战略与国际研究中心-US-Troop-Levels-And-Iraqi-Perceptions-of-the-United-States_6页_269kb

US Troop Levels and Iraqi Perceptions of the US

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of Iraqi public perceptions of the US military presence in Iraq, based on a February 2008 ABC News poll, and explores the impact of the US troop surge on security and political conditions in the country.

Main Views

• General Unpopularity of US Forces: Most Iraqis still view the US presence as unwelcome, with only 26% supporting it. However, this number has increased slightly from previous months.

• Mixed Views on Withdrawal: While a majority (38%) believe the US should leave now, fewer than half (46%) think that immediate withdrawal would improve security. This indicates that many Iraqis are cautious about a complete exit.

• Support for US Role in Security: Despite the overall negative sentiment, a significant majority (from two-thirds to 80%) support the US continuing to play a role in security operations, especially against Al Qaeda and foreign jihad in Iraq. This includes support for military training, weapons, and reconstruction aid.

• Improvement in Security Conditions: There has been a noticeable improvement in local security in areas like Baghdad and Anbar provinces, where the surge was most active. However, this improvement is not widely attributed to US forces.

• Volatility of Iraqi Sentiment: Iraqi public opinion remains volatile, and the February 2008 poll did not fully capture the improvements that had occurred in the preceding months, such as gains against Al Qaeda and the transfer of security responsibilities to Iraqi forces.

• Resentment of US Occupation: Iraqis continue to express resentment toward the US occupation, particularly due to perceived unnecessary violence by US and coalition forces. This sentiment is more pronounced among Sunnis than among Shiites or Kurds.

• Lack of Confidence in US Forces: Only 20% of Iraqis express confidence in US forces, and only 29% believe they have done a good job in Iraq. The majority (61%) think the US presence is making things worse.

Key Information

• Security Improvements:

  • 46% of Iraqis believe local security has improved in the past six months.
  • The number of Iraqis feeling entirely unsafe has dropped to 10%.
  • The number of suicide attacks and sectarian violence reported in the past six months has decreased.

• Future Role of the US:

  • 80% support the US continuing to confront Al Qaeda in Iraq.
  • 76% support US military training and weapons for the Iraqi army.
  • 73% support US reconstruction aid.
  • 68% support US efforts against Iran.
  • 66% support US efforts against Turkey.

• Credit for Security Improvements:

  • Iraqi institutions, particularly the national government (26%) and police (18%), are more often cited as the main contributors to improved security.
  • Only 4% of Iraqis credit US forces.

• Blame for Security Declines:

  • Militias are the most commonly blamed (31%).
  • Al Qaeda is next (9%).
  • US forces are blamed by 20%.
  • Politicians and political groups are blamed by 11%.
  • Other factors, including neighbor countries, also play a role.

• Resentment Toward US Forces:

  • 79% of Iraqis are not confident in US forces.
  • Sunnis are more likely to express resentment (96% not confident) than Shiites (82%) or Kurds (44% not confident).
  • Iraqis often cannot specify the type of violence they have experienced, which may include incidents involving Western contractors.

• Perceptions of Unnecessary Violence:

  • 42% of Iraqis believe that unnecessary violence by US or coalition forces has occurred nearby in the past 1-2 months.
  • 57% believe it has occurred in the past year.
  • This perception is especially strong among Sunnis (57% in February 2008).

Summary

While the US military presence in Iraq remains largely unpopular, there is a nuanced view among Iraqis that the US has played a role in improving security, particularly in areas affected by the surge. Despite this, the majority still believe that the US should leave as soon as possible, with concerns about what would happen after withdrawal. The poll highlights the complexity of Iraqi public opinion, with divisions along sectarian, ethnic, and regional lines. Although there are signs of improvement in security and some support for continued US involvement in specific areas, the overall perception of the US as an occupying force persists. The document also underscores the lack of confidence in US forces and the continued fear of unnecessary violence, especially among Sunnis.