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报告摘要
Global Real Estate Valuation Summary
Core Content
This document presents the UBS Global Real Estate Valuation Sheet, offering insights into the valuation metrics and performance of over 200 real estate companies and REITs. It includes a comprehensive analysis of key pricing metrics, performance data, and regional summaries, alongside contact details for the UBS Global Real Estate Team.
Key Valuation Metrics
The report provides a range of valuation metrics for the global real estate universe, excluding emerging markets (EM), as of 31 December 2024:
- Discount to NAV: 10.2%
- 2025E P/E: 18.4x
- 2025E DPS Yield: 4.0%
- 2024-25 EPS Growth Forecast: 6.2%
- Net Debt to Total Assets: 31%
Regional Comparison and Performance
The document includes a regional comparison of key pricing metrics such as discount to NAV, P/B, P/E, EV/EBITDA, dividend yield, and gearing metrics. It also provides a snapshot of recent performance, highlighting the best- and worst-performing stocks by region, with data in both local currency and USD.
Key Pricing Metrics Overview
By Business Type
| Business Type | Market Cap (US$) | Upside to PT | Discount to NAV | ROE (FY25e) | P/B (FY25e) | P/E (FY25e) | EV/EBITDA (FY25e) | Net Debt/EBITDA (FY25e) | EBITDA/EV (FY25e) | EPS Yield (FY25e) | EPS YoY (24-25) | Dividend Yield (FY25e) | DPS YoY (25-26) | Net Debt/EV (FY25e) | Total Return (24-25) | Total Return (25-26) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investor | $1,355bn | 12% | -6% | 7.6% | 2.5x | 18.8x | 20.8x | 5.0x | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 42% | 29% |
| Developer | $354bn | 20% | -48% | 5.4% | 1.2x | 17.6x | 17.5x | 5.3x | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 11.2% | 16% |
| REIT | $1,196bn | 12% | -2% | 8.0% | 2.7x | 19.2x | 20.9x | 4.5x | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 43% |
| Prop. Co. | $632bn | 18% | -36% | 4.3% | 1.3x | 17.0x | 16.7x | 5.3x | 9.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 7.8% | 26% |
By Sector
| Sector | Market Cap (US$) | Upside to PT | Discount to NAV | ROE (FY25e) | P/B (FY25e) | P/E (FY25e) | EV/EBITDA (FY25e) | Net Debt/EBITDA (FY25e) | EBITDA/EV (FY25e) | EPS Yield (FY25e) | EPS YoY (24-25) | Dividend Yield (FY25e) | DPS YoY (25-26) | Net Debt/EV (FY25e) | Total Return (24-25) | Total Return (25-26) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | $106bn | 12% | -31% | 4.9% | 1.0x | 15.9x | 20.1x | 6.3x | 5.3% | -1.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 32% | 27% | 40% |
| Retail | $224bn | 14% | -12% | 7.4% | 1.1x | 13.6x | 16.4x | 5.0x | 6.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 34% | 51% | 34% |
| Industrial | $229bn | 25% | -15% | 6.9% | 1.8x | 19.9x | 27.9x | 4.8x | 4.3% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 36% | 18% | 24% |
| Residential | $369bn | 14% | -34% | 5.0% | 1.8x | 14.9x | 16.9x | 5.6x | 8.2% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 24% | 29% |
| Diversified | $310bn | 16% | -30% | 6.1% | 1.3x | 20.9x | 21.2x | 6.3x | 5.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 10.9% | 32% | 34% |
| Hotel | $10bn | 13% | -7% | 4.3% | 1.3x | 25.6x | 19.3x | 7.2x | 5.2% | 19.9% | 35.0% | 3.9% | -15.5% | 34.9% | 30% | 37% |
By Region
| Region | Market Cap (US$) | Upside to PT | Discount to NAV | ROE (FY25e) | P/B (FY25e) | P/E (FY25e) | EV/EBITDA (FY25e) | Net Debt/EBITDA (FY25e) | EBITDA/EV (FY25e) | EPS Yield (FY25e) | EPS YoY (24-25) | Dividend Yield (FY25e) | DPS YoY (25-26) | Net Debt/EV (FY25e) | Total Return (24-25) | Total Return (25-26) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | $105bn | 11% | -9% | 13.8% | 2.0x | 20.3x | 35.1x | 3.7x | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 18% | 20% |
| New Zealand | $4bn | 17% | -13% | 9.6% | 0.9x | 19.0x | 19.0x | 7.0x | 5.4% | 1.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 24% | 29% |
| Hong Kong Prop. Co. | $114bn | 18% | -61% | 0.3% | 0.3x | 8.6x | 12.3x | 3.4x | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 6% | 23% |
| Hong Kong REITs | $12bn | 18% | -57% | 1.0% | 0.5x | 12.4x | 13.9x | 5.7x | 7.2% | -4.4% | -2.7% | 8.0% | -0.4% | -4.4% | 21% | 40% |
| Japan Prop. Co. | $67bn | 18% | -45% | 5.6% | 1.0x | 17.8x | 13.1x | 8.8x | 6.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 2.3% | 11.1% | 18.0% | 46% | 56% |
| JREIT | $54bn | 13% | -24% | 8.2% | 1.3x | 24.3x | 24.0x | 8.3x | 4.3% | 2.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 35% | 33% |
| Singapore Prop. Co. | $17bn | 25% | -47% | 8.1% | 0.8x | 19.2x | 21.0x | 8.3x | 5.1% | 8.8% | 20.8% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28% | 41% |
| SREIT | $44bn | 18% | -14% | 5.5% | 0.9x | 17.6x | 22.1x | 9.3x | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 6.3% | -0.1% | 2.7% | 36% | 42% |
| Continental Europe | $124bn | 17% | -26% | 7.7% | 0.7x | 15.1x | 22.2x | 11.0x | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 37% | 50% |
| Germany | $38bn | 22% | -38% | 5.2% | 0.6x | 12.5x | 23.7x | 14.0x | 4.3% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 43% | 61% |
| France | $28bn | 13% | -33% | 10.6% | 0.7x | 9.8x | 18.5x | 8.8x | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 34% | 34% | 49% |
| United Kingdom | $33bn | 34% | -37% | 10.5% | 0.7x | 19.1x | 22.8x | 8.7x | 5.5% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 28% | 39% |
| US REITs | $897bn | 10% | 4% | 7.2% | 3.2x | 19.6x | 19.3x | 3.8x | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 35% | 25% |
| US CRE Brokers | $55bn | 5% | -- | -- | 2.9x | 21.0x | 12.6x | 0.3x | 8.3% | 17.7% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2% | 4% |
Key Viewpoints
- The global real estate market, excluding emerging markets, is currently trading at a 10.2% discount to the UBS NAV estimate.
- The 2025E P/E ratio is 18.4x, with a 2025E DPS yield of 4.0%.
- Forecasted EPS growth for 2024-25 is 6.2%, with a net debt to total assets ratio of 31%.
- Regional performance varies significantly, with some markets showing positive upside while others are in discount to NAV.
Key Information
- The document includes detailed valuation metrics for each company, such as earnings and dividend growth, pay-out ratio, EV/EBITDA, and leverage metrics.
- It also provides recent liquidity and performance data for each company.
- The contact list for the UBS Global Real Estate Team is included, with analysts and sales contacts for various regions and sectors.
- The report highlights specific companies in the US real estate sector with their respective metrics and performance data.
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