> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** January 15, 2026 # Morning Insight: January 15, 2026 Linlin Gao Certification: Z0002332 gaolinlin@ghtt.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact) Certification: F03133175 wuyuchen@ghtt.com # Main Body # Commodity Market Insight: Nickel: Confrontation between industrial fundamentals and secondary-market capital is driving wide-range volatility in nickel prices. Although spot fundamentals remain weak, with oversupply pressure resonating with expectations of new low-cost hydrometallurgical capacity coming online, market pricing is mainly anchored to Indonesian nickel ore policy and a noticeable increase in secondary-market attention to commodities, with ample liquidity supporting fund rotation and catch-up buying sentiment driven by policy-related news from Indonesia. From an industrial perspective, given Indonesia's history of frequent and flexible policy adjustments and the practical reality of a quota transition period in the first quarter, the market remains cautious toward quota policy outcomes; meanwhile, from a fundamental standpoint, margin recovery is encouraging supply restarts, import arbitrage has returned to positive territory, and futures prices carry a substantial premium over NPI, with hedging pressure and arbitrage flows constraining upside price elasticity. From a secondary-market perspective, however, the dominant framework remains long-term buying on dips, with greater focus on the end of the "dividend" cycle in which low-cost ore attracted smelting investment, the possibility of cyclical policy shifts in the future, and the reinforcing effect of multiple Indonesian policy measures that more clearly signal Indonesia's intention and means to support resource prices. As a result, during a short-term policy vacuum, the burden of near-term fundamental pressure and the narrative of cyclical transition are unlikely to fully outweigh each other, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range amid the tug-of-war between the two types of capital, with marginal direction hinging on guidance from Indonesian government statements. From a trading perspective, outright directional trades have become more challenging, and strategies combining options are recommended, while during periods of intensified capital confrontation, attention should be paid to emerging structural opportunities, including domestic-overseas arbitrage when import margins are elevated and arbitrage linked to fluctuations in the nickel-NPI basis. Tin: Tin prices have continued to strengthen in recent days, with the market hitting the daily limit up at an $8 \%$ gain yesterday morning, before reopening during the night session and gapping higher again, with gains at one point approaching $11 \%$ . From a fundamental perspective, as noted previously, persistently tight tin supply, relatively depleted hidden inventories of both tin ore and refined tin domestically, and the relatively low price sensitivity of downstream demand remain the core foundations supporting this rally. In addition, news of a landslide in Walikale, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, may have provided further momentum, as Walikale is home to the Bisie mine, one of the country’s key tin- producing regions, and recent heavy rainfall has renewed concerns over local supply disruptions. In terms of scale, the Bisie mine experienced a one- month shutdown in 2025 due to armed conflict, with marginal output losses of less than 2,000 tonnes, and the impact of the current natural disaster is likely smaller, suggesting limited actual supply disruption. From a trading perspective, it is also notable that yesterday marked the first instance in nearly a month of prices rising alongside declining open interest, indicating more pronounced short covering and forced stop- losses as prices were pushed higher at historical highs. Looking ahead, we believe tin prices still have room to rise, though attention should be paid to potential profit-taking pressure near the psychological level of RMB 450,000 per tonne. Chart 1: Market Snapshot <table><tr><td colspan="3">Market Snapshot</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 300 Index Futures</td><td>4766.2</td><td>-0.63%</td></tr><tr><td>SSE 50 Index Futures</td><td>3136.6</td><td>-0.79%</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 500 Index Futures</td><td>8172.8</td><td>0.64%</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 1000 Index Futures</td><td>8233.8</td><td>0.08%</td></tr><tr><td>30Y T-bond Futures</td><td>111.4</td><td>-0.04%</td></tr><tr><td>10Y T-bond Futures</td><td>107.9</td><td>0.08%</td></tr><tr><td>5Y T-bond Futures</td><td>105.6</td><td>0.04%</td></tr><tr><td>2Y T-bond Futures</td><td>102.3</td><td>0.00%</td></tr></table> Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # Open Interest Chart 2: Open Interest of IF Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 3: Open Interest of IH Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 4: Open Interest of IC Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 5: Open Interest of IM Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # News Highlights: 1. South China's island province of Hainan reported a record-breaking 14.727 billion kilowatt-hours in green electricity and green certificate transactions in 2025, the provincial power exchange center said on Wednesday. The figure represents an 8.9-fold increase from the 1.488 billion kilowatt-hours traded in 2024, injecting strong momentum into the green, low-carbon development of the Hainan Free Trade Port, the center noted. Together, the transactions equated to a standard coal consumption reduction of approximately 5.89 million tonnes and a carbon dioxide emissions cut of about 14.68 million tonnes. Green electricity is power that is generated with near-zero carbon dioxide emissions, and is primarily generated by the sun, wind, or other renewable sources. Green certificates are the sole proof of renewable energy consumption, with each certificate marking 1,000 kilowatt-hours of green electricity. A province rich in wind and solar resources, Hainan has accelerated its transformation into a clean energy island and refined its green electricity trading mechanism. (Source: Xinhua) 2. Chinese authorities on Wednesday announced the extension of a preferential individual income tax policy to support residents replacing their homes. The policy will take effect from Jan. 1, 2026 and conclude on Dec. 31, 2027, according to a joint announcement issued by the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. Under the arrangement, taxpayers who sell their self-owned homes and purchase another home within one year will be eligible for a refund of the individual income tax already paid on the sale. A full refund will be granted if the purchase price of the new home is equal to or higher than the selling price of the original home. If the new home is purchased at a lower price, the tax refund will be issued on a proportional basis. To qualify for the preferential policy, both the sale and the purchase of the homes must take place within the same city. Additionally, the taxpayer who sells the self-owned home must be the owner or one of the co-owners of the newly purchased home. (Source: Xinhua) 3. The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, announced on Wednesday that it will conduct a 900-billion-yuan (about 128.35 billion U.S. dollars) outright reverse repo operation on Thursday to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. The operation will be carried out with a fixed quantity through interest-rate bidding, with winning bids determined at multiple price levels. It will have a tenor of six months, or 181 days, according to the central bank. Outright reverse repo operations -- a tool the central bank introduced in October 2024 to manage liquidity in the national banking system -- are conducted each month with a tenor of no more than one year. These operations have enriched the country's monetary policy toolkit, complementing previous measures such as temporary repos, temporary reverse repos, and the buying and selling of treasury bonds. (Source: Chart 6: Upcoming Important Economic Data Calendar <table><tr><td>2026/1/19</td><td>National Economic Performance Monthly Report on Industrial Production Operation Monthly Report on Energy Production Monthly Report on Investment in Fixed Assets (Excluding Rural Households) Monthly Report on Investment in Real Estate Development Monthly Report on Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods Monthly Report on Sales Price Indexes of Commercial Residential Buildings Quarterly Report on Households' Income and Consumption Expenditure Quarterly Report on Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/20</td><td>Preliminary Accounting Report on Quarterly Value-Added of Major Industries</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/27</td><td>Monthly Report on Industrial Economic Benefits</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/30</td><td>Quarterly Report on Business Revenue of Enterprises Above the Designated Size Engaged in Culture and Related Industries</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/31</td><td>Monthly Report on Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI)</td></tr></table> Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. 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