> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # China Economy # PMI weakened amid CNY distortions China's manufacturing PMI showed broad-based softening in Feb amid distortions from the Chinese New Year (CNY). Demand and production both deteriorated, with new order index and export index both dropping to a new low. Nevertheless, reflation continued as raw material and ex-factory prices remained in expansion. Non-manufacturing PMI remained in contraction, as construction sites mostly suspended during CNY. A softening property market, weaker durable goods sales, and slower manufacturing have pointed to fading growth momentum in early 2026. At tomorrow's annual NPC meeting, policymakers may keep the broad fiscal deficit at around $8\%$ of GDP, to underpin the economy, including RMB5.9tn general budget deficit ( $4\%$ of GDP), RMB1.3tn ultra-long central government special bonds ( $0.9\%$ ), and RMB4.5tn local government special bonds ( $3.1\%$ ) based on our estimates. The 2026 GDP growth target may be lowered to “ $4.5 - 5\%$ ” compared to “around $5\%$ ” in 2025, consistent with the downward revisions seen in recent local “Two Sessions” targets. Any newly introduced policy language on stabilizing the property sector and boosting domestic consumption will be key areas to watch. # ■ Manufacturing PMI dropped to another low amid CNY distortions. Manufacturing PMI edged down to $49\%$ in Feb from $49.3\%$ in Jan, below market expectations at $49.7\%$ . Demand notably deteriorated, as new order index dropped to $48.6\%$ in Feb from $49.2\%$ , the biggest contraction since July 2023. New export order also declined to $45\%$ in Feb from $47.8\%$ , signaling the headwinds in exports heading into 2026. Production fell back into contraction at $49.6\%$ . Reflation continued as raw materials purchase price and ex-factory price remained in expansion at $54.8\%$ and $50.6\%$ . Breaking down by sector, food processing and computer & electronic devices expanded in both new orders and production, while textile & garment and auto notably contracted. ■ Non-manufacturing PMI remained in contraction. Non-manufacturing PMI edged up to $49.5\%$ in Feb from $49.4\%$ , below market expectation at $50\%$ . Service PMI edged up to $49.7\%$ from $49.5\%$ , while new order index dropped to $45.7\%$ from $47.1\%$ . Price index of input and final sale picked up, indicating the reflation process also sustained in the service sector. Breaking down by sector, activities related to tourism and holiday consumption remained in high prosperity, including lodging & dining, sports & recreational activities, retail and air transportation; while capital market and real estate contracted. Construction PMI dipped from $48.8\%$ to $48.2\%$ in Feb as construction sites mostly suspended during the CNY. Eyes on the national Two Sessions for additional stimulus. A softening property market, weaker durable goods sales, and slower manufacturing have pointed to fading growth momentum in early 2026. At tomorrow's annual NPC meeting, policymakers may keep the broad fiscal deficit at around $8\%$ of GDP, to underpin the economy, including RMB5.9tn general budget deficit (4% of GDP), RMB1.3tn ultra-long central government special bonds (0.9%), and RMB4.5tn local government special bonds (3.1%). Additional measures include RMB500bn of CGSBs for capital injections into banks and insurance companies, and RMB2tn in local government debt-swap bonds. The 2026 GDP growth target may be lowered to "4.5-5%" compared to "around $5\%$ in 2025, consistent with the downward revisions seen in recent local "Two Sessions" targets. # Frank Liu (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk Source: NBS, CMBIGM Source: NBS, CMBIGM Figure 1: New Order Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 2: Business Sentiment Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 3: Export Order Index and Import Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 4: Inventory Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 5: Material Purchase Price Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 6: Ex-factory Price Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 7: Manufacturing Output Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 8: Service PMI & Output Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 9: Composite Output Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 10: Employment Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 11: Supply Delivery Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 12: Passenger flow Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 13: Economic Activity & A Share Index Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 14: House sales Source: Wind, CMBIGM # Disclosures & Disclaimers # Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. 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