2009年-世界发展银行全球_Investment_Commitments_Remain_at_Peak_Level_in_Europe_and_Central_Asia_While_the_Number_of_New_Projects_Declines_9页_803kb

PPI Data Update Note 30: December 2009

Core Content Overview

This document provides an update on private participation in infrastructure (PPI) in Europe and Central Asia for 2008, highlighting investment trends, project closures, and regional activity.

Main Points and Key Information

Investment Commitments and Trends

• Total Investment Commitments: Reached a new peak in 2008 at US$45.9 billion, up 3% from 2007.
• New Projects: The number of new projects declined by 20% compared to 2007, with 36 new projects reaching closure.
• Investment in New Projects: Fell by 1% in 2008, while investment in existing projects increased by 6%.
• Sectoral Distribution:
  • Telecom: Investment totaled US$22.8 billion, with 4% growth.
  • Energy: Investment remained in the US$18–19 billion range, with 50% of the total regional investment in telecom and 40% in energy.
  • Transport: Investment rose by 43% to US$4.6 billion, the second highest level since 1990.
  • Water: No new projects reached closure in 2008.

Investment by Project Type

• Divestitures: Accounted for 49% of the regional total, with US$22.5 billion in investment. This was the second highest level since 1990.
• Greenfield Projects: Contributed 45% of the regional total, with US$20.6 billion in investment, a 27% increase from 2007.
• Payments to Governments: Declined by 21%, to US$11 billion, due to reduced concession and lease fees.

Regional Activity Highlights

• Russia was the largest contributor, accounting for 42% of the regional investment, followed by Turkey (20%) and Poland (11%).
• New Projects:
  • 36 projects reached closure in 2008.
  • 10 in Russia, 7 in Poland, and 6 in Turkey were the largest contributors.
  • 11 new greenfield projects were implemented, with US$2.9 billion in investment.
  • Belarus implemented the only new telecom project in the region: the BeST mobile operator divestiture.

Project Closures and Implementation Status

• Total Closures: 36 projects reached financial or contractual closure in 2008.
• Existing Projects: Accounted for US$25.7 billion in additional investment, contributing significantly to the total.
• Large Projects: Represented a large share of investment, with US$14 billion in large projects (≥1 billion) in 2008.
• Median Project Size: Increased to US$276 million, four times that of 2007.

Key Projects and Sponsors

• Energy Projects:
  • Russia: Divested 9 electricity generation companies totaling 41,734 MW capacity, involving US$11.4 billion in investment.
  • Poland: Implemented 5 wind farms and divested part of ENEA, securing US$738 million.
  • Turkey: Completed 4 greenfield energy projects, including 10 hydro plants and a 920-MW gas-fired plant, involving US$1.9 billion in investment.
• Telecom Projects:
  • Belarus: Sold 80% of BeST, a mobile operator, to Turkcell, involving US$300 million and US$500 million in future network expansion.
• Transport Projects:
  • Turkey led with 2 airport concessions, including Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen International Airport (US$1.3 billion).
  • Poland and Romania divested parts of their airports and ports.
  • Georgia sold its Poti Sea Port to the United Arab Emirates for US$345 million.
  • Armenia signed a 30-year BROT concession for its railway with Russian Railways.

Potential and Canceled Projects

• Potential Projects: At least 41 projects were awarded but not yet closed by the end of 2008.
• Canceled/Distressed Projects: None were reported in 2008, keeping the total number at 21 since 1990.
• Concluded Projects:
  • RAO EES Rossii was dissolved in July 2008 as part of the restructuring of Russia’s power sector.
  • Albania concluded a water utility management contract for four towns.

Summary of Investment Growth and Decline

• The first half of 2008 saw a sharp increase in investment, driven by new energy projects and divestitures, while the second half experienced a 77% drop due to the financial crisis and the end of Russian privatization.
• Preliminary data for Q1 2009 suggests a recovery, with investment in new projects reaching US$10.2 billion.
• Physical asset investment was the main driver of growth, while government payments declined significantly.
• Russia remained the dominant player, with the most new projects and the highest investment share.

Conclusion

The 2008 PPI data for Europe and Central Asia reflects a mixed year, with investment at a new peak but a decline in the number of new projects. The financial crisis and the completion of Russian privatization programs had a significant impact on the latter half of the year. However, greenfield and divestiture projects continued to drive investment, with energy and telecom sectors being the most active.