2025-05-20-Jefferies-宝盛银行（BAER）_2025年4月1.3亿瑞士法郎增量贷款损失拨备；客户活动使损益表线下项目受益_7页_196kb
报告摘要
Julius Baer (BAER SW) 4M25 Summary
Core Content
Julius Baer (BAER SW) released its 4M25 update, highlighting key financial and operational developments. The report outlines a new CHF130m incremental loan loss charge due to an ongoing review of its loan book, including mortgages and private debt. It also details changes to its risk function, including the appointment of a new Chief Risk Officer (CRO) and the establishment of a new compliance function.
Key Financial Performance
- AuM (Assets Under Management): CHF467bn at the end of 4M25, slightly below the end-FY24 level of CHF497bn.
- Net Net Margin (NNM): Annualised NNM at +2.5%, which is modestly weaker than the +3.0% consensus.
- Gross Margin: Underlying gross margin at 87bps, 3bps ahead of the consensus (~84bps). Gross margin rose from 80bps in 2H24.
- Adjusted CIR (Capital Income Ratio): At 66%, 7bps below the consensus of ~70%.
- Pre-Tax Margin: At 29bps, 5bps above the consensus of 24bps.
- CET1 Ratio: Improved to 15.2% from 14.2%, benefiting from the deconsolidation of the Brazil book.
Operational Highlights
- Client Activity: Strong client activity levels supported better performance in gross and pre-tax margins.
- Geographic Inflows: Inflows from Asia (Hong Kong and Singapore) and Western Europe (UK and Germany) contributed to NNM growth.
- Currency Impact: A significant negative currency impact of CHF28bn and deconsolidation of Brazil (CHF8bn) led to a 6% reduction in AuM from end-FY24.
Risk Function Changes
- New CRO: Oliver Bartholet is retiring, and Ivan Ivanic, former CRO of UBS in Asia, will take over from 1-Jul.
- Compliance Function: A new compliance function will report directly to BAER's CEO.
Outlook and Strategy Update
- IFRS Net Profit: BAER expects its IFRS net profit for 1H25 to be less than that of 1H24, due to the incremental loan loss charge, deconsolidation of Brazil, and a normalization of the tax rate.
- Strategy Update: The company will provide a strategy update on 3-Jun.
Investment Recommendation
- Rating: HOLD
- Price Target: CHF56.00, which is -2% from the current price of CHF57.34.
- Price Range: CHF65.04 (52-week high) to CHF43.75 (52-week low).
Valuation Methodology
- Primary Approach: Gordon growth model with a terminal growth rate of 2% and a cost of equity of 11%.
- Key Upside Risks: Stronger macro environment, stronger capital markets, better flows in Wealth Management, higher loan book and NIM.
- Key Downside Risks: Weaker market returns, deterioration in NNM, further margin decline, cost inefficiencies, litigation and regulatory fines.
Analyst Disclosures
- Analysts: Tom Mills, Fangfei Li, and Laura Gris Trillo have certified the views in the report.
- Conflict of Interest: Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with the companies mentioned.
- Regulatory Information: The report is subject to various regulatory disclosures depending on the jurisdiction, and is not tailored to individual investors.
Other Important Disclosures
- Distribution: The report is distributed by Jefferies entities in different jurisdictions, including the US, Canada, UK, Germany, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, India, and Australia.
- Legal Compliance: The report is intended for professional or institutional investors in certain regions and may not be suitable for retail investors.
- No Investment Advice: The report is a general discussion of the merits and risks of the securities and does not constitute investment advice.
Summary of Key Points
- Loan Loss Charge: CHF130m incremental charge due to a review of the loan book.
- Client Activity: Strong client inflows contributed to better margins.
- CET1 Ratio: Improved to 15.2% from 14.2% due to deconsolidation of the Brazil book.
- Risk Function Changes: New CRO appointed; compliance function established.
- Outlook: IFRS net profit for 1H25 is expected to be lower than 1H24.
- Investment Rating: HOLD with a price target of CHF56.00.
- Valuation Risks: Market volatility, regulatory changes, and operational challenges remain key risks.
Table: Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | Actual (4M25) | 4M24 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Period end AuM (CHF bn) | 467 | 471 | 470 |
| Annualised NNM/AuM | 2.5% | 0.7% | 3.0% |
| Gross margin (bps) | 79 (87 excl. credit loss) | "Close to 89 bps" | 84 |
| adj. CIR | 72% (66% excl. credit loss) | "just over 69%" | 69.6% |
| Pre-tax margin (bps) | 21 (29 excl. credit loss) | 27 | - |
| CET1 ratio | 15.2% | 15.3% | - |
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