2025-02-09-世界银行-难民住房补贴_约旦生活成果和社会融合的实验证据（英）_112页_1mb

Housing Subsidies for Refugees: Experimental Findings in Jordan

Introduction

This study investigates a direct housing assistance program for Syrian refugees in Jordan, aiming to assess its impact on recipients' life outcomes and social integration with host communities. Conducted as a field experiment with a randomized control trial (RCT) design, the program offered full rental subsidies and landlord incentives for housing improvements to 2,870 households. Despite high interest, take-up was moderate (33%). The research uses survey data collected over three and a half years to examine economic, psychological, and social effects.

Key Findings

The program had limited benefits overall:

• No significant positive impacts were found on consumption, adult mental health, or housing quality.
• Rental expenditures decreased, but other living standard measures showed no improvement.
• A concerning decline in child socio-emotional well-being was observed.
• Negative effects included reduced food security and increased child hunger in some cases.

Host community attitudes also worsened:

• Jordanian neighbors showed deteriorated perceptions of refugees, with a significant decrease in social attitudes toward them.
• This "backlash effect" persisted even after the program ended, suggesting long-term social cohesion damage.

The study contrasts these findings with expert predictions and highlights limitations in improving refugee lives through such subsidies, emphasizing the need for alternative aid strategies that minimize host community tension.

Policy Implications

Designers of aid programs must consider that housing subsidies may yield null or negative outcomes, potentially straining social ties. Cash transfers, while less visible, may offer a better chance at reducing backlash. Future interventions should explore innovative approaches to support refugees without centralizing benefits in ways that exacerbate social divisions.