2025-06-09-Jefferies-制造业人流量_5月数据显示第二季度销量疲软；卡特彼勒（CAT）表现可能较好_12页_421kb

Equity Research Report Summary: Industrials Sector (Jefferies, June 9, 2025)

Overview

This report analyzes the Industrials sector, focusing on manufacturing foot traffic as a predictive indicator for production volumes and sales. The methodology uses a dataset of facility visits to assess trends, with high correlations observed between foot traffic and quarterly performance for machinery-related companies.

Key Findings

• Foot Traffic Trends (May 2025):

  • Overall production activity showed declines, particularly in agriculture and trucks, aligning with sector expectations.
  • CAT demonstrated strong foot traffic (+9.8% year-over-year), potentially indicating a better-than-consensus 2Q performance. The correlation between R3M visits and sales volumes is high at 0.73, suggesting it serves as a useful directional tool.
  • PCAR experienced the steepest decline in foot traffic (-22.3% in May), consistent with weak industry demand and a projected 2Q decline; the correlation to Class 8 truck volumes is strong at 0.75.
  • CARR showed weaker momentum in May (-14.1% foot traffic), contrasting with consensus organic sales forecasts; the historical correlation to organic sales growth is ~0.75.
  • DE saw a moderate decline in May (-20.4% foot traffic), with a consensus net equipment sales forecast of -10.5% for Q3, though correlations are slightly weaker (~0.59).

• Economic and Sector-Wide Pressures: Factors include a weak macroeconomic environment, high interest rates, raw material price fluctuations (e.g., copper and steel for CAT), and slowing demand in key markets like China and agriculture, exacerbated by end-market weaknesses.

Valuation and Investment Recommendations

• Valuation Methods: Based on a combination of EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples, comparing historical cycles and peer groups. No intrinsic "fair value" is provided beyond multiple-based assessments.
• Ratings and Price Targets:
  • CARR: BUY rating, with a price target at $100, reflecting strong but falling foot traffic data.
  • CAT: BUY rating, price target at $425, underserved by current street forecasts.
  • DE: HOLD rating, price target at $510, based on moderate forecasts.
  • PCAR: HOLD rating, price target at $90, cited as unduly pressured by macro factors.
• Price Target Histories: Charts show historical trends, including multiple price adjustments; for instance, CAT's target reached a peak of $455 in October 2024 before correction.

Disclosures and Risks

• The analysis includes high correlations (0.6-0.8) between foot traffic and sales/volumes, but acknowledges limitations, such as not capturing price/mix impacts.
• Jefferies has potential conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies, and the report is intended for institutional clients only. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks, including economic shifts and regulatory constraints.

Analyst Certifications

• Stephen Volkmann (CFA), Chirag Patel, Josef Nieto, and Jamie Simonson certify that the views reflect their personal analysis and that compensation is not directly tied to recommendations.