2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Household_Production_Services_and_Monetary_Policy_40页_1mb

Summary of "Household Production, Services and Monetary Policy"

Core Content

This working paper explores the implications of household production on monetary policy, particularly in the context of the U.S. economy. It introduces a new mechanism by which household production can influence the real effects of monetary shocks, especially in the service sector, and how this affects the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The paper integrates a household sector into a standard sticky price DSGE model, which includes both market services and nondurable goods.

Main Points

1. Household Production and Substitutability

• A significant portion of consumer services can be produced at home, unlike nondurable goods, which are exclusively market-supplied.
• Households can substitute between home and market services based on economic conditions, such as changes in the real wage and the price of market services.
• This substitutability affects the behavior of firms in the service sector, making them more reluctant to change prices in response to monetary shocks.
• The paper emphasizes that household production is a substantial component of the economy, with people spending nearly 26 hours per week on home activities.

2. Impact on Monetary Policy

• Household production introduces an additional term to the NKPC for the service sector, which co-moves negatively with the output gap.
• This term increases the degree of nominal rigidity in the service sector, thereby amplifying the real effects of monetary shocks.
• In contrast, the nondurable goods sector does not experience this amplification since households cannot produce substitutes at home.
• The large size of the service sector means that its effects on aggregate output and inflation are more pronounced.

3. Empirical Evidence

• Empirical data from the U.S. suggests that household production is a major component of the economy, both in terms of time and expenditure.
• The paper uses a sectoral VAR model to analyze the response of real consumption and prices to monetary shocks.
• The results show that consumer services respond more strongly and for a longer period to monetary policy changes compared to nondurables and durables.

4. Key Findings

• Real sectoral consumption in the service sector drops by 0.12% in the first quarter following a monetary tightening, while nondurables and durables experience smaller declines.
• The effects of monetary shocks last longer in the service sector, with a 9-quarter response compared to 6 and 7 quarters for the other sectors.
• The substitutability of home and market services is supported by empirical evidence, such as child care and food expenditure data.

Key Information

• Household Production:

  • Defined as the production of goods and services for self-consumption, often at home.
  • Includes activities like housework, food preparation, and child care.
  • The U.S. population spends about 26.39 hours per week on household production, with women contributing more than men.

• Substitutability:

  • Services are more substitutable with home production than nondurable goods.
  • Elasticity of substitution estimates range from 1.5 to 2.5 across studies.
  • Child care and food services are used as examples of substitutable services.

• Monetary Policy Implications:

  • The inclusion of household production in the model leads to a more pronounced real effect of monetary shocks in the service sector.
  • The model features an augmented NKPC with an additional term that reflects the substitutability between home and market services.
  • This term reduces the need for high exogenous price rigidity, as firms are more reluctant to change prices due to the presence of household substitutes.

• Sectoral vs. Aggregate Effects:

  • At the sectoral level, household production increases the real effects of monetary shocks.
  • At the aggregate level, it implies more sluggish price adjustments and a stronger response of real macroeconomic variables to monetary shocks.

Simulation Results

• The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy using quarterly data from 1967:Q1 to 2007:Q4.
• The results are robust to various specifications and filtering techniques.
• The paper also provides empirical support from a VAR model and from data on household and market production.

Conclusion

• The paper argues that household production plays a crucial role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, particularly in the service sector.
• It suggests that the presence of household production can explain the observed real effects of monetary shocks and the sluggishness of price adjustments.
• The model contributes to the understanding of how the service sector's characteristics affect the overall macroeconomic response to monetary policy.

References and Appendices

• The paper includes appendices with proofs and reduced equations for the linearized model.
• It also presents dynamic responses of macroeconomic variables to monetary shocks, as well as a detailed description of the model's structure and assumptions.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Weekly hours spent on various household activities, including total home production and market hours.
• Table 2: Child care expenses as a percentage of monthly income for families with employed mothers.
• Figure 1: Estimated responses of real sectoral consumption to a monetary policy tightening.
• Figure 2: De-trended home and market hours worked over the business cycle.
• Figure 3: Expenditures on food at home and away from home over the business cycle.

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of how household production affects monetary policy transmission, offering both theoretical and empirical support for its implications.