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US Investment, Trade, and Oil Interests in the Middle East Summary

Core Content Overview

This document, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman and published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in January 1998, provides an analysis of U.S. investment, trade, and oil interests in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It outlines the economic relationships between the U.S. and various countries in the region, highlighting trends in investment, trade, and oil imports over the years 1993–1998.

US Direct Investment in the Middle East

Table One Summary

The table presents U.S. direct investment figures in the Middle East and Gulf region from 1993 to 1996. The investment trends vary significantly across countries, with some experiencing growth and others decline.

• North Africa:

  • Algeria: Investment increased from 1993 to 1996, reaching $600 million in 1996.
  • Morocco: Investment fluctuated, with a sharp increase in 1994 to $890 million.
  • Tunisia: Investment grew steadily, reaching $81 million in 1996.

• Arab-Israeli Region:

  • Israel: Investment remained high, with values ranging from $1,357 million in 1994 to $1,886 million in 1996.
  • Jordan: Investment was minimal and mostly absent in 1994 and 1995.
  • Egypt: Investment remained relatively stable, reaching $1,647 million in 1996.

• Gulf Countries:

  • Bahrain: Investment fluctuated, with a negative value in 1996.
  • Kuwait: Investment increased, reaching $288 million in 1996.
  • Oman: Investment remained relatively stable.
  • Qatar: Investment grew significantly, reaching $742 million in 1996.
  • Saudi Arabia: Investment increased, reaching $3,098 million in 1996.
  • UAE: Investment grew steadily, reaching $789 million in 1996.
  • Yemen: Investment fluctuated, reaching $809 million in 1996.

• Total MENA Investment:

  • Increased from $7,417 million in 1993 to $10,223 million in 1996.

US Trade with the Middle East and Gulf

Table Two Summary

This table details U.S. trade with the Middle East and Gulf countries from 1994 to 1997. It includes both exports and imports, showing the economic interdependence between the U.S. and the region.

• North Africa:

  • Algeria: Exports declined from 1994 to 1996, while imports increased.
  • Morocco: Exports decreased in 1995 but remained relatively stable in 1996; imports were low.
  • Tunisia: Exports and imports decreased in 1996.

• Arab-Israeli Region:

  • Egypt: Exports declined significantly, while imports remained relatively stable.
  • Israel: Exports and imports both increased in 1996.
  • Jordan: Exports and imports were low.
  • Lebanon: Exports and imports were relatively low.
  • Syria: Exports and imports decreased in 1996.

• Gulf Countries:

  • Bahrain: Exports decreased in 1995 and 1996, while imports remained relatively stable.
  • Iran: Exports decreased in 1995, while imports remained low.
  • Iraq: Exports increased in 1996, while imports were low.
  • Kuwait: Exports and imports both increased.
  • Oman: Exports and imports remained relatively stable.
  • Qatar: Exports decreased, while imports remained stable.
  • Saudi Arabia: Exports and imports both increased significantly.
  • UAE: Exports decreased in 1996, while imports increased.
  • Yemen: Exports and imports decreased in 1996.

• Total Arab Countries:

  • Exports increased from $10,712.8 million in 1994 to $13,906.9 million in 1996.
  • Imports increased from $11,450.5 million in 1994 to $15,287.4 million in 1996.

• Total MENA Trade:

  • Exports increased from $20,804.6 million in 1994 to $24,403.6 million in 1996.
  • Imports increased from $19,323.3 million in 1994 to $22,540.6 million in 1996.

US Oil Imports from the Gulf and Middle East

Table Three Summary

This table outlines U.S. oil imports from the Gulf and Middle East countries for the years 1994–1996, showing the major sources of oil imports and their impact on the U.S. economy.

• Arab OPEC:

  • Kuwait: Was the largest supplier of oil to the U.S., with imports increasing from 77,903 thousand barrels in 1995 to 86,127 thousand barrels in 1996.
  • Saudi Arabia: Was the second-largest supplier, with imports decreasing slightly from 459,826 thousand barrels in 1995 to 456,896 thousand barrels in 1996.
  • Iraq: Imports were minimal in 1995 but increased in 1996.
  • UAE: Imports decreased in 1996.
  • Other OPEC:
    • Nigeria: Was a major supplier of oil, with imports decreasing from 226,574 thousand barrels in 1995 to 217,911 thousand barrels in 1996.
    • Venezuela: Imports increased significantly from 419,996 thousand barrels in 1995 to 476,511 thousand barrels in 1996.
    • Gabon: Imports increased in 1996.
    • Angola: Imports decreased slightly in 1996.
    • Russia: Imports increased in 1996.
    • Other Non-OPEC countries: Imports varied, with some showing significant growth.

• Non-OPEC Middle East:

  • Egypt: Imports increased in 1996.
  • Oman: Imports increased in 1996.
  • Yemen: Imports decreased in 1996.

• Total Oil Imports:

  • Increased from 2,638,810 thousand barrels in 1995 to 2,747,839 thousand barrels in 1996.

Impact of Different Oil Prices on the World Economy

Table Four Summary

This table estimates the cost of world oil imports and the value of exports by region under different oil price scenarios (1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015).

• OECD North America:

  • Oil imports increased over time.
  • The cost of oil imports rose significantly, especially with higher oil prices.

• OECD Europe:

  • Oil imports decreased slightly in 2000 but increased in subsequent years.
  • The cost of oil imports remained relatively stable.

• Asia:

  • Oil imports increased significantly, reflecting growing demand.
  • The cost of oil imports increased, indicating higher prices and greater consumption.

• Middle East:

  • Oil exports increased over time, showing the region's importance as an oil supplier.
  • The value of oil exports rose significantly, especially under higher oil price assumptions.

Key Points and Findings

• Investment Trends: U.S. direct investment in the Middle East and Gulf region increased from 1993 to 1996, with significant contributions from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE.
• Trade Dynamics: Trade with the Middle East and Gulf region was dominated by exports to Saudi Arabia and imports from the region, with some fluctuations across countries.
• Oil Imports: The U.S. heavily relied on oil imports from Arab OPEC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and other OPEC members like Nigeria and Venezuela.
• Economic Impact: The cost of oil imports and the value of exports were significantly influenced by oil price changes, with higher prices leading to increased costs and export values.
• Regional Variability: Investment and trade levels varied greatly among countries, with some experiencing steady growth and others showing declines.

Conclusion

The document underscores the significant U.S. economic interests in the Middle East and Gulf region, particularly in investment and oil trade. It highlights the fluctuating nature of these relationships over time and the impact of oil prices on global economic activity. The U.S. continues to be a major importer of oil from the region, with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait being the most important sources.