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报告摘要

CEEMEA Weekly Summary - 26 March 2014

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the economic developments in the CEEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East and Eastern Europe) region, focusing on Russia and Hungary, as well as a brief mention of Turkey and South Africa. It highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, monetary policy changes, and macroeconomic indicators on the region's economic performance.

Main Themes and Key Points

Russia: Stagflation is the new growth

GDP Growth: Russian GDP growth is expected to be much weaker in 2014 at 0.4% and slightly stronger in 2015 at 2.1%, down from previous estimates of 1.9% and 2.3% respectively.
Inflation: Inflation is forecasted to rise to 6.8% in 2014 and 5.0% in 2015, up from 5.7% and 5.3% previously.
Reasons for the Forecast Change: The Crimean crisis has increased risk aversion, leading to capital outflows, a weaker rouble, and reduced investment. These factors have contributed to stagflation-like conditions.
Current Account: A better-than-expected current account surplus of 1.9% of GDP is anticipated in 2014, driven by lower import bills.
Long-term Outlook: Russia's potential growth may slow further due to continued reliance on oil exports and possible future sanctions.

Russia: Exogenous Shock Tactics

SVAR Models: Structural VAR models were used to assess the impact of exogenous shocks, particularly oil price and FX shocks.
Oil Price Impact:
- A 10% rise in oil prices increases GDP growth by 0.5pp after 12 months.
- Oil price shocks have a limited effect on CPI inflation, but a 5% RUB depreciation raises CPI inflation by 0.6pp after 6-8 months and reduces GDP growth by 0.2-0.3pp after 9-12 months.
Interest Rates: The recent 150bp rate hike is unlikely to significantly curb inflation, but it will dampen GDP growth.

Hungary: Beginning of the End of the Easing Cycle

Interest Rate Cut: The NBH cut rates by 10bp, bringing the main policy rate to 2.60%.
Easing Cycle: The easing cycle is nearing its end, with a final 10bp cut in April, followed by a hold on rates for the rest of the year.
Inflation Outlook: Inflation is expected to rise to 3.0% in 2015, triggering a tightening cycle of 150bp.
GDP Growth: The NBH still expects 2.1% GDP growth in 2014, despite a slowdown in credit growth.

South Africa: Taking a Hike?

Counter-consensus View: The SARB is expected to raise interest rates by 25bp to 5.75%, against the consensus, due to persistent inflation concerns.
PPI Inflation: The market will closely watch PPI inflation for February, which is expected to rise to 7.2% y/y, driven by higher fuel and food prices.
Inflation Expectations: High inflation expectations and a weaker ZAR are likely to feed through into consumer price dynamics.

Turkey: Local Elections and Political Risks

Local Elections: The main focus is on the local elections on 30 March, which are seen as a test of government support amid corruption allegations.
Rating Risks: Moody's warned that escalating political tensions could negatively impact Turkey's sovereign rating, though it also highlighted the country's fiscal strength.
Bond Issuance: Turkey is expected to issue TRY 11.3bn of debt through five auctions in the coming week.

Economic Forecasts Summary

Variable	2014 Forecast	2015 Forecast	Previous Forecast
GDP (% y/y)	0.4	2.1	1.9
Private Consumption	1.5	3.6	3.8
Fixed Investment	-2.2	4.1	3.1
Exports (% y/y)	2.0	1.4	1.7
Imports (% y/y)	-5.6	10.4	1.6
CPI (% y/y, average)	6.8	5.0	5.7
CPI (% y/y, end)	7.0	3.7	5.3
Current Account (% GDP)	1.9	-1.3	1.0
FDI (% GDP)	-0.8	-0.7	-0.1
General Gov. Budget (% GDP)	-3.3	-3.2	-1.9
Primary Gov. Budget (% GDP)	-2.8	-2.6	-2.5
Gross Gov. Debt (% GDP)	13.9	17.2	12.8
Official Interest Rate (% y/y, end)	7.00	5.50	5.50

Key Insights and Trends

Russia: Stagflation is expected to dominate 2014, with weak GDP growth and high inflation. The economy is vulnerable to external shocks, and the RUB's depreciation is likely to increase imported inflation.
Hungary: The easing cycle is approaching an end, with one more rate cut expected in April. Inflation is forecasted to rise in 2015, prompting a tightening cycle.
South Africa: The SARB is expected to hike rates, driven by inflation concerns, despite a counter-consensus stance.
Turkey: Political tensions and upcoming elections are key risks, with Moody's warning of potential rating downgrades if tensions escalate. The country is also set to issue significant debt.

Summary of Market and Policy Watch

Central Bank Watch: The SARB, NBH, and CBR are key central banks to monitor in the coming weeks.
Data Preview: The March PMI data in Central Europe and the February PPI figures in South Africa are important indicators to watch.
Contacts: The report includes a list of contacts for further information.
Disclaimer: The document includes a disclaimer regarding the forecasts and their assumptions.

Conclusion

The CEEMEA region faces a mix of economic and political challenges in early 2014. Russia is expected to experience stagflation, with weak GDP growth and rising inflation due to geopolitical tensions and capital outflows. Hungary is moving toward the end of its easing cycle, while South Africa is expected to raise interest rates. Turkey remains a key focus due to its political climate and sovereign rating risks. The overall outlook for the region is cautious, with limited policy effectiveness in countering inflation and fragile growth prospects.

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