美国传统基金会-朝鲜的核理论：可信的盾牌和宝剑（英）-2021.10-24页_243kb

North Korea's Nuclear Doctrine: Trusted Shield and Treasurer Sword

Core Content

North Korea's nuclear doctrine is centered on the idea of using nuclear weapons as both a defensive and offensive tool to achieve political and military objectives. The regime views its nuclear arsenal as essential for deterring external threats, especially from the United States, and as a means to project power and influence in the region. The doctrine has evolved alongside the development of North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities, reflecting a growing military threat and a more assertive posture in regional and global affairs.

Main Views

• Nuclear as a Political Tool: North Korea's nuclear program is not merely for deterrence but also serves as a bargaining chip and a means to assert its status as a nuclear power.
• Deterrence and Coercion: The regime uses nuclear threats to coerce South Korea and Japan into compliance and to undermine U.S. alliances.
• Warfighting Strategy: North Korea's nuclear capabilities now support a true warfighting strategy, including preemptive strikes, retaliatory strikes, and battlefield counter-force operations.
• Extended Deterrence Concerns: The ability of North Korea to target the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons raises concerns among allies about the U.S. commitment to their defense.
• Asymmetric Escalation: North Korea has developed the capability to threaten preemptive nuclear strikes, which could deter or counteract U.S. or South Korean conventional forces.

Key Information

North Korea's Strategic Objectives

• Leadership Legitimacy: Kim Jong-un has tied his authority to the success of the nuclear program, using it to bolster his image as a strong leader.
• Regime Survival: Nuclear weapons are seen as a guarantee against U.S. military aggression and regime change.
• Decoupling Alliances: North Korea aims to weaken the U.S.-South Korea and U.S.-Japan alliances by portraying U.S. military presence as a threat.
• Coercive Diplomacy: The regime uses nuclear threats to pressure South Korea and Japan into reducing military cooperation with the U.S.
• Unification: North Korea seeks to use nuclear weapons as a means to achieve its vision of unification on its own terms.

Evolution of the Nuclear Doctrine

• Early Denial: North Korea initially denied having nuclear weapons and kept its program secret.
• Self-Defense Deterrence: In 2003, the regime began publicly acknowledging its nuclear capability as a self-defense measure.
• Legal Codification: In 2012, North Korea amended its constitution to enshrine its status as a nuclear weapons state.
• Preemptive Strikes: The doctrine has shifted toward the use of preemptive nuclear attacks to deter or neutralize potential threats.
• Retaliatory Capabilities: North Korea now possesses the ability to conduct a retaliatory second strike and has developed a strategy to overwhelm U.S. missile defenses.

Nuclear and Missile Capabilities

• Advanced Missiles: North Korea is producing more accurate, mobile, and evasive missiles, including the KN-23, Hwasong-8, and Hwasong-15 ICBMs.
• SLBM Development: The regime has tested submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) such as the Pukguk-song-1 and Pukguksong-3, which could threaten U.S. and Japanese bases.
• Cruise Missiles: New long-range cruise missiles, such as the Hwasong-16, have been tested and could be used to threaten Japan and U.S. bases.
• Missile Defense Challenges: North Korea's missile technology is increasingly capable of evading U.S. missile defense systems like THAAD and Aegis.

Threats and Implications

• Targeting U.S. Bases and the Mainland: North Korea has demonstrated the ability to strike U.S. bases in South Korea, Japan, and the continental United States.
• Potential for Escalation: The risk of miscalculation and accidental escalation exists due to North Korea's aggressive behavior and limited intelligence capabilities.
• Allied Concerns: South Korea and Japan are increasingly skeptical about the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence, fearing abandonment in a crisis.
• Preemptive Strike Readiness: South Korea has developed its own preemptive strike capabilities, including the Kill Chain system and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan.

Conclusion

North Korea's nuclear doctrine has evolved from a covert program to a full-fledged warfighting strategy. The regime's nuclear and missile capabilities now threaten not only regional stability but also the security of the U.S. homeland. The U.S. must strengthen its alliance with South Korea and Japan to counter this growing threat and ensure that extended deterrence remains credible and effective.