2006年-世界发展银行全球_Somalia_Joint_Needs_Assessment___Macroeconomic_Policy_Framework_and_Data_Development_Cluster_Report_125页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Somali Joint Needs Assessment: Macroeconomic Policy Framework and Data Development Cluster Report

Core Content

This document outlines the SOMALI JOINT NEEDS ASSESSMENT focusing on the Macroeconomic Policy Framework and Data Development Cluster. It was prepared by the United Nations and the World Bank in August 2006, with contributions from Somali and sectoral experts. The report provides an overview of the economic and social situation in Somalia, the current state of its financial systems, and the priorities for rebuilding and developing public finance and data systems.

Main Objectives

The report identifies the following key objectives for the macroeconomic policy and data development cluster:

Establish and maintain macroeconomic stability.
Develop a stable currency and a sound public revenue base.
Create accountable budgetary processes, public finance management, and revenue systems.
Reestablish financial services.
Build core civil service institutions.
Secure statistical data necessary for policy and institutional development.

Key Economic Developments

Somalia has a population of 7.7 million, with an income per capita of $226, significantly lower than the $515 average in Sub-Saharan Africa.
During the 1980s, Somalia experienced stagnant per capita output, deteriorating infrastructure, declining public services, and severe macroeconomic imbalances, leading to negative growth in the 1988–90 period.
The tax system was distortionary and inefficient, with government revenue at 5–7% of GDP (one of the lowest in Africa).
Inflation remained high due to credit expansion by the state-run commercial bank, money creation, and budget deficit financing.
The collapse of the commercial bank in the 1990s led to loss of public confidence in government and financial institutions.

Current Economic Situation

Since 1991, the economy has been affected by droughts, lack of government, and local conflicts.
Private investment has increased significantly in sectors such as trade, transport, communications, education, and health, primarily funded by diaspora remittances, which now amount to US$1 billion annually (71.4% of GNP).
Agriculture, particularly agropastoralism and crop production, dominates GDP.
Poverty is widespread, with 43% of the population living below the extreme poverty line (US$1/day at PPP), and 61% in urban areas and 80% in rural areas below the US$2/day poverty line.
Income inequality is high, with a GINI coefficient of 0.4.
Unemployment is at 47.4% among the working-age population.

Macroeconomic Policy Strategy

Avoiding budget deficits and containing local currency supply are key to maintaining macroeconomic stability.
A "no-overdraft" rule and a budget act that precludes unfunded commitments are proposed.
The Ministry of Finance and Central Bank will eventually be responsible for formulating and implementing macroeconomic policy, but small units are proposed for the first two years due to limited resources.
Tax policy changes, revenue forecasts, and monthly revenue monitoring are essential for the Ministry of Finance.
A simple tax system is proposed, focusing on economic transaction taxes (e.g., wholesale sales tax) and uniform application to imports and major services.
A low ad valorem import tax (5%) is suggested for most goods, with the potential for higher rates on luxuries or harmful goods.
Service fees should apply to passports and infrastructure use, such as airports.
A low export tax on livestock and tax on remittance profits are proposed as initial measures, with the intention to replace them with an income tax when feasible.

Public Finance Management

A financial management agent and procurement agency are proposed for the first two years to support institutional building.
Computerization, software acquisition, staff training, and participatory budgeting are emphasized.
Inter-governmental transfers and procurement laws need to be clarified and implemented.
South-Central Somalia requires new financial management capacity, while Puntland and Somaliland can build on existing structures.
Transparency and accountability are critical to rebuilding public confidence and securing development assistance.

Civil Service Development

The federal government should prioritize:
- Hiring a small number of professional staff for policy management and advisory.
- Establishing a Civil Service Commission to ensure professional staffing and inter-level coordination.
- Creating expenditure management and financial accountability systems.
- Developing revenue mobilization capacity.
In Puntland, the focus is on reviewing roles and functions of different levels of government and capacity building.
In Somaliland, the priority is rightsizing and building local government capacity.
Equal access for women and physically disadvantaged individuals is emphasized.

Financial Services Expansion

Expanding financial services is essential for private sector development and domestic firms to compete for reconstruction contracts.
Sound commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions should be encouraged to provide microcredit and small-scale financing.
The existing money transfer system should be leveraged for financial service expansion.
Joint venture partnerships with foreign banks and remittance companies are proposed.
Prudential regulations and supervisory arrangements will be necessary for financial stability.

Data Development

Somalia lacks formal statistical systems, and data collection is fragmented and incomplete.
Macro and social statistics are crucial for policy-making, planning, budgeting, and service delivery.
Reliable data is essential for monitoring and evaluation, transparency, and accountability.
A national strategy for data development is proposed, with strong collaboration between data producers and users.
The population census is identified as the most critical statistical need, as it provides a framework for all further data collection.
Gender-disaggregated data is needed to design effective investments and protect the vulnerable.

Key Initiatives

Initiative	Description
Tax system reform	Establish a simple, efficient, and transparent tax system.
Public finance management	Build financial management and procurement systems.
Civil service development	Hire professional staff, establish commissions, and improve accountability.
Financial services expansion	Attract commercial banks, develop microfinance, and strengthen the payments system.
Data development strategy	Launch a census, collect social and macroeconomic indicators, and build institutional structures.

Implementation and Support

Training and recruitment of staff in accounting, budgeting, computer skills, and record keeping are needed.
Transparency and merit-based recruitment policies are recommended.
Technical and financial assistance from the UK Department for International Development is acknowledged.
Donors, NGOs, and local authorities should collaborate in data collection, service delivery, and revenue mobilization.

Conclusion

The report underscores the urgent need for macroeconomic stability, efficient public finance management, revenue mobilization, civil service reform, and data development in Somalia. These initiatives are critical for rebuilding public confidence, attracting investment, and supporting sustainable development. The population census is highlighted as the most important data initiative, providing a foundation for future policy and planning.

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