20260226-招银国际-FIT_HON_TENG-06088.HK-Strong_2026_outlook_with_AI_interconnect_power_thermal_upgrades_as_key_growth_drivers_7页_826kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK) # Strong 2026 outlook with AI interconnect/ power/thermal upgrades as key growth drivers Looking into 2026, we believe FIT is well-positioned to benefit from architecture upgrade in GB300/VR200 servers and strong product pipeline in interconnect (MCIO, cable cartridge, midplane connector), power (busbar, power whip), liquid cooling (UQD, LC busbar) and CPOs (LGA-to-LGA socket, PLS I/O cage). We forecast FIT's AI-related revenue to grow at $95\%$ CAGR in FY25-27E, accounting for $18\%$ of revenue in FY27E (vs $6\%$ in FY25E). For 4Q25/FY25E, we estimate FY25E revenue/net profit growth of $11\% / 11\%$ YoY, implying 4Q25E revenue/net profit growth of $6\% / 21\%$ YoY. We expect GTC and OFC 2026 in mid-March will be major upcoming catalysts for the stock, as market will focus on updates on scale-up interconnect and CPO solutions. We raise our TP to HK$7.33 based on new estimates and higher 21x FY26E P/E (vs prior 20x for higher AI mix and sector re-rating). The stock trades at 17.5x/12.6x FY26/27E P/E (vs 24x for 1-sd above 8-yr avg. P/E), and we expect further re-rating on higher AI revenue contribution in FY26-27E. Reiterate BUY. ■ Strong product pipeline to boost AI content value to US$30k/rack in 2027E. Driven by rapid architecture upgrade in interconnect/cooling/power solutions for GB300/VR200, we expect FIT's AI revenue to grow at \(95\%$ FY25-27E CAGR to reach $18\%$ mix in FY27E: 1) Interconnect (US\)10k+/rack): share gains in MCIO/cable cartridge in 2H26E and midplane connectors in 2027, 2) Power (US\)10k/rack): power busbar in 2026 and power whip in 2H26E, 3) Liquid cooling (US\)5k-10k/rack): share gains in CDU UQD in 2026 and LC busbar in 2027, 4) CPO/CPC: CPO (LGA-to-LGA socket, PLS I/O cage) in 2H26E and CPC 224G interconnect solution in 2027. ■ 4Q25E preview: strong datacenter/automobile segments dragged by smartphone weakness. We estimate 4Q25E revenue/net profit of US$1,288mn/64.3mn (+6%/21% YoY), vs 13%/9% YoY in 3Q25. By segment, we expect cloud/mobility revenue to grow 34%/68% YoY, offsetting weakness of smartphone/consumer/system products (-18%/-3%/-3% YoY) in 4Q25. We expect 4Q25E GPM/NPM to recover YoY to 20.2%/5.0% (vs 16.7%/4.4% in 4Q24) due to better AI revenue mix. ■ Stronger cloud/datacenter momentum to drive re-rating; Raise TP to HK$7.33. We believe FIT is on track to boost cloud/datacenter sales mix to low/mid/high-20% in FY26/27/28E. We've adjusted our FY25-27E EPS to reflect robust datacenter/cloud segment offset by near-term smartphone/CE weakness. Our new TP of HK$7.33 is based on new estimates and higher 21x FY26E P/E given rising AI mix and sector re-rating. Reiterate BUY. Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E FY27E Revenue (US$ mn) 4,196 4,451 4,917 5,620 6,696 YoY growth (%) (7.4) 6.1 10.5 14.3 19.2 Net profit (US$ mn) 129.6 154.3 170.7 311.6 434.8 YoY growth (%) (23.8) 19.1 10.6 82.5 39.5 EPS (Reported) (US$ cents) 1.82 2.17 2.40 4.38 6.12 Consensus EPS (US$ cents) na na 2.54 4.14 5.37 P/E (x) 42.2 35.4 32.0 17.5 12.6 P/B (x) 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROE (%) 5.4 6.3 6.6 11.1 13.7 Net gearing (%) 0.0 na na na na Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates # BUY (Maintain) Target Price HK$7.33 (Previous TP HK$6.77) Up/Downside 22.0% Current Price HK$6.01 # China Technology Alex NG (852) 3900 0881 alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hangqing LI lihanqing@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) 43,674.7 Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn) 234.0 52w High/Low (HK$) 7.02/1.71 Total Issued Shares (mn) 7267.0 Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure Foxconn Far East Ltd 71.1% Lu Sung-Ching 5.5% Source: HKEx Share Performance 12-mth Price Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth 25.7% 25.7% 3-mth 24.4% 20.4% 6-mth 16.7% 12.6% Source:FactSet Source:FactSet # Focus charts: Figure 1: FIT high-speed connectors Source: HHTD25, CMBIGM Figure 2: FIT CPU & GPU sockets Source: HHTD25, CMBIGM Figure 3: FIT MCIO/MXIO/EDSFF cables Source: Computex, CMBIGM Figure 4: FIT DAC/ACC/AEC and 1.6T transceiver Source: Computex, CMBIGM Figure 5: FIT power solutions for power shelf Source: HHTD25, CMBIGM Figure 6: FIT power whip cables & connectors Source: HHTD25, CMBIGM # FY25E preview Figure 7: Revenue breakdown US$ 000 FY24 1H25 2H25E FY25E FY26E FY27E Smartphones 942,909 365,123 426,921 792,044 839,566 889,940 ...YoY -10% -12% -19% -16% 6% 6% Networking 590,684 353,901 442,095 795,996 1,191,633 1,857,856 ...YoY 39% 36% 34% 35% 50% 56% Traditional server 428,191 471,010 541,662 622,911 AI server 162,493 324,985 649,971 1,234,944 Computing 809,512 432,403 425,680 858,083 952,472 1,047,719 ...YoY 5% 14% -1% 6% 11% 10% Mobility 480,716 459,755 479,996 939,751 1,017,504 1,101,733 ...YoY 58% 102% 89% 95% 8% 8% EV business 116,920 - - 128,612 141,473 155,621 Voltaira 363,796 - - 381,986 412,545 445,548 AK Group 429,153 463,486 500,565 Systems Products 1,416,113 588,516 741,508 1,330,024 1,407,397 1,577,247 ...YoY 0% -12% 0% -6% 6% 12% AirPods 233,750 242,250 428,400 696,150 Others 1,182,363 1,087,774 978,997 881,097 Others 211,560 105,264 95,718 200,982 211,031 221,583 ...YoY -9% -7% -2% -5% 5% 5% Total 4,451,494 2,304,962 2,611,917 4,916,879 5,619,602 6,696,078 ...YoY 6.1% 11.5% 9.5% 10.5% 14.3% 19.2% Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Figure 8: P&L forecast US$ mn FY24 1H25 2H25E FY25E FY26E FY27E Revenue 4,451 2,305 2,612 4,917 5,620 6,696 ...YoY 6.1% 11.5% 9.5% 10.5% 14.3% 19.2% Cost of sales (3,573) (1,876) (2,041) (3,918) (4,420) (5,211) Gross profit 879 429 571 999 1,200 1,485 GPM (%) 20% 19% 22% 20% 21% 22% ...YoY 8.9% 1.7% 24.8% 13.7% 20.0% 23.8% SG&A (373) (215) (228) (443) (472) (549) ...% of rev -8.4% -9.3% -8.7% -9.0% -8.4% -8.2% R&D (330) (163) (196) (359) (388) (462) ...% of rev -7.4% -7.1% -7.5% -7.3% -6.9% -6.9% Operating profit 327 105 171 277 435 587 OPM (%) 7.3% 4.6% 6.6% 5.6% 7.7% 8.8% ...YoY 24.3% 12.8% -26.6% -15.4% 57.4% 34.9% Net profit 154 32 139 170 311 433 NPM (%) 3.5% 1.4% 5.3% 3.5% 5.5% 6.5% ...YoY 19.2% -3.1% 14.4% 10.7% 82.5% 39.5% Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Figure 9: CMBIGM estimates vs consensus (US$ mn) CMBIGM Consensus Diff (%) FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E Revenue 4,917 5,620 6,696 4,855 5,816 7,031 1% -3% -5% Gross profit 999 1,200 1,485 967 1,182 1,486 3% 1% 0% Operating profit 277 435 587 271 425 596 2% 3% -2% Net profit 170 311 433 181 298 393 -6% 4% 10% EPS (USD cents) 2.40 4.38 6.12 2.54 4.14 5.37 -5% 6% 14% Gross margin 20.3% 21.3% 22.2% 19.9% 20.3% 21.1% 0.4 ppt 1 ppt 1 ppt Operating margin 5.6% 7.7% 8.8% 5.6% 7.3% 8.5% 0 ppt 0.4 ppt 0.3 ppt Net Margin 3.5% 5.5% 6.5% 3.7% 5.1% 5.6% -0.3 ppt 0.4 ppt 0.9 ppt Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates Figure 10: CMBIGM earnings revisions (US$ mn) New Old Diff (%) FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E Revenue 4,917 5,620 6,696 4,883 5,859 7,103 1% -4% -6% Gross profit 999 1,200 1,485 995 1,240 1,555 0% -3% -5% Operating profit 277 435 587 297 449 596 -7% -3% -1% Net profit 170 311 433 190 309 423 -10% 1% 2% EPS (USD cents) 2.40 4.38 6.12 2.68 4.35 5.97 -10% 1% 2% Gross margin 20.3% 21.3% 22.2% 20.4% 21.2% 21.9% -0.1 ppt 0.2 ppt 0.3 ppt Operating margin 5.6% 7.7% 8.8% 6.1% 7.7% 8.4% -0.5 ppt 0.1 ppt 0.4 ppt Net Margin 3.5% 5.5% 6.5% 3.9% 5.3% 6.0% -0.4 ppt 0.3 ppt 0.5 ppt Source: CMBIGM estimates # Valuation # Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$7.33 We have adjusted FY25/26/27E EPS by $-10\% / +1\% / +2\%$ to factor in smartphone weakness and AI server business momentum. We raise our TP to HK$7.33 based on new estimates and higher 21x FY26E P/E (vs prior 20x for higher AI mix and sector re-rating). The stock trades at 17.5x/12.6x FY26/27E (vs 24x for 1-sd above 8-yr avg. P/E), and we expect further re-rating on higher AI revenue contribution in FY26-27E. Maintain BUY. Upcoming catalysts include GTC 2026, OFC 2026 and 2025 results in mid-March. Figure 11: 12M forward P/E band Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates Figure 12: 12M forward P/B band Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (US$ mn) Revenue 4,531 4,196 4,451 4,917 5,620 6,696 Cost of goods sold (3,763) (3,388) (3,573) (3,918) (4,420) (5,211) Gross profit 768 807 879 999 1,200 1,485 Selling expense (93) (105) (131) (148) (163) (187) Admin expense (130) (191) (242) (295) (309) (362) R&D expense (296) (308) (330) (359) (388) (462) Others 58 61 152 79 96 114 Operating profit 307 263 327 277 435 587 Share of (losses)/profits of associates/JV (46) (50) (58) 1 1 1 Interest expense (14) (33) (48) (43) (37) (30) Pre-tax profit 248 179 221 234 399 557 Income tax (78) (50) (66) (63) (88) (123) Minority interest 1 1 1 1 1 1 Net profit 170 130 154 171 312 435 BALANCE SHEET 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (US$ mn) Current assets 2,764 3,112 3,160 3,436 4,653 6,027 Cash & equivalents 914 1,316 1,113 1,218 2,098 3,032 Account receivables 720 807 910 987 1,181 1,402 Inventories 967 802 904 999 1,142 1,360 ST bank deposits 66 4 42 42 42 42 Non-current assets 1,783 1,982 2,311 2,257 1,632 936 PP&E 753 900 1,191 1,137 512 (183) Deferred income tax 131 126 132 132 132 132 Investment in JVs & assoc 123 73 15 15 15 15 Intangibles 601 700 728 728 728 728 Other non-current assets 175 182 244 244 244 244 Total assets 4,547 5,094 5,470 5,693 6,285 6,963 Current liabilities 1,539 2,563 2,241 2,293 2,574 2,817 Short-term borrowings 453 1,383 904 904 904 904 Account payables 971 1,095 1,271 1,323 1,604 1,847 Tax payable 98 70 51 51 51 51 Other current liabilities 18 17 15 15 15 15 Non-current liabilities 661 93 746 746 746 746 Long-term borrowings 575 0 634 634 634 634 Obligations under finance leases 43 41 53 53 53 53 Other non-current liabilities 43 52 59 59 59 59 Total liabilities 2,200 2,656 2,987 3,039 3,320 3,563 Share capital 142 142 142 142 142 142 Other reserves 2,295 2,384 2,422 2,593 2,905 3,339 Total shareholders equity 2,347 2,437 2,483 2,654 2,965 3,400 Minority interest 2 3 10 10 10 10 Total equity and liabilities 4,547 5,094 5,470 5,693 6,285 6,963 CASH FLOW 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (US$ mn) Operating Profit before taxation 248 179 221 234 399 557 Depreciation & amortization 232 220 509 954 1,025 1,095 Tax paid (79) (75) (66) (63) (88) (123) Change in working capital 93 146 (29) (120) (56) (197) Others 63 103 (382) 0 0 0 Net cash from operations 556 574 253 1,005 1,280 1,334 Investing Capital expenditure (113) (243) (800) (900) (400) (400) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others 47 (167) 325 0 0 0 Net cash from investing (66) (410) (475) (900) (400) (400) Financing Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 Proceeds from share issues 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share repurchases (2) (1) 0 0 0 0 Others (268) 250 59 0 0 0 Net cash from financing (270) 249 59 0 0 0 Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 769 914 1,316 1,113 1,218 2,098 Exchange difference (75) (10) 0 0 0 0 Cash at the end of the year 914 1,316 1,113 1,218 2,098 3,032 GROWTH 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Revenue 0.9% (7.4%) 6.1% 10.5% 14.3% 19.2% Gross profit 14.1% 5.1% 8.9% 13.7% 20.0% 23.8% Operating profit 74.0% (14.4%) 24.3% (15.4%) 57.4% 34.9% Net profit 24.5% (23.8%) 19.1% 10.6% 82.5% 39.5% PROFITABILITY 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Gross profit margin 16.9% 19.2% 19.7% 20.3% 21.3% 22.2% Operating margin 6.8% 6.3% 7.3% 5.6% 7.7% 8.8% Return on equity (ROE) 7.2% 5.4% 6.3% 6.6% 11.1% 13.7% GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Net debt to equity (x) na 0.0 na na na na Current ratio (x) 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.1 Receivable turnover days 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Inventory turnover days 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Payable turnover days 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VALUATION 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec P/E 31.7 42.2 35.4 32.0 17.5 12.6 P/B 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 Div yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. Note: The calculation of net cash includes financial assets. # Disclosures & Disclaimers # Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. 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