美国电网可靠性和安全评估（英）_73页_6mb

Grid Reliability Analysis Summary (Plant Closures Scenario)

Based on the U.S. Department of Energy's analysis of grid reliability in the Plant Closures scenario for 2030, here are the key conclusions:

• Loss of Load Hours (LOLH):

  • In the current system (2024), average annual LOLH was 8.1 hours.
  • In the Plant Closures scenario, LOLH jumped to 817 hours per year, marking a 100-fold increase.

• Normalized Unserved Energy (NUSE):

  • The current system had a NUSE of approximately 0.0005%.
  • In the Plant Closures scenario, NUSE increased to 0.0465%, exceeding the threshold by an order of magnitude.

• Generation Retirements:
  Assumptions include 104GW of announced retirements, predominantly in coal (71GW) and natural gas (25GW), aligning with projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

• Load Growth:
  Future load projections assume 50GW of new data center capacity, alongside other non-data center loads, leading to a peak load increase from 774GW to 889GW by 2030.

• Regional Vulnerabilities:
  The analysis identifies five RTOs (regions) facing significant reliability concerns through 2030 due to combined effects of resource retirements and load growth:

• Key Findings:
  Future fossil retirements combined with data center load will likely lead to extreme reliability challenges, with projections spanning from 3.8 hours to over 1,052 hours of system stress.