2009年-世界发展银行全球_Mongolia___The_Economic_Value_of_the_Upper_Tuul_Ecosystem_108页_2mb

Summary of "The Economic Value of the Upper Tuul Ecosystem"

Core Content

This document presents a comprehensive study on the economic value of the Upper Tuul Ecosystem in Mongolia, conducted by the World Bank and the Government of Mongolia. The report evaluates the ecosystem's role in supporting Ulaanbaatar's water supply, tourism, and land use, and highlights the economic implications of different management scenarios.

The study emphasizes the importance of the Upper Tuul as the primary water source for Ulaanbaatar, which supports over one million people, 20,000 businesses, and 330,000 livestock. It also serves as a major tourism hub, with around 130,000 annual visitors. The report outlines the economic benefits derived from the ecosystem, including tourism, herding, and forest products, and evaluates the costs and benefits of conservation versus degradation.

Main Points

1. Economic Value of the Upper Tuul Ecosystem

• Current Value: The Upper Tuul ecosystem contributes approximately Tug 28 billion annually to the Mongolian economy through tourism, herding, and forest-based activities.
• Water Value: The value of water use in Ulaanbaatar is estimated at Tug 90 billion annually, with around 2/3 of this value going to domestic consumers.
• Conservation Value: The present value of ecosystem conservation and sustainable use is estimated at Tug 1,370 billion over 25 years, which is higher than the status quo (Tug 1,293 billion) and rapid degradation (Tug 1,243 billion).
• Cost-Effectiveness: Every Tug 1 invested in conservation is expected to generate Tug 15 in economic benefits over 25 years.

2. Water Security and Ecosystem Services

• Water Supply Dependency: Ulaanbaatar's water supply is entirely dependent on the Tuul River and its tributaries, which are fed by rainfall, snowmelt, and groundwater.
• Groundwater Decline: Groundwater tables in Ulaanbaatar have declined significantly over the last 50 years, with current daily use at 212,000 cubic meters and projected to increase to 708,000 cubic meters by 2050.
• Ecological Link: The health of the Upper Tuul ecosystem directly affects surface water and groundwater availability. Natural vegetation plays a critical role in influencing runoff, discharge, and groundwater recharge.

3. Land and Resource Use in the Upper Tuul

• Protected Areas: Over 75% of the Upper Tuul Basin is designated as protected areas, including Gorkhi-Terelj National Park and Khan Khentii Strictly Protected Area.
• Human Activity: Despite conservation designations, the area is heavily used by 2,600 permanent residents, 50,000 livestock, and 130,000 tourists annually.
• Resource Exploitation: Annual resource use includes 8,500 cubic meters of firewood, 3,300 cubic meters of timber, and 20,000 kilograms of NTFPs.

4. Future Management Scenarios

• Three Scenarios:
  • Gradual Deterioration: Continued degradation of the ecosystem.
  • Rapid Degradation: Increased resource depletion and land degradation.
  • Conservation and Sustainable Use: Protection of the ecosystem to ensure long-term benefits.
• Hydrological Impact: Degradation leads to increased runoff and reduced groundwater levels, while conservation maintains base flow and groundwater stability.

5. Economic Implications of Conservation

• Conservation Costs:
  • Protected Area Management: Estimated at Tug 1 billion for Khan Khentii and Tug 3 billion for Gorkhi-Terelj.
  • Opportunity Costs: Local communities and land users lose Tug 4.5 billion in present value due to reduced land and resource use.
• Net Present Value (NPV):
  • Conservation scenario yields Tug 1,370 billion in NPV over 25 years.
  • No protection scenario results in a loss of Tug 400 billion over the same period.
  • The conservation scenario is the most economically beneficial, offering the greatest returns in terms of water, tourism, and land use.

6. Recommendations for Investment and Management

• Integrate Ecosystems into Water Infrastructure Planning: The Upper Tuul ecosystem should be recognized as a key component of Ulaanbaatar's water infrastructure.
• Stimulate Investment: Encourage both public and private investment in ecosystem conservation and sustainable use.
• Financial Incentives: Develop mechanisms to provide financial incentives for land and resource users to adopt sustainable practices.
• Disseminate Findings: Promote the full dissemination of the report and primary data to raise awareness and support for conservation efforts.

Key Information

• The study was funded by the Netherlands-Mongolia Trust Fund for Environmental Reform (NEMO2).
• The report includes maps and figures that illustrate the study area, land use, and water flow patterns.
• It highlights the ecological and economic interdependence between the Upper Tuul and Ulaanbaatar.
• The economic valuation approach used in the study can serve as a model for other regions in Mongolia.

Conclusion

The Upper Tuul Ecosystem is a vital asset for Mongolia's economic and environmental future. Conservation and sustainable use of the area provide substantial long-term economic benefits, particularly in terms of water security, tourism, and resource availability. While there are costs associated with conservation, these are outweighed by the economic gains and the need for integrated, long-term management strategies. The report underscores the importance of recognizing the ecosystem's value and implementing policies that support its protection and sustainable use.