ASPI-反恐年鉴2021（英文）-2021.3-122页_7mb

2021 Counter-Terrorism Yearbook Summary

Core Content

The 2021 Counter-Terrorism Yearbook by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) provides an in-depth analysis of the evolving global terrorism landscape, the impact of online platforms and technology on radicalization, and the challenges of terrorism financing and the organized crime nexus. It also explores strategies for preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE), emphasizing the need for coordinated, evidence-based approaches.

Main Authors and Contributors

• Thomas Morgan, Olivia Adams, and Dr David Hammond – Global Terrorism Index 2020
• Dr John Battersbry – Terrorism in New Zealand
• Christopher Winter and Ramón Spaaij – Lone Actor Terrorism
• Jeremy Douglas and Niki Esse de Lang – Southeast Asia during the pandemic
• Levi J West – The impact of technology on extremism
• Elise Thomas – Boogaloo Bois: from memes to violence
• Dr Joshua Sinai – Hoax devices in terrorist attacks
• Dr Gordon Hook – Terrorist financing and global initiatives
• Sylvia Laksmi – Indonesia-Australia collaboration
• Dr John Coyne, Daria Impiombato, and Dr Alexandra Phelan – Terrorism and organized crime nexus
• Professor Michele Grossman – Resilience to violent extremism
• Commander Sandra Booth and Dr Natalie Davis – Operational perspectives
• Deputy Commissioner Ross Guenther and Debra Smith – Practitioner-academic partnerships
• Pia van de Zandt, Aftab Malik, and Madeleine Coorey – New South Wales approach
• Angel Adams – The new far right in multicultural Australia
• Peta Lowe – Young people and violent extremism during the pandemic
• Lydia Khalil – Natural disasters and violent extremism
• Professor Boaz Ganor – Israel's counter-terrorism strategy

Key Themes and Findings

1. Global Terrorism Landscape

• The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2020 indicates a 59% decrease in terrorism-related deaths from over 33,000 in 2014 to under 14,000 in 2019.
• ISIL's decline and increased counterterrorism coordination have contributed to this reduction.
• Far-right terrorism has increased significantly, from 14% of Western attacks in 2002 to 46% in 2019.
• Politically motivated terrorism has grown from 13 deaths in 2014 to 90 in 2019.
• The Christchurch mosque attacks (2019) are highlighted as a case of far-right ideology and online radicalization.

2. Online Platforms and Technology

• Social media and online communities have become critical tools for radicalization and incitement.
• The Boogaloo Bois movement demonstrates how online memes can evolve into real-world violence.
• Emerging technologies such as unmanned aerial platforms, 3D printing, AI, and deep fakes are being exploited by terrorists.
• Biological agents and hoax devices are of growing concern, with their impact sometimes rivaling that of real weapons.

3. Terrorism Financing and Organized Crime Nexus

• Terrorist financing has evolved from small remittances to large-scale activities such as oil and gas sales, real estate investments, and offshore tax havens.
• The GTI reports a decline in the economic impact of terrorism, from US$104 billion in 2014 to US$26.4 billion in 2019, primarily due to the decline of ISIL in Iraq and Syria.
• Legal and compliance gaps remain globally, leading to few convictions for terrorist financing.
• Collaboration between Australia and Indonesia is recommended to combat financial flows to terrorist groups.

4. Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism

• Community resilience is a key factor in countering violent extremism.
• P/CVE strategies must be well-coordinated, involving governments, law enforcement, and social science researchers.
• Trust and transparency in decision-making processes are essential for effective P/CVE.
• Covid-19 has exacerbated social and economic inequalities, potentially increasing the risk of violent extremism.

5. Operational and Policy Implications

• The Australian Government has introduced measures such as extended supervision orders to manage the release of high-risk terrorist offenders.
• New Zealand's Royal Commission into the Christchurch mosque attacks emphasized the importance of community cohesion and leadership in countering extremism.
• Natural disasters can increase the likelihood of terrorism-related deaths and attacks in the following two years.
• Government responses to crises, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, must be transparent and effective to prevent the rise of grievances that could lead to violent extremism.

Key Recommendations

• Governments should monitor and regulate emerging technologies to prevent their misuse by terrorists.
• Stronger legal frameworks and compliance mechanisms are needed to combat terrorism financing.
• Collaboration between nations and sectors is vital for addressing the organised crime-terrorism nexus.
• P/CVE strategies should be developed as a whole-of-systems approach, involving communities, businesses, and law enforcement.
• Investment in counterterrorism and security capabilities must continue to ensure public safety and national resilience.

Disclaimer and Funding

• The yearbook is not affiliated with the Australian Government and reflects the personal views of the authors.
• ASPI remains independent in research and editorial decisions.
• Funding sources are detailed in the Annual Report and acknowledgements of individual publications.

Conclusion

The 2021 yearbook underscores the complex and evolving nature of terrorism, the role of technology in radicalization, and the need for integrated, multi-sector strategies to counter it. It calls for greater coordination, transparency, and innovation in counterterrorism policies to ensure long-term security and resilience.