20260520-招银国际-1Q_results_beat_expecting_SGI_revenue_to_ramp_up_at_a_rapid_pace_6页_1004kb

Hesai Group (HSAI US) Summary

Core Content

Hesai Group (HSAI US) reported its first-quarter 2026 financial results, which exceeded expectations. The company achieved total revenue of RMB680.6 million, a 30% year-over-year (YoY) increase and slightly ahead of the Bloomberg consensus. Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB47.7 million, surpassing both the forecast and Bloomberg consensus. The company's management is optimistic about the future, particularly regarding the growth of its strategic growth initiatives (SGI), which include new AI algorithm integrated spatial intelligence device Kosmo and robotic actuation solutions.

Main Points

• Financial Performance in 1Q26:

  • Total revenue: RMB680.6 million (+30% YoY, +2% above Bloomberg consensus)
  • Non-GAAP net profit: RMB47.7 million, ahead of forecast (RMB38 million) and Bloomberg consensus (RMB13 million)
  • Gross profit margin (GPM): 39.1%, slightly below consensus (39.9%), due to product mix and competition
  • Operating margin: -1.3%, improved from -6.4% in 1Q25

• LiDAR Business:

  • LiDAR shipments in 1Q26: 471,700 units (+141% YoY), with ADAS LiDAR at 353,400 units (+142% YoY) and robotics LiDAR at 118,300 units (+138% YoY)
  • Average selling price (ASP) declined to RMB1,400 from RMB1,600 in 4Q25
  • Total LiDAR shipment forecast for 2026E: 3.25 million units, unchanged

• Strategic Growth Initiatives (SGI):

  • Expected to generate RMB100 million in 2026E, RMB500 million in 2027E
  • Anticipated to grow to a scale comparable to the core LiDAR business within 5 years
  • Kosmo may evolve into a recurring ARR model through software and platform services, improving profitability as the installed base expands

• Valuation and Target Price:

  • Target price: US$29.3, based on 7.5x 2026E P/S
  • Current price: US$20.03, implying a potential upside of 46.3%
  • Key catalysts for valuation rerating: faster adoption of L3 vehicles and ramp-up in SGI revenue

• Financial Forecast (2026E-2028E):

  • Revenue: RMB4,402 million, RMB6,275 million, RMB8,229 million
  • Adjusted net profit: RMB659 million, RMB1,054 million, RMB1,514 million
  • Gross profit margin: 39.6%, 39.2%, 38.8%
  • Adjusted net profit margin: 15.0%, 16.8%, 18.4%

• Shareholding and Market Data:

  • Market capitalization: US$3,223.6 million
  • 12-month price performance: -8.6% (1-month), -27.9% (3-months)
  • Shareholding structure: Fermat Star Limited (6.1%), Galbadia Limited (5.9%)

• Risks:

  • Potential product defects
  • Competition from alternative technologies like camera-based systems
  • Lower-than-expected LiDAR/ADAS penetration
  • Rising competition and potential price wars
  • Higher-than-expected operating expenses affecting margin expansion

Key Information

• Analyst Recommendations:

  • BUY (maintained)
  • Target price: US$29.30
  • Up/downside: 46.3%

• Financial Highlights:

  • Revenue growth: 29.6% in 1Q26
  • Net profit: RMB18 million (1Q26), up from RMB18 million (1Q25)
  • Adjusted net profit: RMB48 million (1Q26), up from RMB38 million (1Q25)

• Balance Sheet Highlights:

  • Total assets: RMB11,701 million (2026E)
  • Total liabilities: RMB2,388 million (2026E)
  • Total shareholders equity: RMB9,313 million (2026E)

• Cash Flow:

  • Net cash from operations: RMB319 million (2026E)
  • Net cash from financing: RMB0 million (2026E)
  • Cash at the end of the year: RMB1,552 million (2026E)

Analysts

• Saiyi HE, CFA: (852) 3916 1739 | hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk
• Ye TAO, CFA: (852) 3850 5226 | franktao@cmbi.com.hk
• Wentao LU, CFA: luwentao@cmbi.com.hk
• Shuyin GUO: (852) 3916 3716 | guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hk

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
• HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months
• SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months
• NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIGM
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Important Disclosures

• This report is not investment advice and is intended for distribution to major US institutional investors only.
• CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States.
• The report may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent from CMBIGM.
• CMBIGM accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law in Singapore.