2025-06-11-Jefferies-BLCO_IQVIA五月_Miebo环比增长势头持续_较2025年第一季度增长26_；Xiidra_IRA重新调整_10页_239kb

Summary of Equity Research: USA Medical Supplies & Devices

This report, dated June 10, 2025, analyzes script trends and financial performance for medical supplies and devices, with a focus on two products: Miebo and Xiidra. Below is a concise summary of key findings, risks, and valuation metrics.

Product Performance Trends

• Miebo: Showed strong growth momentum in May 2025 with weekly TRx +26% year-over-year compared to 4Q24 and 1Q25 levels, reaching approximately 25.3k scripts in May (vs. 20.1k in 1Q25). Monthly TRx in April was +26% vs. 1Q25 averages, indicating sustained sequential growth. Revenue for 1Q25 was $57 MM, and with continued momentum, 2Q25 revenue is estimated at ~$71 MM, projecting 58% year-over-year growth by 2025. Management targets peak revenue of $500+ MM.
• Xiidra: Experienced slower growth in May with weekly TRx +4% vs. 1Q25 levels (~22.4k scripts). April monthly TRx was +7% vs. 1Q25 averages (~98.1k scripts). However, revenue declined due to IRA impacts, with 1Q25 at $67 MM (QoQ -36%, YoY -15%). Assuming similar growth, annual revenue for 2025 is projected at -22% YoY, with ongoing gross-to-net adjustment headwinds for future growth.

Combined Miebo and Xiidra revenue run rate for 2025 is ~$555 MM.

Valuation and Growth Projections

• Price Target: $18 per share, based on a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2026, reflecting a discount to peers like Alcon and CooperCompanies but a premium to traditional pharma firms.
• Revenue Growth: Miebo demonstrates high momentum, while Xiidra faces regulatory and reimbursement challenges. Overall growth could lead to higher valuation if sustained.

Key Risks

1. International expansion (OUS) and product launch delays.
2. Shifts in market share within vision care or ophthalmic pharma segments.
3. Manufacturing and regulatory headwinds.
4. Pricing pressures and increased competition.
5. Economic downturns affecting healthcare spending.

Analyst Certifications

• The report is produced by Jefferies analysts, including Young Li, Matthew Taylor (CFA), Michael Sarcone (CFA), Michael Toomey (CFA), and Matthew Aspro. All certifications confirm that views reflect personal analysis, and compensation is not tied to recommendations. The investment recommendation is "Buy," based on expected 15-20% total return over 12 months.

This summary captures the core analysis without referencing redundant details.