Agtech Public: Comp Sheet and Valuation Guide Summary
Core Content Overview
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the public agtech sector as of September 30, 2023, including stock returns, valuation metrics, and revenue forecasts. It is compiled using data from PitchBook and Morningstar, offering insights into the performance and market dynamics of various agtech sub-sectors.
Key Takeaways
-
Agtech Share Prices Underperform: Agtech stocks have largely declined by mid-single digits. Indoor farming solutions have shown the best performance, with an average gain of 14%, while Plant biotech-fast growth stocks have declined significantly by 19%. SalMar stands out in the animal agriculture segment with a 26% quarterly increase in stock price due to strong operational performance.
-
Multiples Recede: Median EV/NTM sales multiples have declined across segments in Q3. Animal agriculture multiples dropped from 1.7x in Q2 to 1.4x in Q3, while indoor farming solutions slightly increased to 0.7x. The overall trend indicates investor caution and a focus on profitability, as multiples remain below 2022 levels.
-
EBITDA Forecasts Mostly Negative: 2023 EBITDA growth estimates are expected to be negative for all segments except indoor farming, indoor farming, and precision agriculture, which are projected to see medium growth. Indoor farming margins are predicted to be -41% in 2023 but are expected to turn positive by 2025.
-
M&A Activity is Small but Mighty: In Q3, there were 15 agtech M&A transactions, a significant drop from 68 in Q4 2021. Notable deals include Clearpath Robotics being acquired by Rockwell Automation and Mighty Vine being acquired by Pure Flavour, just under a year after its previous acquisition. The decline in M&A is attributed to high interest rates and market instability.
Stock Returns
Precision Agriculture
| Company |
1 Week |
30 Days |
90 Days |
Peak |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Years |
5 Years |
| AGCO |
2% |
-8% |
-10% |
1% |
2% |
22% |
62% |
95% |
| Caterpillar |
0% |
-3% |
11% |
32% |
32% |
65% |
85% |
79% |
| CNH Industrial |
-2% |
-12% |
-16% |
-28% |
-28% |
8% |
79% |
16% |
| Deere |
-1% |
-9% |
-7% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
70% |
151% |
| Ekobot |
-6% |
-16% |
-4% |
-87% |
-88% |
-45% |
N/A |
N/A |
| Jain Irrigation |
1% |
-3% |
60% |
30% |
36% |
68% |
290% |
-9% |
| Kubota |
-6% |
-6% |
2% |
-34% |
-34% |
4% |
-18% |
-13% |
| Lindsay |
3% |
-6% |
-1% |
-23% |
-23% |
-18% |
22% |
17% |
| Valmont Industries |
1% |
-6% |
-17% |
-4% |
-4% |
-11% |
96% |
73% |
| Mean |
-8% |
2% |
-12% |
-11% |
11% |
86% |
51% |
- |
| Median |
0% |
-4% |
-4% |
-4% |
8% |
75% |
45% |
- |
Animal Agriculture
| Company |
1 Week |
30 Days |
90 Days |
Peak |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Years |
5 Years |
| Aker BioMarine |
0% |
-16% |
16% |
-40% |
-41% |
-13% |
-62% |
N/A |
| Atlantic Sapphire |
-8% |
-33% |
-76% |
-97% |
-97% |
-85% |
-99% |
-98% |
| BayWa |
-5% |
-1% |
-9% |
-8% |
-8% |
-2% |
38% |
42% |
| Flying Spark |
-10% |
-35% |
-43% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| Mowi |
-1% |
-2% |
12% |
-26% |
-26% |
42% |
5% |
-24% |
| New Hope Liuhe |
-3% |
-7% |
-7% |
-37% |
-37% |
-22% |
-63% |
69% |
| SalMar |
-1% |
4% |
26% |
-27% |
-27% |
44% |
-5% |
2% |
| Salmon Evolution |
-2% |
0% |
-2% |
-41% |
-41% |
-22% |
-11% |
N/A |
| Mean |
-4% |
-11% |
-10% |
-40% |
-39% |
-8% |
-28% |
- |
| Median |
-2% |
-4% |
-4% |
-37% |
-37% |
-13% |
-11% |
- |
Animal Biotech
| Company |
1 Week |
30 Days |
90 Days |
Peak |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Years |
5 Years |
| Adisseo |
-2% |
2% |
3% |
-42% |
-42% |
-17% |
-40% |
-42% |
| Avivagen |
0% |
1% |
-34% |
-97% |
-97% |
-93% |
-98% |
-98% |
| Benchmark Holdings |
-2% |
-3% |
-10% |
-41% |
-41% |
10% |
-19% |
-43% |
| Elanco Animal Health |
0% |
-9% |
12% |
-60% |
-60% |
-11% |
-58% |
-68% |
| Godrej Agrovet |
0% |
-1% |
4% |
-18% |
-17% |
-8% |
-16% |
-18% |
| Phibro Animal Health |
-3% |
-14% |
-7% |
-39% |
-37% |
-3% |
-28% |
-70% |
| Zoetis |
-2% |
-10% |
1% |
-26% |
-29% |
15% |
8% |
90% |
| Zomedica Pharmaceutical |
0% |
-9% |
-16% |
-53% |
-45% |
-21% |
63% |
-91% |
| Mean |
-1% |
-5% |
-6% |
-47% |
-46% |
-16% |
-24% |
- |
| Median |
-1% |
-6% |
-3% |
-41% |
-41% |
-9% |
-24% |
- |
Indoor Farming
| Company |
1 Week |
30 Days |
90 Days |
Peak |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Years |
5 Years |
| Editie Garden |
-3% |
-46% |
-41% |
N/A |
N/A |
-96% |
N/A |
N/A |
| Local Bounti |
2% |
-19% |
-10% |
-97% |
-97% |
-93% |
N/A |
N/A |
| Village Farms |
-11% |
-8% |
33% |
-88% |
-88% |
-58% |
-83% |
-85% |
| Mean |
-4% |
-24% |
-6% |
-93% |
-92% |
-83% |
-83% |
-85% |
| Median |
-3% |
-19% |
-10% |
-93% |
-92% |
-93% |
-83% |
-85% |
Indoor Farming Solutions
| Company |
1 Week |
30 Days |
90 Days |
Peak |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Years |
5 Years |
| AgriFORCE |
-15% |
7% |
-51% |
-95% |
-95% |
-92% |
N/A |
N/A |
| Agrify |
-10% |
-17% |
-42% |
-100% |
-100% |
-97% |
N/A |
N/A |
| CubicFarm Systems |
17% |
1% |
-14% |
-97% |
-97% |
-74% |
-96% |
N/A |
| Grow Generation |
-3% |
-3% |
-14% |
-79% |
-78% |
-19% |
-80% |
-32% |
| Hydrofarm |
0% |
17% |
56% |
-96% |
-96% |
-39% |
N/A |
N/A |
| Light Science |
-18% |
22% |
145% |
-87% |
-87% |
-59% |
N/A |
N/A |
| Urban-gro |
5% |
33% |
15% |
-87% |
-87% |
-51% |
-63% |
N/A |
| Mean |
-4% |
9% |
14% |
-91% |
-91% |
-62% |
-80% |
-32% |
| Median |
-3% |
7% |
-14% |
-95% |
-95% |
-59% |
-80% |
-32% |
Plant Biotech-Fast Growth
| Company |
1 Week |
30 Days |
90 Days |
Peak |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Years |
5 Years |
| Benson Hill |
-7% |
-52% |
-75% |
-96% |
-95% |
-87% |
N/A |
N/A |
| Bioceres Crop Solutions |
1% |
-3% |
-15% |
-21% |
-20% |
-10% |
111% |
16% |
| Biotalys |
-1% |
-17% |
-22% |
-40% |
-38% |
-4% |
N/A |
N/A |
| KWS Saat |
2% |
-4% |
-4% |
-31% |
-29% |
8% |
-30% |
-24% |
| MustGrow Biologics |
1% |
-7% |
-22% |
-62% |
-62% |
-39% |
302% |
N/A |
| PlantArcBio |
4% |
11% |
-2% |
-52% |
-45% |
-33% |
N/A |
N/A |
| Shandong Denghai Seeds |
0% |
-8% |
-8% |
-52% |
-52% |
-27% |
-22% |
91% |
| SLC Agricola |
-2% |
-8% |
-1% |
19% |
20% |
7% |
111% |
25% |
| Verde Agritech |
-42% |
-57% |
-49% |
-54% |
-54% |
-70% |
120% |
104% |
| Winall Hi-tech Seed |
-5% |
-10% |
-9% |
-43% |
-43% |
-3% |
1% |
83% |
| Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture |
2% |
-3% |
-3% |
-44% |
-44% |
7% |
-25% |
-10% |
| Mean |
-4% |
-14% |
-19% |
-43% |
-42% |
-23% |
71% |
41% |
| Median |
0% |
-8% |
-9% |
-44% |
-44% |
-10% |
56% |
25% |
Plant Biotech-Medium Growth and Incumbent
| Company |
1 Week |
30 Days |
90 Days |
Peak |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Years |
5 Years |
| Adama Agricultural Solutions |
-3% |
-1% |
-8% |
-20% |
-20% |
-18% |
-14% |
-42% |
| American Vanguard |
-6% |
-21% |
-39% |
-33% |
-33% |
-41% |
-18% |
-39% |
| BASF |
-1% |
-10% |
-6% |
-36% |
-35% |
20% |
-25% |
-49% |
| Bayer |
-5% |
-12% |
-13% |
-11% |
-10% |
4% |
-24% |
-46% |
| Coromandel International |
4% |
4% |
19% |
36% |
36% |
14% |
27% |
149% |
| Corteva Agriscience |
-1% |
0% |
-11% |
9% |
8% |
-11% |
77% |
N/A |
| Dow Chemical |
3% |
-6% |
-3% |
-9% |
-9% |
17% |
9% |
N/A |
| DuPont |
2% |
-3% |
4% |
-8% |
-8% |
47% |
32% |
-18% |
| FMC |
-2% |
-24% |
-36% |
-39% |
-39% |
-37% |
-37% |
-11% |
| Israel Chemicals |
-4% |
-8% |
0% |
-44% |
-43% |
-33% |
56% |
-11% |
| Nufarm |
0% |
-9% |
-9% |
-13% |
-13% |
-8% |
8% |
-36% |
| Nutrien |
0% |
-2% |
5% |
-17% |
-17% |
-26% |
56% |
9% |
| PI Industries |
1% |
-8% |
-13% |
1% |
2% |
13% |
57% |
326% |
| The Mosaic |
-1% |
-8% |
2% |
-11% |
-9% |
-26% |
93% |
10% |
| UPL |
0% |
2% |
-12% |
-28% |
-26% |
-8% |
7% |
22% |
| Yara International |
0% |
3% |
8% |
-29% |
-25% |
7% |
1% |
-23% |
| Mean |
-7% |
-7% |
-16% |
-15% |
-5% |
19% |
17% |
- |
| Median |
-7% |
-7% |
-15% |
-15% |
-8% |
8% |
-15% |
- |
Indexes
| Index |
1 Week |
30 Days |
90 Days |
Peak |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Years |
5 Years |
| S&P 500 |
-1% |
-5% |
-4% |
-11% |
-10% |
18% |
28% |
47% |
| NASDAQ |
0% |
-6% |
-4% |
-17% |
-16% |
23% |
19% |
64% |
| Russell 2000 |
0% |
-6% |
-5% |
-21% |
-20% |
7% |
18% |
5% |
| S&P Info. Technology |
0% |
-7% |
-6% |
-6% |
-5% |
37% |
42% |
120% |
| Mean |
0% |
-6% |
-5% |
-14% |
-13% |
21% |
27% |
59% |
| Median |
0% |
-6% |
-5% |
-14% |
-13% |
20% |
23% |
56% |
Valuations
- Enterprise Value over Next 12 Months Forecast Revenue: Declined across most segments, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
- Stock Price over Next 12 Months Forecast Earnings Per Share (EPS): Indicates a focus on earnings rather than growth, with EPS forecasts generally lower than stock price growth.
- Enterprise Value over Next 12 Months Forecast EBITDA: Negative EBITDA forecasts are common, except for certain segments showing medium growth, with a projected positive outlook by 2025.
Revenue Overview
- Precision Agriculture: Companies show varying revenue growth, with some experiencing positive trends and others facing declines.
- Animal Agriculture: Revenue growth has been mixed, with some companies showing positive YoY growth and others experiencing significant declines.
- Animal Biotech: Revenue forecasts are generally stable, with some companies showing growth and others experiencing declines.
- Indoor Farming: Revenue growth is uneven, with some companies showing positive trends and others facing declines.
- Indoor Farming Solutions: Revenue forecasts are generally positive, though some companies show negative trends.
- Plant Biotech-Fast Growth: Revenue growth is mixed, with some companies showing strong growth and others declining.
- Plant Biotech-Medium Growth and Incumbent: Revenue growth is relatively stable, with some companies showing positive trends and others facing declines.
Conclusion
The agtech public sector has shown mixed performance, with a general trend of underperformance in stock prices and declining multiples. While some segments like indoor farming solutions and certain incumbents show positive revenue growth, others, such as plant biotech-fast growth, face significant challenges. M&A activity has decreased, likely due to high interest rates and market instability, and EBITDA forecasts remain largely negative, indicating ongoing financial pressures across the industry. Investors are focusing on profitability and stability, leading to lower valuations.
