2007年-世界发展银行全球_Ethiopia___Urban_Labor_Markets_Challenges_and_Prospects_Volume_1_Synthesis_Report_114页_9mb

Ethiopia: Urban Labour Markets - Challenges and Prospects

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of Ethiopia's urban labour markets, focusing on the challenges and prospects for job creation, employment, and poverty reduction. It is part of a two-volume report by the World Bank, commissioned by the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit in the Africa Region. The report highlights the structural and institutional issues that have hindered the urban sector from becoming a significant driver of growth and employment.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Labour Market Trends (1999 - 2005)

• Participation rates remained stable at around 65%, with women showing increases and men showing declines.
• Employment rates stayed around 55%, with self-employment dominating (42%), followed by government (18%) and private (16%).
• Unemployment decreased from 14.8% to 13.5%, mainly due to declines in youth and older male unemployment.
• Youth unemployment remains significantly higher than for older cohorts, and women, especially older women, are more likely to be unemployed than men.
• Median wages for urban paid employees are generally low (ETB 300/month or USD 34 in 2005), with higher wages in the public sector and financial, real estate, and transport sectors.

2. Structural and Institutional Challenges

• Segmentation of the labour market persists, with the public sector being relatively privileged, the private formal sector being limited, and the informal sector being the largest and least productive.
• Institutional barriers to economic transformation include a slow transition from a socialist economy to a market-based system, limited private sector dynamism, and an incomplete transition process.
• Constraints to job creation in the private sector include regulatory uncertainty, limited access to factor markets (particularly land), and harassment by local authorities.
• Public sector employment has grown due to decentralization, but compensation structures are problematic, with high pay for low-skilled positions and a brain drain from high-level roles to NGOs and international organizations.

3. Migration and Labour Market Dynamics

• Internal migration is rising, though limited by institutional constraints. Migratory pressures are expected to increase.
• Migration patterns show that most movements are short-distance, with step-migration and direct urban migration from adjacent areas being common.
• Migrants tend to have better employment outcomes than non-migrants, but there is a risk of increasing urban poverty if migration is driven by rural distress.

4. Education and Labour Market Outcomes

• Education levels have improved, with over 75% of youth having at least four years of education by 2005.
• Educational returns are high, with a 16% premium for completing primary education and a 90% premium for high-skilled workers over illiterates.
• Women still face significant challenges in accessing better-paying jobs, despite improved educational performance, due to traditional gender roles and lower skill levels.

5. Policy Challenges and Recommendations

• The report outlines five main areas of policy intervention:
  • Enhancing the private sector through improved business climate and support programs.
  • Integrating vulnerable groups, particularly women and youth, into the labour market.
  • Creating an effective civil service with appropriate remuneration and hiring reforms.
  • Improving education and training, especially technical and vocational education (TVET) to align with market needs.
  • Enabling migration to contribute to growth and poverty reduction by addressing constraints and improving access to opportunities.

6. Data and Methodology

• The report is based on Labour Force Surveys (LFS) from 1999 and 2005, along with other data sources such as the Addis Labour Market Survey (ALMS) and Child Labour Force Survey (CLFS).
• It includes qualitative evidence from focus groups and surveys, highlighting the role of migration, informal employment, and the impact of public sector policies.
• Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models and other analytical tools were used to assess the potential for growth and job creation.

Summary of Key Findings

• Despite economic growth, urban areas have not become a major engine for job creation.
• Informal employment dominates, with over 80% of jobs found by youth in this sector.
• Women and youth face specific challenges in accessing productive employment and higher wages.
• Public sector employment has grown but is characterized by inefficiencies and brain drain.
• Private sector development is hindered by regulatory and institutional constraints.
• Migration is increasing and has potential to boost urban employment but also risks increasing urban poverty.
• Education plays a crucial role in improving employment outcomes, especially for women and in non-Addis urban areas.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive and targeted policy approach to address the structural and institutional barriers to job creation in Ethiopia's urban labour markets. It advocates for reforms that support the private sector, improve the effectiveness of the civil service, and integrate vulnerable groups into the workforce. The findings highlight the importance of education and training, as well as the need for better data collection and policy coordination to achieve sustainable growth and poverty reduction.