2017年-世界发展银行全球_Yemen_Policy_Note_1___A_Summary_51页_1mb

Yemen Policy Note Summary

Core Content

The World Bank's Yemen Policy Note 1 outlines the key challenges and recommendations for post-conflict recovery and development in Yemen, focusing on the first two years after the conflict. It highlights the deepening conflict, the fragility of the state, and the need for a strategic and inclusive approach to recovery, emphasizing the role of the private sector, institutional reform, and service delivery.

Main Points and Recommendations

1. Context of Conflict and Fragility

• Yemen has experienced cycles of violence since becoming a Republic in 1962, with the current conflict escalating in 2015.
• The conflict has deepened societal fragility and fault lines, rooted in long-standing grievances, corruption, elite capture, exclusion, and regional/tribal divisions.
• The financial sector has failed to perform its economic function, and the GDP has declined by 40% since 2014.
• The institutional capacity has weakened, with many public institutions unable to operate effectively due to conflict, unpaid salaries, and lack of resources.

2. Economic Stabilization and Peace Incentives

• Restoring fiscal capacity and economic stocks is essential for stabilizing the economy and promoting peace.
• The economy must be balanced, with attention to both external and domestic economic aggregates.
• A minimum stock of foreign reserves (estimated at $4.5 billion, or 3 months of imports) is needed to support recovery and private sector activity.
• Restoring the Central Bank of Yemen is critical for its role as a lender of last resort, balancing debt markets, facilitating trade, and ensuring financial system viability.

3. Private Sector Engagement

• The private sector should be the main driver of recovery and economic growth.
• The state should act as a facilitator rather than a direct provider of services, focusing on enabling private sector activity and improving the business environment.
• Private sector capacity must be leveraged to support job creation and economic development, especially in the post-conflict phase.

4. Service Delivery and Institutional Reforms

• Restoring and improving public services is a priority, with a focus on health, education, and infrastructure.
• Service delivery should be supported by local solutions and community-based organizations (CSOs), as well as the private sector.
• The state should work to reestablish trust through inclusive and transparent service delivery mechanisms, with a focus on accountability and participation.
• Rebuilding the Public Financial Management (PFM) system is essential for restoring credibility and enabling effective service delivery.

5. Social Contract and Inclusiveness

• Yemen's old social contract has failed, and a new one must be established to address the country's needs.
• Voice and accountability should be prioritized from the start of the recovery process.
• The National Dialogue Conference (NDC) provided a framework for rebalancing the social contract and addressing the root causes of conflict.
• A more inclusive sharing of resources, especially from the hydrocarbon sector, is necessary for long-term peace and development.

6. Hydrocarbon Sector Revival

• The hydrocarbon sector remains the financial backbone of Yemen, generating 60% of fiscal resources and 85% of export receipts.
• Reviving oil and gas production is critical for economic, political, and social recovery.
• The sector's value has been affected by the decline in international oil prices since 2014.
• Reforms in the governance of the hydrocarbon sector are necessary to improve transparency and accountability, and to enable broader private sector participation.

7. Role of External Support

• External assistance must be effective immediately to support peace and recovery.
• It should be used to strengthen national systems, particularly the PFM system, and to improve service delivery and institutional capacity.
• Coordination with Yemen's partners is crucial, and external support should include both financial and regulatory components.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Matrix for Recovery and Change in Yemen – Highlights the key areas of focus for recovery and change.
• Figure 2: Reimaging Institutional Relations in Service Delivery – Illustrates the need for a more inclusive and transparent service delivery model.

Conclusion

The policy notes emphasize that the recovery of Yemen must be a strategic, inclusive, and sustainable process. Short-term actions must lay the groundwork for long-term development and peace, with a focus on rebuilding institutions, restoring public services, and leveraging private sector capacity. The role of the state is to facilitate and enable, rather than dominate, the recovery process. The success of the recovery will depend on the ability to build trust, ensure accountability, and create a more inclusive and resilient social contract.