20170724-穆迪服务-Credit_Outlook_21页_1mb

文档内容总结

核心内容

本文档是一份信用展望报告，主要分析了多家企业、银行及主权国家的信用状况及近期重大事件对信用评级的影响。内容涵盖企业并购、资本回报计划、资本要求调整等主题，对各实体的信用风险进行了评估。

主要观点

企业（Corporates）

1. McCormick's Acquisition of Reckitt Benckiser's Food Division

   • McCormick plans to acquire Reckitt Benckiser's food division for $4.2 billion.
   • The transaction will increase McCormick's leverage, leading to a potential credit downgrade.
   • Post-acquisition, McCormick's debt/EBITDA is projected to rise to 5.4x, from 2.5x previously.
   • Despite cost synergies and potential growth in key brands like Frank's RedHot, leverage is unlikely to return to pre-acquisition levels until at least 2020.

2. Wyndham's Acquisition of AmericInn

   • Wyndham plans to acquire AmericInn and Three Rivers Hospitality for $170 million.
   • The acquisition is credit positive as it diversifies Wyndham's brand portfolio without significantly affecting its leverage.
   • The deal is expected to have minimal impact on credit metrics due to its relatively small size.

3. XPO Logistics' Equity Offering

   • XPO raised $665.5 million through an equity offering, indicating a renewed focus on acquisitions.
   • This is a credit negative as it suggests potential leverage increases and reduced capital for debt repayment or investments.
   • XPO has been focusing on integration and cost savings since its 2015 acquisitions, which have improved its credit profile.

4. Reckitt Benckiser's Sale of Food Business

   • RB is selling its food business to McCormick for $4.2 billion, which is credit positive.
   • The proceeds will help RB accelerate its deleveraging, reducing leverage to 2.6x by 2019.
   • The food division contributes less than 4% to RB's adjusted operating profit, so the impact on its overall business is limited.

5. Guangzhou R&F's Acquisition of Dalian Wanda's Hotel Assets

   • Guangzhou R&F is acquiring 76 hotels and a 70% interest in another from Dalian Wanda for RMB19.9 billion.
   • The acquisition is credit negative as it may slow Guangzhou R&F's deleveraging efforts.
   • The company's debt leverage is expected to rise to 50%-60% by 2018, from 42% in 2016.
   • The transaction may diversify Guangzhou R&F's business by increasing non-property development revenue to 15% of total revenue by 2018.

银行（Banks）

1. US Banks' Capital Payouts

   • Most US banks plan to return more than 100% of their earnings to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
   • This is a credit negative as it may lower capital ratios, reducing their ability to absorb credit losses.
   • The median payout ratio is 107%, with share buybacks making up the majority of the capital returns.

2. E*TRADE's Share Repurchase and Tier 1 Leverage Reduction

   • E*TRADE announced a $1 billion share repurchase program and a 50-basis-point reduction in its Tier 1 leverage requirement.
   • These actions are credit negative as they reduce capital and cash available for debt repayment and investments.
   • The reduction is due to a shrinking loan portfolio and improved loan performance.

3. Kuwait Finance House and Ahli United Bank Merger

   • KFH is studying a merger with AUB, which would be credit positive due to potential economies of scale and expanded lending opportunities.
   • The merger could create the sixth-largest bank in the GCC, with $85 billion in total assets.
   • Integration challenges and changes in risk profile are potential risks.

4. Australian Banks' Stricter Capital Requirements

   • APRA raised the minimum CET1 ratio for Australian banks to 9.5% for the four major banks and 8.5% for Macquarie Bank.
   • This is a credit positive as it enhances bank resilience and reduces risk exposure.
   • The higher requirements are expected to take effect in early 2021, with banks aiming to exceed them by 2020.

主权国家（Sovereigns）

1. NAFTA Renegotiation

   • The renegotiation is unlikely to significantly alter trade flows, thus credit positive for Mexico.
   • Talks are scheduled to begin on 16 August 2017 and are expected to conclude in early 2018.

2. El Salvador Pays July Pension Obligations

   • El Salvador met its July pension obligations, which is a credit positive signal.

关键信息

• McCormick faces a credit downgrade due to increased leverage from its $4.2 billion acquisition.
• Wyndham benefits from diversifying its hotel portfolio without major leverage changes.
• XPO Logistics is restarting its acquisition strategy, which may lead to higher leverage.
• Reckitt Benckiser will benefit from accelerated deleveraging after selling its food division.
• Guangzhou R&F may see slowed deleveraging due to its hotel acquisition.
• US banks are returning more than 100% of earnings, leading to lower capital ratios and credit negatives.
• E*TRADE's share repurchase and lower leverage requirement are credit negative.
• KFH and AUB merger is credit positive for KFH, despite integration challenges.
• Australian banks face stricter capital requirements, which are credit positive for the sector.
• NAFTA renegotiation is unlikely to cause significant disruptions for Mexico.
• El Salvador met its pension obligations, indicating financial stability.