> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** 宏观专题 # 宏观经济深度研究 # 中等发达国家的丰富内涵与政策指向 “穷则独善其身，达则兼济天下。”出自《孟子》，本为修身之道，用于国家层面，同样揭示了一条发展逻辑——从有余到有为。IMF 国家分类实践也提供了印证，经济规模和人均收入只是“发达国家”的表层指标，真正构成“发达”内涵的，是结构是否稳固，制度是否透明，社会是否包容，创新是否持久。财富水平可以衡量一个国家有多富裕，而文明能力才可以决定一个国家有多发达。这一点在中国式现代化道路上体现得尤为清晰。中国正在进入一个“底线稳固、上限打开”的新阶段。底线强调安全、稳定、韧性，重在托住14亿人口的基本生活、就业和预期，上限指向科技创新、制度完善、社会进步，重在抬升潜在增速、开放能力与文明辐射。其内在支撑，是“投资于物”与“投资于人”的紧密结合，是“物的现代化”与“人的现代化”的同向发力。经济要有足够的承载力，社会要有足够的包容度，文明要有足够的温度，一个国家才能在真正意义上达到“发达”的层级。 什么是发达国家？富裕不等于发达。简言之，高收入国家并不一定是发达国家。“十五五”规划建议提出，到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，而厘清“中等发达国家”的真正内涵，是理解未来十年中国发展方向的基础前提。从数量目标看，人均GDP接近或达到2万美元，是迈向中等发达国家的重要起点，对应未来十年中国经济需保持年均约 $4.2\%$ 的增速。然而，仅凭收入并不足以界定发达程度。观察IMF的国家分类体系可以发现，许多经济体尽管已跻身高收入行列，却未能进入IMF认定的“发达经济体”范围。IMF在《世界经济展望》中明确指出，该分类并非依据单一量化门槛，而是综合评估经济结构的多元化程度、制度体系的成熟度、社会基础的普及性以及融入全球金融体系的深度。换言之，收入水平只是观察起点，结构成熟、制度可靠、社会包容与创新持续才是判断核心，这也解释了为何许多高收入国家依然停留在“富裕但未发达”的阶段。 从经济结构来看，IMF指出如果一个经济体出口高度集中，即便人均GDP可观，也难以满足“发达经济体”的要求。资源型国家往往依赖单一大宗商品，产业链条较短，抗外部冲击能力较弱，对全球价格波动高度敏感，难以在跨周期竞争中形成稳定优势。制度质量同样具有重要影响。政策透明度、法治水平、治理能力、行政体系的稳定程度以及政策执行的一致性，共同构成支撑长期增长的制度基础。一些高收入经济体在这一维度存在明显短板。不仅如此，社会运行的包容度也是发达程度的重要标志。现代经济体系需要广泛社会参与和普遍可及的公共服务，例如公共教育、基础医疗、无障碍环境、就业流动渠道以及对弱势群体权利的切实保障，共同塑造社会文明的广度与温度。最后，创新能力则决定一个经济体在科技创新周期中的位置。发达经济体通常拥有持续稳定的科研投入、较高水平的人才储备、顺畅的科技转化机制以及与之匹配的制度环境。当前，在第四次科技革命蓄势待发的背景下，人工智能、清洁能源、生命科学等领域的竞争加速演进，技术扩散、产业升级和创新能力，也正成为区分“高收入国家”与“发达经济体”的关键变量。 什么是中等？中等不等于中间。“中等”并不指向一个模糊的中间地带，而是一个具有明确结构特征、能力门槛与文明定位的发展阶段。基于横向比较，“中等”意味着一个国家在经济规模、产业体系、制度成熟度和社会文明能力等方面，已经摆脱初级发展阶段的脆弱性，具备基本稳定与普遍可及的现代制度安排，同时处于可以向更高水平发达迈进的上升通道。 从结构角度看，“中等”意味着经济体系已具备较为完整的产业链与产业体系， 2025年12月23日 程实，博士 (852) 2683 3231 shi.cheng@icbci.com 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.com # 相关研究： 12/16/2025：《每一代人都有自己的Labubu——从新需求×新供给看中国消费新格局》 12/12/2025：《格物致知，成势在人——投资于物和投资于人的时代逻辑》 12/11/2025：《利率下行，风险上行——2025年12月美联储议息会议点评》 12/5/2025：《人工智能浪潮中的真实与泡影》 11/24/2025：《在临界中博弈路径——2026年全球大类资产展望》 11/21/2025：《在交汇中重塑平衡——2026年香港经济展望》 11/20/2025：《在变化中破局开新——2026年中国经济展望》 11/17/2025：《在混沌中构建秩序——2026年全球经济展望》 10/30/2025：《加速降息进行时——2025年10月美联储议息会议点评》 10/22/2025：《从安倍经济学到早苗经济学》 10/14/2025：《创新的力量——2025年诺贝尔经济学奖点评》 10/14/2025：《货币政策跨境传导的美元渠道》 9/30/2025：《顺应民心所向，激发内需动能》 9/18/2025：《规则之外，预期之内——2025年9月美联储议息会议点评》 9/11/2025：《老去的债务与新生的风险》 8/27/2025：《厚积薄发，静水流深-人工智能+的微观观察与宏观潜能》 8/25/2025：《以变应变：美联储政策的转折与框架的回归——2025年Jackson Hole会议点评》 既有跨周期运行的韧性，又在向高端制造业、高附加值服务业不断延伸。从制度角度看，“中等”反映出治理体系已经构建起基本透明、相对稳定的规则框架，宏观政策具备一定的前瞻性与连续性，公共治理的精细化程度与效力正在逐步提高。从社会角度看，“中等”体现为教育、医疗、社保和公共服务覆盖大多数人口，社会流动渠道基本畅通，但在公平性、可及性与服务质量方面仍有提升空间。从文明角度看，“中等”意味着精神文明建设、公共理性培育、文化创新能力已有显著进展。从国际功能看，“中等”代表国家已经可以在区域和全球层面提供一定公共产品，但系统化的全球公共品供给能力尚需进一步强化。由此可见，“中等”是一种阶段性能力的写照。进入“中等发达”阶段，意味着发展底盘已基本筑牢，但文明能力、科技实力与治理水平仍有可以提升的空间。 中国如何走向中等发达国家？底线稳固、上限打开。在“全球—时间”坐标中审视中国的发展道路，可以看到中国式现代化试图回答一个比“如何变得更富裕”而更深层的问题——如何在一个人口规模巨大、区域差异显著、历史积淀独特的国家内部，构建一种持续、稳健、普惠的现代文明形态。“底线稳固、上限打开”构成了这一问题的核心逻辑。底线是文明秩序、安全稳定与基本生活的长期可守，上限通过创新、改革、开放与文明建设，不断拓展发展空间、提升发展质量。中国式现代化提出的五大特征，正是这一逻辑在结构、制度、社会与文明维度上的展开。 首先是人口规模巨大的现代化。人口广覆盖是中国式现代化最鲜明的约束，也是最独特的优势。任何国家的现代化都需要构建普惠的公共服务体系，而在中国这一人口和地域尺度上，公共服务的均衡供给、城乡差异的逐步缩小、区域发展的协调推进，都被放大为全球罕见的治理命题。人口规模、地理格局、城乡结构与区域发展水平叠加，使得现代化必须在高度复杂的内部结构中保持整体推进。无论是大城市群的治理与更新，还是欠发达地区的教育、医疗和基础设施的供给，抑或是跨区域人口流动的制度安排，都需要纳入统一的现代化框架。覆盖面有多广，现代化的厚度就有多深，中国能否成为中等发达国家，很大程度上取决于这一广覆盖能力能否真正落地。 其次是全体人民共同富裕的现代化。增长成果如何在社会内部扩散，是中国式现代化能否形成长期稳定结构的关键。共同富裕强调通过制度化安排提升人力资本、优化收入分配、扩大中等收入群体、增强社会流动性，使经济增长的红利能在更广泛人群中实现累积。技术变革加速、人口老龄化加深、城乡空间重构等因素叠加，使得分配结构面临新的挑战。能否在不同区域、不同群体之间形成兼具效率与公平的分配格局，关系到社会稳定，也关系到消费潜力挖掘、创新活力培育和全要素生产率提升。 第三是物质文明和精神文明相协调的现代化。物质基础提供底气，精神文明塑造气质。微观层面，收入提升改善了个体生活条件。宏观层面，精神文明、公共理性、社会信任与价值体系决定社会的运转质量。中国式现代化一方面推动产业升级、技术进步和基础设施完善，另一方面通过文化建设、教育提升、社会治理现代化与文明实践活动，增强社会的内在凝聚力。 第四是人与自然和谐共生的现代化。发展方式能否转向可再生、可持续，已经成为判定一个国家能否在未来保持竞争力的重要维度。中国式现代化将绿色转型、生态文明建设和低碳发展上升为长期战略任务，通过“双碳”引导能源、产业和技术结构的深度调整。生态环境治理体系的完善、城市更新与存量优化的推进、绿色技术与绿色产业的扩展，为经济增长更新了边界条件。这一发展路径注重代际平衡，使现代化进程在代际维度上具备可持续性，在资源维度上具备可承受性。 最后是走和平发展道路的现代化。和平发展既是中国式现代化的对外原则，也是维护内部稳定预期的重要条件。在“世界变乱交织、动荡加剧”的背景下，中国通过坚持合作共赢、推动制度性开放、参与全球治理，为自身发展争取相对 稳定的外部环境。稳定的国际关系、稳健的宏观政策框架和可预期的发展路径，为中国在全球体系中的长期参与提供支撑。 综合而言，对于一个拥有14亿人口的国家，“中等发达”不仅标志着基本走出了“塔西佗陷阱”“中等收入陷阱”和“修昔底德陷阱”，更代表着底线更加稳固、上限不断拓展。在这一发展阶段，中国既要守住“独善其身”的安全与稳定，也要逐步具备“兼济天下”的能力与担当，从有余走向有为。正因如此，中等发达国家的定位将成为中国式现代化道路上承上启下的关键阶梯。 # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或"我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其裁明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2025版权所有。保留一切权利。 # 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