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Summary of Legal Dimensions of Sea Level Rise: Pacific Perspectives

Core Content

This document explores the legal implications of sea level rise on Small Island Developing States (SIDS), with a particular focus on Pacific atoll countries. It is part of the World Bank's initiative to enhance the resilience of these nations against the long-term impacts of climate change. The study examines how rising sea levels affect maritime rights, statehood, human mobility, and the broader legal and policy frameworks that govern these issues.

Main Legal Frameworks

The legal study is grounded in several key international agreements and conventions:

• 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (LOSC): This convention defines the rights and responsibilities of coastal and island states regarding maritime boundaries, baselines, and entitlements.
• 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): Provides the foundational legal framework for international climate action.
• 2015 Paris Agreement: Aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, and has significant implications for the legal rights of coastal states.

Key Legal and Policy Questions

The document addresses the following critical legal and policy questions:

1. Impact of Baseline Changes on Maritime Rights: Sea level rise can cause retreating coastlines and the inundation of small offshore features, which are used to measure maritime entitlements. This may challenge the ability of coastal states to retain their rights under the LOSC.
2. Definition of "Island" vs. "Rock": The distinction between "island" and "rock" under the LOSC is crucial for determining maritime entitlements. Sea level rise may lead to reclassification of islands, which could affect their legal status and rights.
3. Changes in Maritime Boundaries: Alterations in coastal baselines can affect the delimitation of maritime boundaries, potentially extending them beyond 200 nautical miles, and impact the rights of third states.
4. Defending Maritime Entitlements: Coastal states can use physical means such as artificial islands to defend their maritime rights, and may also argue against the need to amend existing entitlements.
5. Uninhabitable Island States: The legal status of states that become uninhabitable due to sea level rise is an unprecedented challenge. International law suggests a presumption of state continuity if the state can still fulfill its obligations.
6. Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change: International law provides a framework for addressing human mobility, but it is fragmented. Legal and policy tools are necessary to facilitate both in-situ adaptation and relocation.
7. International Support for Adaptation: Various financial and technical mechanisms exist to support states in adapting to sea level rise, including legal and policy strategies.

Key Findings from the IPCC Reports

The study draws on the latest scientific assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

• Sea Level Rise Predictions: The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) indicates that even with significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, sea levels will continue to rise over the coming decades and centuries. The Pacific region is expected to experience some of the highest rates of sea level rise.
• Ocean Warming and Acidification: These phenomena are affecting marine ecosystems, leading to increased coral bleaching, reduced fish stocks, and changes in the distribution of marine species.
• Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems: Rising sea levels, along with increased storm intensity and frequency, are likely to increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding, erosion, and salinization. The 2019 Special Report on the Ocean and the Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) emphasizes that these risks will significantly increase throughout the century.
• Fisheries and Food Security: The decline in fish stocks due to climate change could have severe impacts on food security and traditional diets in the Pacific. Tuna and tuna-like species are expected to become increasingly important for domestic consumption.

Conclusion

The legal study underscores the need for a comprehensive and forward-looking approach to address the unprecedented challenges posed by sea level rise. It highlights the importance of legal frameworks, policy options, and international cooperation in supporting SIDS and Pacific atoll countries in their adaptation efforts. The document serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, legal practitioners, and stakeholders seeking to understand and respond to the legal dimensions of climate change and sea level rise in the Pacific region.

Appendices

• Appendix I: Outlines legal and policy options for human mobility in the context of climate change.
• Appendix II: Lists available funds and financing options for SIDS to adapt to climate change impacts.
• Appendix III: Summarizes the World Bank's work in the Pacific region related to climate resilience.

Figures

• Figure 1: Map of the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of Pacific Island Countries (PICTs) and international waters.
• Figure 2: Historical and projected distributions of tuna species in the tropical Pacific.
• Figure 3: Projected changes in license revenue from the purse-seine fishery.
• Figure 4–16: Illustrate various legal and physical aspects of baselines, maritime zones, and the implications of sea level rise on these areas.

Boxes

• Box 1: Discusses the impact of migration on Marshallese migrants and the Compact of Free Association (COFA).
• Box 2: Details Fiji's 2018 Planned Relocation Guidelines.
• Box 3: Summarizes the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of atoll countries with ocean-related commitments.

This document provides a detailed legal analysis of the challenges and implications of sea level rise for the Pacific region, emphasizing the need for adaptive legal and policy strategies.