20241118-开源证券-联想集团-00992.HK-港股公司信息更新报告_待外部环境明朗_提振FY2026业绩成长信心_3页_625kb

Computer/Computer Equipment Mandatory Refer to Postscript Information Disclosure and Legal Statements

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Lenovo Group (00992HK) Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained)
Date 2024/11/15
Current Stock Price (HKD) 9,170
One-Year High/Low (HKD) 12,260 / 7,800
Market Capitalization (Billion HKD) 11,375
Tradable Market Cap (Billion HKD) 11,375
Total Shareholding (Billion Shares) 12,405
Tradable Hong Kong Shares (Billion Shares) 12,405
Last 3 Months Turnover Ratio (%) 2692

Stock Price Chart
Data Source: PolySource

《FY2025业绩可期，FY2026有待AIPC换机兑现—港股公司信息更新报告》2024816
《AIPC持续迭代，AI服务器逐步放量—港股公司信息更新报告》2024524
《AIPC软硬件持续优化，服务器增长动能加强—港股公司信息更新报告》2024421
等待外部环境明朗，提振FY2026业绩成长信心——港股公司信息更新报告

Wu Liuyan (Analyst) Yang Zhe (Analyst)
Certificate No.: S0790524100001

鉴于2025财年第二季度PCASP提升，将2025年净利润预期从1229亿美元上调至1271亿美元；考虑到服务器行业竞争激烈、ISG业务亏损收窄进程可能延后、潜在关税风险或导致产能转移带来折旧及费用增加，将2026-2027年净利润预期从1538/1901亿美元下调至1462/1723亿美元，同比增速分别为25.8%/15.0%/17.9%，相应调整摊薄后每股收益为0.085/0.098/0.116美元，折合0.66/0.76/0.90港元。917港元当前股价对应2025-2027年138/120/102倍市盈率，等待潜在关税政策及产能转移规划明确、有望驱动2026-2027年业绩成长确定性提升，维持“买入”评级。

2025财年第二季度业绩符合预期，AI PC渗透率推动其PC业务平均销售价格提升。2025年第二季度营收同比增长24%，PC/智能手机/平板电脑营业额分别增长12%/43%/19%。PC业务量价齐升，根据IDC数据，2024年第三季度联想PC出货量同比增长30%，优于市场下滑，得益于AI PC渗透率提升带来的平均销售价格上涨。ISG业务收入同比增长65%，环比增长46%，AI服务器拉动幅度温和。SSG业务增长13%表现稳健。2025年第二季度归属母公司净利润359亿美元，IDG业务经营利润率73.3%基本稳定、ISG经营亏损率环比收窄0.1个百分点至-10.8%。

预计全年2025年利润有保障，PC业务进入促销旺季，ISG客户获取能力提升。考虑到2024年四季度中国双十一促销活动叠加3C补贴有望刺激国内PC销售回暖，以及海外黑色星期五促销旺季，预计公司2025年第三季度收入利润或环比上升，2025年第四季度为季节性淡季。新任ISG业务集团负责人Ashley曾领导戴尔EMC的服务器与存储业务成功增长至全球市场份额第一，有望增强海外客户拓展能力，超微陷入财务造假风波亦有望提振联想潜在市场份额，预计2025年第三季度至第四季度AI服务器业务订单到营收转化速度将加快。特朗普上台引发行业系统性潜在关税风险，公司美洲收入占比33%，凭借全球化工厂布局及供应链优势，有望抓住时间窗口加速应对。

风险提示：全球IT资本开支不及预期，原材料成本上涨，宏观经济增速放缓。

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FINANCIAL SUMMARY AND VALUATION INDICATORS

（表格内容未翻译）

Heng Sang Company Information Update Report
Mandatory Refer to Postscript Information Disclosure and Legal Statements
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Stock Rating Explanation
Buy (Buy): Expected to outperform the market by more than 20%.
Outperform (Outperform): Expected to outperform the market by 5%~20%.
Neutral (Neutral): Expected to have a performance range of -5%~+5% compared to the market.
Underperform (Underperform): Expected to underperform the market by 5% or less.

Industry Rating Explanation
Overweight (Overweight): Expected for the industry to outperform the overall market.
Neutral (Neutral): Expected for the industry to perform in line with the overall market.
Underperform (Underperform): Expected for the industry to underperform the overall market.

Note: The rating standards are based on the price movement of securities relative to the benchmark index from 6~12 months after the report date. The A-share benchmark index is CSI 300 Index, the Hong Kong-listed equity benchmark index is Hang Seng Index, the新三板 (New Three Board) benchmark index depends on the type: for equity transfer listed companies, it's the ThreeBoard Growth Index, and for quote transfer listed companies, it's the ThreeBoard Mean Index. For US stocks, the benchmark indices are S & P 500 Index or NASDAQ Composite Index. Please note that different securities research institutions may adopt different rating terms and standards. We use a relative rating system to indicate the recommended allocation proportion; investors should use their own individual circumstances such as current portfolio structure and other relevant considerations to determine whether to buy or sell securities. Investors should read the full report to get a comprehensive perspective and not rely solely on investment ratings to infer conclusions.

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