> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Summary ## Core Content China Hongqiao (1378 HK) reported a **39% YoY increase in net profit** to **RMB17.2bn** in 1H26, which aligns with its previously announced profit alert. Excluding the impact of fair value changes in CB, the **core net profit grew by 10% YoY** to **RMB16.3bn**. This growth was driven by **ASP-driven expansion** in the aluminum alloy products segment, which saw a **15% YoY revenue increase** to **RMB59.6bn**. The **unit gross profit** in this segment rose **81% YoY** to **~RMB8.2k/t**, supported by a **2.4% YoY decrease in unit cost** and a **19% YoY increase in ASP** to **RMB21.2k/t**. However, the **alumina segment** experienced a **22% YoY revenue decline** to **RMB16bn**, with a **28% YoY drop in ASP** to **RMB2.33k/t**, despite a **6% YoY cost reduction**, leading to an **84% YoY decline in unit gross profit** to **RMB146/t**. The **aluminum fabrication products segment** showed strong growth, with **41% YoY revenue increase** to **RMB16.7bn**, and **gross margin expanded by 8.9ppts YoY** to **32.2%**. The company has revised its **2026E–2028E net profit forecasts down by 6–7%**, due to **lower assumptions on alumina margins** and **higher expenses**. The **current valuation** of **5.8x–6.4x 2026E–2027E P/E** is seen as providing **buffer against potential ASP decline**. ## Key Financial Highlights - **1H26 Revenue**: RMB87.5bn (+8.0% YoY) - **1H26 Gross Profit**: RMB27.5bn (+32.3% YoY) - **1H26 Net Profit**: RMB17.2bn (+39.2% YoY) - **1H26 Recurring Net Profit**: RMB16.3bn (+9.6% YoY) - **Gross Margin (1H26)**: 31.5% (+5.8ppts YoY) - **Net Margin (1H26)**: 21.8% (+5.1ppts YoY) - **Effective Tax Rate (1H26)**: 24.0% (+0.3ppts YoY) ## Revenue Breakdown (1H26) - **Aluminum Alloy Products**: RMB59.6bn (+15% YoY) - **Alumina**: RMB16.1bn (-22% YoY) - **Aluminum Fabrication Products**: RMB11.4bn (+40.8% YoY) - **Steam**: RMB0.5bn (+9.1% YoY) ## Key Risks 1. **Unexpected removal of capacity cap in China** 2. **Faster-than-expected overseas capacity ramp-up** 3. **Global economic slowdown** 4. **Sharp increases in input costs such as bauxite and coal** ## Operating Assumptions - **Revenue Growth (2026E–2028E)**: - Aluminum Alloy Products: 16.3%–15.6% - Alumina: -29.6%–-28.6% - Aluminum Fabrication Products: 19.2%–18.6% - Steam: 4.2%–4.2% - **Unit Cost Changes**: - Aluminum Alloy Products: -3.9%–-3.9% - Alumina: -9.1%–-9.1% - Aluminum Fabrication Products: -3.5%–-3.5% - **Unit Gross Profit**: - Aluminum Alloy Products: RMB8.4k/t (+62.5% YoY) - Alumina: RMB124/t (-80.7% YoY) - Aluminum Fabrication Products: RMB5.3k/t (+39.5% YoY) ## Valuation and Target Price - **Target Price**: HK\$39.00 (down from HK\$45.00) - **P/E Ratio (2026E)**: 5.9x (down from 11x) - **P/B Ratio (2026E)**: 1.3x - **Current Price**: HK\$23.18 - **12-Month Price Performance**: - Absolute: -36.3% - Relative: -35.3% ## Shareholding Structure - **Shipping Trust Company (Zhang's family)**: 61.5% - **CITIC Group**: 5.7% - **Source**: HKEx ## Earnings Sensitivity - **Aluminum ASP Increase (5%)**: - 2026E Net Profit: +RMB26,475–+RMB43,039 - **Coal Cost Increase (5%)**: - 2026E Net Profit: +RMB25,389–+RMB41,953 - **External Tariff Increase (5%)**: - 2026E Net Profit: +RMB25,389–+RMB41,953 - **Bauxite Cost Increase (5%)**: - 2026E Net Profit: +RMB31,760–+RMB34,834 ## Financial Summary (2023A–2028E) | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |---------------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | **Revenue** | 133,624 | 156,169 | 162,354 | 171,381 | 165,591 | 162,033 | | **Gross Profit** | 20,955 | 42,163 | 41,505 | 55,622 | 50,469 | 46,786 | | **Adjusted Net Profit** | 11,461 | 24,565 | 26,418 | 33,671 | 31,047 | 28,743 | | **Total Assets** | 200,320 | 229,165 | 245,379 | 272,042 | 280,709 | 298,543 | | **Total Liabilities** | 94,064 | 110,552 | 103,669 | 108,366 | 103,118 | 107,995 | | **Total Shareholders Equity** | 92,245 | 107,800 | 132,593 | 151,228 | 162,073 | 172,187 | ## Cash Flow Summary - **Net Cash from Operations (2026E)**: RMB46.7bn - **Net Cash from Investing (2026E)**: -RMB9.3bn - **Net Cash from Financing (2026E)**: -RMB19.2bn - **Cash at the End of the Year (2026E)**: RMB69.4bn ## Growth Projections | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |---------------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | **Revenue Growth** | 1.5% | 16.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | -3.4% | -2.1% | | **Gross Profit Growth** | 14.9% | 101.2% | -1.6% | 34.0% | -9.3% | -7.3% | | **EBITDA Growth** | 12.7% | 72.5% | 3.1% | 29.9% | -6.6% | -6.4% | | **EBIT Growth** | 17.1% | 104.7% | 3.0% | 34.3% | -7.9% | -7.8% | | **Adj. Net Profit Growth** | 31.7% | 114.3% | 7.5% | 27.5% | -7.8% | -7.4% | ## Conclusion China Hongqiao's performance in 1H26 reflects **strong growth in the aluminum alloy products segment**, driven by **higher ASP and reduced unit costs**, while the **alumina segment** faced significant **declines in revenue and unit gross profit**. The **company's revised target price** and **valuation** suggest a **more conservative outlook**, factoring in **potential supply increases and input cost rises**. The **analysis highlights key risks** and **sensitivity to external factors**, such as **aluminum prices, coal costs, and tariffs**, which could impact future earnings. The **overall financial health** remains robust, with **positive cash flow** and **growing shareholder equity**, but the **outlook for 2027E and 2028E** is **more cautious** due to **economic and supply-side uncertainties**.