2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Russian_Federation_Staff_Report_for_the_2011_Article_IV_Consultation_69页_1mb

Summary of the 2011 Article IV Consultation with the Russian Federation

Core Content

The 2011 Article IV consultation with the Russian Federation, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic recovery, policy responses, and future outlook. The consultation involved discussions with Russian officials, financial institutions, and experts, and resulted in a Staff Report, a Staff Statement, and a Public Information Notice (PIN). The report highlights the challenges of exiting the crisis, the current economic state, and policy recommendations aimed at achieving sustainable growth.

Main Points

Economic Recovery

• Uneven Recovery: The Russian economy showed improvement but the recovery was uneven. While some sectors like retail trade and fixed investment performed well, others faced moderation.
• GDP Growth: The preliminary 2011Q2 GDP growth was weaker than expected, with seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth at 0.1 percent, down from 0.9 percent in 2011Q1.
• Inflation: Inflation remained high at 9.4 percent in June 2011, despite a slight slowdown due to lower food prices and a stronger ruble. The staff revised the 2011 year-end inflation forecast to 7.5 percent.
• Current Account: The current account has strengthened due to high oil prices, but capital outflows have persisted, partly due to political uncertainty and a poor business climate.

Financial Conditions

• Stock Market and Sovereign Spreads: The MICEX index dropped by over 10 percent since the end of July, and the EMBI+ spread increased by about 35 basis points, indicating worsened financial conditions.
• Exchange Rate: The ruble has appreciated by 12 percent in real effective terms over the past year but is still slightly undervalued according to CGER estimates.
• Credit Growth: Credit growth resumed, but banks still face a high stock of nonperforming assets. Real credit growth was about 4 percent in 2010, with recent improvements.

Policy Response and Exit from Crisis

• Fiscal Policy: The fiscal stimulus was not fully withdrawn, and the general government nonoil deficit fell only slightly in 2010 due to economic recovery and under-executed spending, not deliberate tightening.
• Monetary Policy: The CBR delayed tightening monetary policy in response to rising inflation, with the overnight deposit rate increased only in late 2010.
• Financial Sector: The CBR has exited from crisis-related liquidity support and relaxed loan classification rules, but financial stability remains a concern.

Key Recommendations

• Fiscal Consolidation: The staff recommended a more ambitious and credible fiscal consolidation to reduce the nonoil deficit to a sustainable level. This would involve growth-friendly measures.
• Monetary Policy: A stronger monetary policy focus on inflation control is necessary to bring inflation down to the target range of 3–5 percent.
• Financial Sector Supervision: Enhanced financial sector oversight, including legislation on connected lending and consolidated supervision, is crucial for financial stability and sustainable credit growth.
• Investment Climate: Improving the investment climate through structural reforms is essential for long-term growth.

Outlook

Near-Term Outlook

• Moderate Growth: Staff forecasts real growth at 4.3 percent in 2011 and 4.1 percent in 2012, down from earlier projections due to a stronger-than-expected slowdown in global growth and lower oil prices.
• Inflation: Inflation is expected to fall to 7.5 percent by year-end 2011, but will still exceed the central bank's target range.
• Risks: Risks include a potential slowdown in global growth, lower oil prices, and capital outflows. Political uncertainty and a fragile banking system also pose challenges.

Medium-Term Outlook

• Growth Constraints: Medium-term growth is constrained by weak policy frameworks and over-reliance on oil exports. The baseline scenario projects real growth of 3.25 percent by 2016.
• Reforms Needed: To elevate growth, Russia needs stronger, more credible fiscal retrenchment, inflation control, a more competitive financial system, and structural reforms.
• Investor Confidence: Without significant reforms, investor confidence is unlikely to return quickly, and capital outflows will continue to hinder long-term growth.

Additional Context

• Strategy 2020: An initial draft of Strategy 2020 was released in August 2011, outlining recommendations for economic and social development. The strategy emphasizes macroeconomic and social stability, improving the business climate, and export diversification.
• Elections: Parliamentary elections were set for December 4, 2011, and presidential elections were planned for early 2012, which may delay some reforms.
• External Vulnerabilities: Russia remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly due to its dependence on oil and weak policy frameworks. The report also notes the potential negative spillovers from the Euro Area debt crisis.

Conclusion

The Russian Federation's economic recovery has been uneven, and the exit from crisis-related policies has been slow and insufficient. While high oil prices have supported the current account, inflation remains elevated, and financial conditions have deteriorated. The staff's policy advice remains focused on fiscal consolidation, inflation control, and structural reforms to improve the investment climate and reduce economic vulnerabilities. The consultation highlights the importance of addressing these issues to ensure sustainable growth and stability.