2022-12-06-莱坊-Zambia_Market_Update_H1_2022_4页_2mb

报告摘要

Zambia Market Update H1 2022

Economy: Steadily recovering; inflation decreased to 9.7% in June 2022 from 10.2% previously.
IMF Agreement: Approved US$1.3 billion 38-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Zambia.
Exchange Rate: Zambian Kwacha appreciated against the US Dollar (+18.5% since January 2022).
GDP Growth: H1 2022 growth was slow, with overall recovery expected upon full implementation of staff-level agreement with the IMF.

Market activity significantly reduced due to the COVID-19 crisis and a worsening economy.
Zambian Kwacha strengthened trading between ZK26-27/$ during Q1 2022.
First signs of real estate market revival expected.

Rentals stable (US$15-18/A, US$10-14/B per sq. m.).
Occupancy rates around 65% but lagging due to oversupply.
Grade A/B office space taking up in key areas (Mansa Hill, Kasama Kasama, Lusaka). New projects under construction/launched include Protea Marriott (Ciela Resorts), and Radisson Hotel Livingstone.

Continued demand for well-located older/mid-1st tier city properties.
Prime rentals stable due to expatriates, stable population growth (~3% annually), and demand for apartments (redevelopment/re-purposing).
Prime residential remains stable. Development activity preferred self-build due to past financing costs; interest rate reduction is expected to change market dynamics.
Lusaka continues to expand outwards.

ESG factors are becoming incorporated in property developments, focusing on environmental consciousness.
Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) where Zambia is at its infancy stage.

Slow increase in demand as international travel increased with economic recovery. Hotel occupancy relatively low compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Government actions include visa incentives, tourism promotion to boost occupancy in this sector.
Office market: New space under construction. Prime rentals stable at ~US$15-18/m²/annum. Largely 500-2000 sq m sizes are emerging post-pandemic.
Hotel Market: New developments like the 75-room Urban Hotel (Kabulonga) and Ciela Resort (Bonanza Estate) in Q2. Protea Marriot also now part of Tribute Portfolio in Lusaka. Radisson Livingstone pending.

Market including hybrid leases (combinations of USD/Kwacha, turnover-based, shorter terms).
Occupancy improving across malls, common ground found by retailers and landlords.
Prime rents higher in newer/Lusaka city center locations (US$17-30+/m²), convenience centers (US$10-17/m²), older/rural locations lower (US$8-12/m²).

Sector focus on logistics (requests increase, viewed positively). Interest remains low in manufacturing.
Demand for logistics/storage space driven by growing businesses and economic recovery.

Zambia has extensive land (75 million hectares), with about 58 million hectares classified as medium/high potential for arable/cash crops agriculture.
Investment opportunities exist/are increasing in: Sugar, Wheat, Soya, Avocados, Blueberries, Nuts, Maize, Cattle Ranching, Market Gardening.
More attractive due to improved government policies and climate.

Recent & Upcoming Publications: