2011年-世界发展银行全球_Managing_Peaceful_Transitions___Evidence_and_Experience_4页_816kb

MENA Knowledge and Learning: Managing Peaceful Transitions

Core Content

This Quick Note from the World Bank explores the challenges and opportunities of managing peaceful political transitions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, drawing on lessons from both the 2011 World Development Report (WDR) on "Conflict, Security, and Development" and a complementary regional Bank study. It emphasizes the importance of combining evidence-based research with real-world experiences from other regions to inform policy choices in MENA.

Main Views

1. Political Transitions and Conflict Risk

• Political transitions, whether through elections or peace agreements, often lead to increased risk of conflict and violence.
• Unaddressed grievances can escalate into demands for change and increase the likelihood of violent conflict.
• Repeated cycles of violence are common, and breaking these cycles requires sustained efforts over time, not just one decisive moment.

2. Confidence Building

• Confidence building is essential during transitions and involves:
  • Forming inclusive coalitions through collaboration between the government and various societal sectors.
  • Addressing local community priorities to deliver early results and maintain public support.
• Examples include:
  • South Africa: Inclusive strategies helped shift from group rights to individual rights and ensured stability.
  • Indonesia: Decentralization and community-driven development yielded quick results.
  • Georgia: Removing corrupt practices and introducing transparent systems helped restore confidence.

3. Institutional Transformation

• Creating legitimate institutions that provide security, justice, and jobs is a slow and long-term process.
• It typically takes 15–30 years for institutional performance to improve significantly.
• Key steps include:
  • Reforms in bureaucratic quality, corruption, military involvement, government effectiveness, and rule of law.
  • Chile and Indonesia show that early reforms are important, but sustained efforts over time are necessary for full transformation.

4. Multi-Sectoral Approaches

• Institutional transformation must be supported by job creation, capacity building, and strengthening local governance.
• Indonesia's Kecamatan Development Program (KDP) exemplifies how local participation and transparency can help in post-conflict settings.
• A balanced approach between macroeconomic stability and social investment is crucial for long-term legitimacy.

Key Information

• Figure 1 illustrates the spiral process of moving from fragility and violence to institutional resilience.
• Table 1 provides estimates of the time required for different indicators to reach a threshold of institutional transformation.
• The WDR 2011 highlights the importance of continuous risk assessment and confidence-building measures.
• The Bank's role includes supporting budget and expenditure processes, technical capacity-building, and multi-sectoral violence prevention.
• Humanitarian aid can be integrated into national programs, but must be done in a way that preserves humanitarian principles.

Selected Recommendations

• Broaden the traditional development paradigm to include security, justice, and jobs.
• Move from early warning to continuous risk assessment.
• Support joint teams for budget and technical assistance in citizen security and justice.
• Promote multi-sectoral programs that involve community policing, local dispute resolution, and social investment.
• Integrate humanitarian aid into national programs in a way that maintains its integrity and effectiveness.

Conclusion

Political transitions in the MENA region are complex and varied, with outcomes that are hard to predict. The success of transitions in other regions offers valuable lessons, but these must be adapted to the specific political and social context of each country. The emphasis is on case-by-case analysis, local demands, and international capabilities to ensure sustainable and peaceful transformation.

Contact Information

• Laura Tuck, Director, Strategy and Operations, MENA Region, The World Bank Regional Quick Notes Team
• Omer Karasapan, Roby Fields, Hafed Al-Ghwell
• Tel: (202) 473 8177

This Quick Note summarizes lessons learned from MNA and other Bank Knowledge and Learning activities and does not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board, or its member countries.