low-impact tourism, and agriculture as strategic sectors.
• Promotion of organic agriculture and export-oriented products through the banning of agro-chemicals.
• Encouragement of environmentally friendly businesses and foreign investment (FDI) via green incentives.
• Use of economic surplus or rent from natural resources to support economic diversification and institutional reforms.

Key Sectors and Opportunities

Hydropower

• Hydropower is a major contributor to GDP and export earnings, accounting for 17.1% of GDP in 2012 and 45% of total exports.

• The Tala hydropower plant (1020 MW) significantly boosted GDP growth in 2007.

• Installed capacity in 2012 was 1,488 MW, with plans to increase to 4,546 MW and 10,000 MW by 2020.

• Challenges include:

  • High upfront costs of hydropower projects.
  • Dependence on India as the main buyer of electricity.
  • Climate change risks, including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) and increased sedimentation.
  • Macro-economic imbalances and the need for fiscal policy measures.

• Solutions and Recommendations:

  • Implement basin-wide environmental assessments and catchment area treatment plans.
  • Use tools for ecosystem accounting and watershed investment prioritization.
  • Develop benefit sharing mechanisms and payment for ecosystem services (PES).
  • Strengthen regulatory capacity to monitor and manage environmental impacts.
  • Consider climate-resilient designs for hydropower facilities.

Forestry

• Forests cover 70.5% of Bhutan's land area, providing essential ecosystem services.
• The forestry and logging sector contributes 3.1% of GDP, but is crucial for poor livelihoods.
• Firewood accounts for 57% of total energy consumption, with 95% used by households.
• Only 14% of forest lands are economically accessible for commercial timber production.
• Conservation and sustainable use of forests are critical for long-term economic and environmental goals.

Agriculture

• Agriculture remains a major employment sector, with most of the population engaged in subsistence farming.
• Annual growth in agricultural net output has been low, highlighting the need for productivity improvements.
• Conservation agriculture and organic farming are promoted to enhance sustainability and competitiveness.
• Innovation in agriculture, such as the Kegg Farms example in India, is seen as key to improving green growth outcomes.

Tourism

• Tourism is becoming a significant export earner, especially due to Bhutan's pristine natural environment.
• The tourism sector is expected to play a larger role in the future, supporting economic diversification and job creation.
• Nature-based tourism is highlighted as a model, with examples from South Africa.

Urbanization and Environmental Challenges

• Rapid urbanization is straining municipal services and increasing pollution.
• Infrastructure development is linked to increased sediment flow in rivers.
• Human-wildlife conflicts and infrastructure siting pose challenges to forest conservation.
• The mining sector raises environmental performance concerns.

Cross-Cutting Issues

• Climate change is a growing threat, particularly to hydropower and forestry.
• Institutional and financial constraints limit the ability to diversify the economy and manage natural resources effectively.
• Youth unemployment is a concern, as the hydropower sector does not generate enough jobs.
• External debt is high, with 61% related to the hydropower sector, and 29% in convertible currency.

Conclusion

Bhutan has a solid foundation for green growth, supported by its natural resource endowment and development policies. However, to realize its potential and overcome challenges, the country needs to:

• Focus on sustainable use of natural resources.
• Use economic surplus to support diversification and employment enhancement.
• Implement complementary measures to manage environmental risks and social impacts.
• Promote climate resilience in the hydropower and forestry sectors.
• Develop institutional capacity to ensure environmental compliance and policy effectiveness.

Key Recommendations

• Develop policies for hydropower revenue use and revenue sharing.
• Strengthen regulatory frameworks for environmental and social impacts.
• Promote innovation and conservation agriculture.
• Implement payment for ecosystem services (PES) schemes.
• Conduct climate change impact assessments and adjust hydropower designs accordingly.
• Improve transport and infrastructure while managing sedimentation and environmental flows.
• Encourage foreign investment and green incentives.
• Address youth unemployment and income inequality through economic diversification and job creation.

Bibliography and Annex

• The report references Bhutan's 11th Five Year Plan, Living Standards Measurement Surveys, and Statistical Yearbook of Bhutan.
• Annex 1 provides information on funding for climate change and environment.

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