20210531-世界银行-Design_for_impact_A_State_Aid_Evaluation_for_Romania_137页_3mb

The report evaluates the impact of three state aid schemes in Romania: the Romanian Counter-Guarantee Fund scheme (de minimis aid for MSMEs), the Ministry of Public Finance scheme (regional development), and the Ministry of European Funds scheme (R&D support). It used ex-post evaluation methods, including difference-in-differences and propensity-score matching, with micro-level data from administrative sources and surveys. Key findings include:

1. Counter-Guarantee Fund: Increased employment and turnover for beneficiaries but reduced productivity. It had negative spillover effects on nonbeneficiaries, leading to worker displacement in high-demand regions. Competition distortions were minimal due to small aid amounts.
2. Ministry of Public Finance: Boosted employment and investment in beneficiary firms, aiding regional development. Positive spillovers created jobs for nonbeneficiaries.
3. Ministry of European Funds: Promoted R&D, increasing beneficiary firms' R&D spending. Minimal competition or productivity spillovers.
   Lessons emphasize the need for robust data, sector-specific design adjustments, and monitoring to optimize aid effectiveness without distorting markets. The evaluation underscores data quality's role in assessing spillover effects and guiding future policy.