> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Summary ## Core Content and Key Highlights Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported its 4Q25 results, showing strong performance with total revenue of RMB4.8bn, up 14.2% YoY, and adjusted net profit of RMB780mn, up 18% YoY. Both figures exceeded forecasts and Bloomberg consensus estimates by 4% and 1%, respectively. The core OTA business delivered inline revenue and earnings growth, with revenue reaching RMB4.1bn (83.9% of total revenue), up 17.5% YoY. ## Main Points - **4Q25 Performance**: - Total revenue: RMB4.8bn (+14.2% YoY) - Adjusted net profit: RMB780mn (+18% YoY) - Core OTA revenue: RMB4.1bn (+17.5% YoY) - Core OTA OPM: 28.4% (flat YoY) - **1Q26 Outlook**: - Total revenue expected to grow 12.7% YoY to RMB4.9bn - Core OTA revenue to grow 15.9% YoY - Tourism revenue to decline 7.5% YoY - Core OTA operating profit to grow 16% YoY to RMB348mn, with OPM at 29.2% - Non-GAAP net profit to grow 17% YoY to RMB922mn, with non-GAAP net margin at 18.7% - **2026E Outlook**: - Total revenue to grow 12.5% YoY - Core OTA revenue to grow 14.7% YoY - Tourism revenue to remain flat - Core OTA operating profit to grow 15% YoY - Group-level non-GAAP net income to grow 17% YoY ## Key Financial Metrics | Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 17,341 | 19,396 | 21,824 | 23,216 | 24,182 | | YoY Growth (%) | 45.8 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 4.2 | | Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | 2,785.4 | 3,403.3 | 3,983.8 | 4,387.3 | 4,658.9 | | Diluted EPS (RMB) | 1.22 | 1.46 | 1.66 | 1.80 | 1.88 | | Consensus EPS (RMB) | na | 1.44 | 1.63 | 1.83 | 1.79 | | P/E (x) | 19.0 | 16.1 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 9.9 | ## Forecast Revisions - CMBIGM raised 2026E and 2027E non-GAAP net profit forecasts by 5% due to better-than-expected gross profit margin expansion. - The core OTA business is expected to drive growth, with operating profit margin stable at 28.4% in 4Q25. - DCF-derived target price is revised up to HK$25.5, implying a 14.3x 2026E non-GAAP P/E. - Maintain **BUY** rating. ## Segment Analysis - **Transportation Ticketing Services**: - 4Q25 revenue: RMB1.8bn (+6.5% YoY) - 1Q26 forecast: RMB1.8bn (+7.6% YoY) - **Accommodation Reservation Services (AR)**: - 4Q25 revenue: RMB1.3bn (+15.4% YoY) - 1Q26 forecast: RMB1.3bn (+12.9% YoY) - **Other Services**: - 4Q25 revenue: RMB0.9bn (+53.0% YoY) - 1Q26 forecast: RMB0.9bn (+49.0% YoY) ## Shareholding and Stock Data - **Market Cap**: HK$43,852.3m - **Average 3-Month Trading Value**: HK$198.3m - **52-Week High/Low**: HK$25.32 / HK$18.08 - **Total Issued Shares**: 2,338.8m - **Shareholding Structure**: - TCHapphire Limited: 13.4% - C-Travel International Limited: 12.4% ## Share Performance - **12-Month Price Performance**: - Absolute: -15.2% - Relative: -10.1% - **3-Month**: Absolute -16.4%, Relative -13.9% - **6-Month**: Absolute -18.9%, Relative -14.2% ## Valuation and Margin Trends - **Gross Margin**: - 4Q25: 65.9% - 2026E: 68.8% - **Operating Margin**: - 4Q25: 21.0% - 2026E: 21.0% - **Non-GAAP Net Margin**: - 4Q25: 16.1% - 2026E: 18.3% - **ROE**: - 4Q25: 15.1% - 2026E: 15.1% ## Analyst Ratings - **CMBIGM Rating**: **BUY** - **Target Price**: HK$25.50 (up from previous HK$25.40) - **Upside/Downside**: 36.0% - **Current Price**: HK$18.75 ## Financial Summary (Selected Metrics) | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 11,896 | 17,341 | 19,396 | 21,824 | 23,216 | 24,182 | | Gross Profit (RMB mn) | 8,738 | 11,113 | 12,858 | 15,020 | 16,052 | 16,757 | | Operating Profit (RMB mn) | 1,869 | 2,423 | 3,137 | 4,585 | 5,010 | 5,364 | | Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | 2,192 | 2,785 | 3,403 | 3,984 | 4,387 | 4,659 | | Net Debt to Equity (x) | (0.1) | (0.2) | (0.1) | (0.2) | (0.3) | (0.4) | | Current Ratio (x) | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | ## Key Outlook - The core OTA business is expected to continue delivering resilient earnings growth in 2026, supported by strong travel demand. - The company's non-GAAP net profit and operating profit margins are projected to improve, driven by higher-margin OTA business and operational efficiencies. - The DCF valuation model suggests a target price of HK$25.5, indicating potential upside for investors. - The overall outlook remains positive, with a **BUY** rating maintained. ## Conclusion Tongcheng Travel has demonstrated consistent revenue and profit growth in the past year, with the core OTA segment performing particularly well. The company is expected to maintain this growth trajectory in 2026, with both revenue and adjusted net profit increasing. Analysts have raised their forecasts, citing strong margin expansion and resilient demand. The current valuation appears attractive, with a target price of HK$25.5, and the stock is recommended as a **BUY**. Investors should consider the company's long-term growth potential and financial health before making investment decisions.