20260324-招银国际-复宏汉霖-02696.HK-Accelerating_global_commercialization_and_innovation_5页_676kb

Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) Summary

Core Content

Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is a biotechnology company focused on accelerating global commercialization and innovation, particularly in the biosimilar and biologics sectors. The company has demonstrated strong financial performance in FY25, driven by robust product sales growth, particularly from its PD-1 inhibitor, serplulimab. Henlius is expanding its global biosimilar footprint and forming new international partnerships, positioning itself as a leader in the development of next-generation biologics, such as HLX43 (PD-L1 ADC) and HLX22 (HER2 mAb).

Main Points

• Financial Performance (FY25):

  • Total revenue: RMB6.67bn (+16.5% YoY)
  • Total product sales: RMB5.77bn (+17.0% YoY), exceeding the previous estimate of RMB5.35bn
  • Net profit: RMB827mn, maintaining net profitability
  • R&D investment: RMB2.49bn (+35.4% YoY), highlighting the company's commitment to innovation

• Global Commercialization:

  • Serplulimab's global sales reached RMB2.97bn (+5.5% YoY)
  • Overseas product sales increased by 100% YoY to RMB260mn
  • HLX43 is in pivotal stages, with global Phase 2 trials ongoing in NSCLC and expected to complete enrollment by 4Q26
  • HLX22 showed best-in-class efficacy in gastric cancer, with Phase 2 data demonstrating improved PFS and OS when combined with standard of care

• Regulatory and Clinical Catalysts:

  • US bridging study for serplulimab in 1L ES-SCLC completed enrollment in October 2025
  • ESMO 2026 data readout and US BLA submission for serplulimab are anticipated
  • China NDA for perioperative GC is expected in mid-2026
  • HLX43 Phase 3 MRCT for 1L HER2+ GC is in progress, with data readouts expected in 1H27

• Investor Rating and Valuation:

  • Analysts maintain a BUY rating with a target price of HK$99.78, up from HK$97.75
  • The company's risk-adjusted DCF valuation is shown in Figure 1, with the target price reflecting a 52.0% upside from the current price of HK$65.65
  • The valuation model assumes a WACC of 9.13% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%

Key Information

• Product Sales Highlights:

  • Serplulimab: RMB1.50bn (+14.0% YoY)
  • Trastuzumab: RMB2.97bn (+5.5% YoY)
  • Overseas sales: RMB260mn (+100% YoY)

• Key Financial Metrics:

  • Earnings Summary:

    • Revenue growth: 16.5% in FY25, with expected growth of 10.0% in FY26 and 12.9% in FY28
    • Net profit: RMB827mn in FY25, with a slight increase to RMB847mn in FY26 and RMB830mn in FY28
    • EPS: RMB1.52 in FY25, with projections of RMB1.56 in FY26 and RMB1.53 in FY28

  • Valuation:

    • P/E ratio: 37.9 in FY25, expected to rise to 62.7 in FY27
    • Value per share: HK$99.78, based on DCF model
    • Equity value: RMB47,831mn, with a market cap of HK$35,680.4mn

  • Shareholding:

    • Fosun holds 71.5% of the shares
    • Lin Lijun holds 3.1%

  • Share Performance:

    • 12-month price performance: +7.6% absolute, +13.8% relative
    • 1-month price performance: -5.4%
    • 6-month price performance: -14.7%

• DCF Valuation (RMB mn):

  • 2026E: EBIT RMB870mn
  • 2027E: EBIT RMB506mn
  • 2028E: EBIT RMB845mn
  • Terminal value: RMB93,517mn in 2031E
  • Equity value: RMB47,831mn in 2025A

• Sensitivity Analysis:

  • Terminal growth rate has a significant impact on valuation, with lower growth rates reducing the value per share
  • WACC changes also influence the valuation, with higher rates decreasing the value per share

• CMBIGM Ratings:

  • BUY: Potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months
  • HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months
  • SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months

Conclusion

Henlius Biotech is positioned for continued growth with a strong product pipeline and strategic international expansion. The company's financial performance in FY25 was robust, with notable sales increases and maintaining profitability despite increased R&D investment. The upcoming clinical and regulatory milestones, particularly for HLX43 and serplulimab, are expected to drive future growth and justify the current BUY rating and target price. Investors should be aware of the inherent risks in the securities market and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.