2023-09-13-富昌金融集团-东方甄选_01797.HK_分析报告_4页_494kb

报告摘要

Company Overview

Oriental Selection (01797.HK), formerly New Eastern Online, is a Hong Kong-listed company that shifted its focus from K-12 education to live streaming e-commerce after the "double reduction" policy in 2021. It now promotes agricultural products and other goods through platforms like Douyin (TikTok), Taobao, and WeChat, leveraging high-quality content to build brand loyalty. As of 2023, it has over 500 products, with multiple flagship accounts on social media, accumulating millions of fans and repeat customers.

Financial Performance and Assessment

2023 financial results show strong growth: total revenue of RMB 45.1 billion, up 401.9% year-on-year, with net profit rising to RMB 9.71 billion (up 281.9%).
Financial metrics: profitability (5/5), growth (5/5), but credit and cash flow capabilities rated 4/5.
Stock performance: Approximately -27.71% year-to-date compared to the Hang Seng Index (-8.52%), indicating volatility.

Strengths

Diversified traffic channels: Relied heavily on Douyin but expanded to platforms like Taobao, JD.com, and WeChat, reducing dependency and increasing sales (e.g., first Taobao event generated RMB 1.75 billion in sales).
Unique content and supply chain: Knowledge-based live streaming is a key differentiator, with agricultural products leading sales (32.6% of fresh produce in July 2023). Effective supply chain management, including partnerships with logistics providers like SF Express and JD Logistics, improved delivery times and reduced losses.

Weaknesses

Ongoing supply chain development: Delivers faster than Douyin's standard 48-hour timeframe but still lags behind competitors like Sam's Club in areas like one-hour delivery.
Intense competition and risks: Faces increasing competition in live streaming e-commerce; agricultural supply chains have challenges like standardization and transportation losses. Regulatory scrutiny in the online commerce sector could affect operations and profitability.

Investment Recommendation

Target price: HKD 45, with a "outperform" rating.
Projections for 2023-2025: Expected net profit of CNY 14 billion (2023), CNY 22 billion (2024), and CNY 26.4 billion (2025), growing at 44%, 57%, and 20% year-on-year.
Suggested strategy: Buy on dips and hold long-term if the company can manage expansion risks.

Risks

Market dynamics: Potential user fatigue on live streaming platforms, competition-driven pricing pressures, and evolving regulations in e-commerce could hinder growth.
Additional risks: High volatility in stock performance; all investments carry inherent risks, including regulatory changes.

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