2026-02-05-莱坊-Shenzhen_office_market_report_Q4_2025_7页_1mb

报告摘要

Shenzhen Grade-A Office Market Report Summary (Q4 2025)

Core Content

The Shenzhen Grade-A office market in Q4 2025 showed signs of stabilization, with a mix of recovery and continued rental pressure. The market maintained a "recovering absorption amid sustained rental pressure" pattern, driven by concentrated lease signings at the end of the quarter. The citywide vacancy rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 24.6%, while the average net effective rent fell to RMB 145.6 per sqm per month, a 1.9% QoQ decline. Although the rate of rent decline slowed slightly, there are no clear indicators of rent stabilization.

Main Points

Market Stability and Recovery: The market showed signs of stabilization, but the recovery was more cyclical than structural.
Demand Composition: The majority of demand came from the TMT (47.9%) and financial services (25.9%) sectors, with trade and retail accounting for 12.5%. Relocations dominated transaction types (54.2%), indicating corporates' preference for cost control through space optimization and consolidation.
Rental Trends: Rents remained under downward pressure, with Qianhai and Bao'an CBD experiencing the largest declines. Landlords shifted to targeted absorption-driven incentives, such as flexible rent-free periods and customized lease terms.
Supply and Demand Imbalance: The market continued to face a supply-demand imbalance, with new supply for 2025 totaling approximately 429,000 sqm and net absorption reaching 314,000 sqm. The temporary pause in new supply contributed to the improved absorption in Q4.
Investment Market: The investment market remained cautious, with owner-occupiers as the main participants. Total en-bloc transaction volume reached RMB 8.67 billion for the year, reflecting a measured recovery from low valuations.

Key Information

Net Absorption: 163,123 sqm in Q4 2025, the highest quarterly level of the year.
Vacancy Rate: Declined to 24.6%, a 1.5 percentage point drop from the previous quarter.
Average Net Effective Rent: RMB 145.6 per sqm per month, down 1.9% QoQ.
New Supply: Expected to exceed 1.04 million sqm in 2026, primarily in Qianhai and Shenzhen Headquarter Base.
Investment Activity: Only one en-bloc transaction occurred in Q4 2025, with Fortior Tech acquiring Runrong Building for RMB 710 million.
Market Outlook: The market is expected to face short-term rental pressure in 1H 2026 due to concentrated supply deliveries. 2H performance will depend on macroeconomic trends, corporate confidence, and capital flows.

Submarket Analysis

Submarket	Rent (RMB/sqm/month)	Rental % Change (QoQ)	Vacancy Rate	Vacancy Rate % Change (QoQ)
Luohu	122.0	↓0.7%	29.3%	↑0.9%
Futian CBD	172.1	↓2.0%	17.7%	↓0.8%
Futian-Chegongmiao	140.0	↓1.2%	24.8%	↑0.3%
Nanshan-High-tech Park	129.7	↓2.0%	14.8%	↓1.1%
Nanshan-Houhai	173.3	↓0.3%	33.2%	↓3.0%
Nanshan-Shekou	151.8	↓2.8%	27.2%	↓7.6%
Nanshan-Qianhai	126.7	↓3.4%	32.9%	↓3.6%
Bao'an CBD	119.5	↓3.2%	27.6%	↑0.7%

Market Outlook

2026 Forecast: New supply is expected to exceed 1.04 million sqm, leading to increased vacancy and continued rental concessions in the first half of the year.
Second Half Performance: Will depend on macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and capital flows. If corporate confidence recovers, leasing demand may improve.
Segment Divergence: Rental volatility is expected to moderate, but adjustment pace will vary across segments. Emerging areas with favorable industry and policy support are likely to remain active, while traditional districts focus on rent stabilization.

Investment Market Trends

Owner-Occupiers Dominance: Owner-occupiers were the primary force in the investment market, with corporates favoring asset ownership to control costs and optimize balance sheets.
Limited Investment Deals: Investment-led deals remained limited, with a focus on price discounts and lease certainty.
Market Valuation: Market valuations continued to adjust downward, with a gradual shift in capital allocation towards defensive strategies.

Contact Information

Regina Yang
Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Shanghai & Beijing
+86 139 1872 3123
regina.yang@cn.knightfrank.com
Martin Wong
Senior Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Greater China
+852 2846 7184
martin.wong@hk.knightfrank.com
Ken Kan
Managing Director, Shenzhen
Head of Office Strategy & Solutions, South China
+86 186 6682 5418
ken.kan@cn.knightfrank.com
Henry Chen
Analyst, Research & Consultancy, Shenzhen
+86 136 4231 4481
henry.chen@cn.knightfrank.com