未来能源研究所-将风险感知与气候模型相结合，以了解太阳辐射修正缓解气候变化的潜在部署（英）-2023.5-19页

Integrating Risk Perception with Climate Models for Solar Radiation Modification (SRM)

Introduction and Context

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drive climate change, with concerns over incremental emission reductions. SRM, such as sulfate aerosol injection, is a climate intervention that could rapidly cool the Earth at low cost but risks causing other climatic impacts. SRM is not yet deployable due to technical and governance challenges, requiring societal decisions based on perceived risks.

Risk Perception and Public Acceptance

Public perception of SRM is largely negative, with low awareness and acceptance rates in industrialized nations. Key factors include views on naturalness, trust in technology and authorities, and moral hazard concerns (e.g., reduced urgency for emission cuts). Support may increase if climate impacts worsen, and framing (e.g., as a "natural" approach) influences acceptance. Perceptions evolve with SRM development and deployment, potentially shifting based on observed effects and media coverage.

Conceptual Model: SRM Phases

A three-phase model describes SRM operationalization:

• Predevelopment: SRM is an abstract idea driven by climate risk urgency, but blocked by perceived SRM risks like moral hazard and low trust.
• Predployment: Focuses on development and deployment decisions, mediated by abatement progress and risk perceptions.
• Postdeployment: SRM is active, with climate impacts and attributions influencing continued use and trust, varying by region.

Transitions between phases depend on balancing perceived risks from climate change and SRM. Media and societal trust amplify these perceptions, while regional differences and evolving impacts affect support.

Key Model Insights

• Growing climate impacts may accelerate SRM development if abatement is insufficient.
• Trust in SRM technology decreases risk perceptions but varies by region (e.g., higher support in the Global South).
• Post-deployment attribution of impacts to SRM or GHGs drives continuation or cessation.
• Current lack of SRM deployment stems from high perceived risks and low trust, tied to interference with nature and moral concerns.

The model highlights the integration of psychological, social, and behavioral factors in SRM governance and climate policy.