20180213-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_10页_314kb

报告摘要

EM STRATEGY DAILY SUMMARY - 13 February 2018

Core Content Overview

This document is a daily strategy report from BNP Paribas focusing on Emerging Markets (EM), with insights on South Africa, Turkey, and India. It also includes Asia Strategy recommendations and details on EM Strategy contacts, online resources, and legal notices.

Main Recommendations

South Africa

Recommendation: Receive ZAR 2y2y forward rates.
Target: 7.00%
Stop Loss: 7.80%
Carry/roll-down: +11bp per 3 months
Reasoning:
- The ZAR has shown resilience despite a recent decline in the ZAR-USD rate differential and a rebound in USD strength.
- The ZAR's net international investment position (IIP) has turned positive since 2015, indicating locals hold more foreign assets than foreigners hold in SA.
- This 'under-owning' of SA assets by foreigners is expected to continue supporting inflows.
- The C/A deficit has improved, contributing to the ZAR's stability.

Asia

Recommendation: Buy SGD vs. JPY.
Reasoning:
- The SGDJPY pair has recently pulled back.
- The market is not pricing significant risk of MAS tightening in April.
- The safe-haven demand for JPY is surprisingly weak.
- The trade is suitable for short-term volatility absorption but may underperform in prolonged risk-aversion scenarios.

Key Market Observations

USD

USD is weaker against JPY and EUR.
UST and Bund yields are not rising, suggesting weak risk appetite.
Real rates remain elevated, contributing to volatility.

Turkey

Weak demand observed in 5y fixed-coupon bond auction, with a bid-cover ratio significantly below the long-term average.
Treasury will issue 2y and 10y fixed coupon bonds and a 2y rent certificate.
A bid-cover ratio of 2.6 for 10y bonds in January indicates potential for weak demand again.

India

January CPI inflation cooled slightly to 5.1% y/y, still near a multi-year high.
Above the RBI’s 4% medium-term target.
The RBI remains moderately hawkish, warning of inflation risks.
Expect two 25bp hikes in H2 to push the repo rate to 6.50% by year-end.

Supporting Charts

Chart 1

Shows ZAR's 1-week realised returns during a turbulent period for risky assets.
Returns did not fall below 1 std. dev. from the long-term average, indicating resilience.

Chart 2

Illustrates South Africa's net IIP turning positive since end-2015.
Reflects a shift where locals increased foreign asset ownership while foreigners reduced exposure to SA assets.

Contacts

Strategist	Job Title	Legal Entity	Phone Number
Piotr Chwieczak	FX&IR CEEMEA Strategy	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 8715
Sai Ulluri	FX&IR CEEMEA Strategy	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 1872
Mirza Baig	Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy	BNP Paribas Singapore Branch	+65 6210 3262
Erkin Isik, CFA	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. (Istanbul)	+90 216 635 2987
Wike Groenenberg	Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 8746
Marcelo Carvalho	Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3418
Gabriel Gersztein	Head FX & IR Latam Strategy	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3421
Samuel Castro	FX & IR Latam Strategist	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3492
Gustavo Mendonca	FX & IR Latam Strategist	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3445

Legal & Regulatory Information

The document is non-independent research for UK FCA rules and is considered a marketing communication under MiFID II.
It does not constitute investment research and is not subject to independence requirements.
It may include "Research" as defined under MiFID II unbundling rules, which is intended for firms that have signed up to BNP Paribas research packages or are out of scope of the rules.
Steer™ is a trademark of BNP Paribas.
Conflicts of Interest: BNP Paribas may have financial interests in the issuers, including positions in their securities or derivatives.
No Fiduciary Duty: BNP Paribas does not provide financial, legal, or tax advice.
Performance Data: Simulated performance data is included, but not indicative of future results.
Confidentiality: The information is provided on a strictly confidential basis and may not be copied or distributed without prior written consent.
US Disclosures:
- Options and ETFs discussed are not suitable for all investors.
- Some securities may not be registered under US securities laws and are restricted.
- BNPPSC is responsible for distributing the report to U.S. persons who qualify under FINRA rules.

Online Resources

BNP Paribas Global Markets Website: www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com
BNP Paribas Strategy Website: [Strategy Website](Strategy Website)

Bloomberg

Research Area	Bloomberg Code
Fixed Income Research	BPFR
G10 Interest Rate Research	BPBS
Market Economics	BPEC

Disclaimer

The document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or issue securities.
No guarantees are made regarding accuracy or completeness.
No liability is accepted for any losses arising from the use of the document.
All estimates and opinions are as of the document's date and may change without notice.
The information may be subject to conflicts of interest due to BNP Paribas' activities in the financial markets.

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