2017年-世界发展银行全球_Modal_Choice_between_Rail_and_Road_Transportation___Evidence_from_Tanzania_28页_1mb

Summary of "Modal Choice between Rail and Road Transportation: Evidence from Tanzania"

Core Content

This working paper investigates the modal choice between rail and road transportation in Tanzania, focusing on firm-level data to understand the determinants of transport mode selection. The study highlights the role of rail in freight transportation and its comparative advantages over road transport, particularly for long-haul and bulk freight operations.

Main Findings

• Rail vs. Road: Rail transport is generally more cost-effective for long-haul freight, especially when the distance is more than 500 km. Road transport, however, dominates in Tanzania due to improved infrastructure and the availability of truck services.
• Modal Choice Determinants: The paper identifies rail prices, shipping distance, and volume as key determinants of firms' modal choice. The type of transaction also influences the decision, with rail being more frequently used for international trade.
• Rail Operating Speed: The study finds that rail operating speed does not have a clear or unambiguous effect on firms' modal selection.
• Rail Tariffs: Rail freight tariffs in Tanzania are competitive compared to truck transportation, with costs ranging from US$0.03 to US$0.06 per ton-km. Despite this, the quality of rail services has deteriorated due to poor maintenance.
• Economic Impact: Rail transport is particularly important for connecting inland areas to the Port of Dar es Salaam, which is a major hub for international trade. The paper emphasizes that rail is more suitable for bulk goods and long-distance shipments.

Key Information

• Rail Network in Tanzania: Tanzania has approximately 3,557 km of rail lines, operated by two main companies: Tanzania Railways Limited (TRL) and Tanzania Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA).
• TRL and TAZARA: TRL operates on a narrow-gauge standard (1,000 mm) and connects Dar es Salaam with major inland cities. TAZARA is a binational rail network (50:50 between Tanzania and Zambia), based on the Cape Gauge (1,067 mm), and is used for connecting Dar es Salaam to Mbeya and New Mposhi in Zambia.
• Transport Costs: The cost of transporting one ton of goods to Dar es Salaam from Mwanza is about US$91, and from Kigoma is US$95. These costs are significantly lower than truck transport costs, which range from US$0.05 to US$0.12 per ton-km.
• Firm Behavior: Only 3% of firms in the study are direct rail users, while the majority use road transport. Rail is more commonly used for international trade, particularly for exports and imports.
• Data and Methodology: The study uses firm-level data collected from approximately 500 firms across 18 regions in Tanzania. It applies traditional multinomial logit and McFadden's choice models to estimate the determinants of modal choice.

Policy Implications

• Infrastructure Maintenance: The poor condition of rail infrastructure is a major barrier to its competitiveness. Improved maintenance and investment are essential to restore rail freight operations.
• Trade Facilitation: Rail transport is crucial for facilitating international trade, especially for firms dealing with bulk commodities. Enhancing rail connectivity and service quality could support the growth of trade and industrial activities.
• Modal Mix: The paper suggests that road and rail can coexist and complement each other, depending on the distance and type of freight. This insight supports the current modal mix in Tanzania and could inform transport policy decisions.

Conclusion

The study underscores the importance of rail in long-haul and bulk freight transportation in Tanzania. While road transport is currently dominant, rail offers significant cost advantages for certain types of freight and transactions. The findings highlight the need for investment in rail infrastructure and maintenance to enhance its competitiveness and support sustainable economic growth.