2017年-世界发展银行全球_Can_Public_Works_Programs_Reduce_Youth_Crime____Evidence_from_Papua_New_Guineas_Urban_Youth_Employment_Project_38页_912kb

Can Public Works Programs Reduce Youth Crime? Evidence from Papua New Guinea's Urban Youth Employment Project

Core Content

This working paper evaluates the impact of the Urban Youth Employment Project (UYEP) in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea (PNG), on youth crime and anti-social behavior. The project, implemented in 2013 by the National Capital District Commission (NCDC) in partnership with the World Bank, offers two types of interventions: public works employment and job training. The study uses a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach to estimate the program's effects on participants' social behavior and criminal activity, 12 to 18 months after completion.

Main Components of the UYEP

The UYEP consists of two main components:

1. Youth Job Corps (YJC): Targets less educated youth, providing 40 days (approximately two months) of public works employment, such as road maintenance and cleaning.
2. Skills Development and Employment Scheme (SDES): Targets more educated youth, offering one month of Pre-Employment Training (PET) followed by five months of on-the-job training (OJT) with employers.

All participants undergo a Basic Life Skills Training (BLST) at the start of the program, which focuses on improving soft skills.

Key Findings

• Social Behavior: The program significantly reduced risky social behaviors among participants:
  • Participants were 9 percentage points less likely to hang out with friends late at night.
  • They were 12 percentage points less likely to have a best friend involved in crime.
  • They were 16 percentage points less likely to have friends involved in fights or robberies.
• Aggressive Behavior: Participants showed a notable reduction in aggressive behavior:
  • 13 percentage points less likely to threaten to use force.
  • 11 percentage points less likely to fight back in response to an attack.
• Criminal Activity: The program had limited impact on direct criminal activity:
  • A 6 percentage point drop in vandalism for fun was observed among participants.
  • No significant reduction was found in other types of crime such as assault, robbery, or trespassing.
• Economic Outcomes: The program increased employment rates among participants.

Methodology and Sample

• The control group consisted of youth from neighboring districts not served by the UYEP.
• Baseline surveys (ESS and EBS) were conducted on both treatment and control groups to ensure comparability.
• A follow-up survey (FUS) was carried out in the summer of 2015, about a year after program completion.
• The sample size for the evaluation is summarized in Table 3, with 338 re-interviewed participants and 250 re-interviewed controls.
• Attrition bias was assessed and found to be minimal, as baseline outcomes between those who dropped out and those who remained were not significantly different.

Sample Balance

• Participants were randomly selected from a larger pool of eligible youth, stratified by gender.
• The baseline characteristics of participants and non-participants were similar, indicating a well-balanced sample.
• The only notable difference was the prevalence of having no formal job, which was slightly higher among participants (79%) compared to non-participants (75%).

Limitations and Interpretations

• The program's effects on criminal activity were not robust.
• The reduction in vandalism may be attributed to the change in social behavior rather than a direct reduction in crime.
• The study suggests that the UYEP had strong effects on social behavior and peer networks, but limited effects on the socioeconomic causes of crime.
• The economic benefits of reduced crime were estimated to be only 6% of the program's costs, indicating that the program may not be the most cost-effective in reducing crime.
• Theoretical implications suggest that while employment programs can improve social behavior, their impact on actual crime may depend on the type of youth and the nature of the employment opportunities.

Conclusion

The UYEP had positive effects on social behavior and peer networks, but limited impact on reducing criminal activity. The findings highlight the importance of considering both economic and social factors in the design of labor market programs for youth. Future evaluations should focus on understanding the relative importance of these factors in influencing criminal behavior and the effectiveness of different program pathways for different youth groups.

Key Information

• Location: Port Moresby, PNG
• Program: Urban Youth Employment Project (UYEP)
• Interventions: Public works employment (YJC) and job training (SDES)
• Duration: 12 to 18 months post-program
• Sample Size: Approximately 2,213 eligible youth, with 743 selected for the program
• Methodology: Difference-in-Differences (DiD)
• Key Outcomes:
  • Reduction in night-time socializing
  • Lower likelihood of having criminal friends
  • Decreased aggression and property damage
  • No significant reduction in criminal activity
• Implications: The program may be more effective in social inclusion and behavioral change than in direct crime reduction.

References to Theories

• Economic Choice Theory: Suggests that employment reduces the incentive to commit crime.
• Control Theory: Indicates that lack of employment leads to weakened social bonds and increased crime.
• Labeling Theory: Suggests that employment programs may not be effective for those already labeled as criminals.
• Adaptive Behavior: Criminals may adjust their behavior on the intensive margin rather than quitting crime entirely.

Future Directions

• The UYEP has evolved over time, offering more varied pathways for youth.
• The project will continue to evaluate which interventions are most effective for different groups of youth.
• Further research is needed to understand the interaction between economic and social factors in reducing crime.