2025-05-20-Jefferies-六旗娱乐（FUN）_投资者日回顾还有更多乐趣可寻_12页_383kb

Six Flags Entertainment Corp. (FUN) Equity Research Summary

Highlights

• Investor Day Recap: Jefferies reiterates a Buy rating with a $42 price target.
• Financial Targets: High single-digit revenue CAGR and significant margin expansion:
  • Revenue CAGR: ~6%, ~10%
  • Adj. EBITDA margin: 34% (2025) → 40% (2028)
  • Adj. EBITDA: $1.5B by 2028 (12% CAGR)

Investment Thesis

Upside Factors

• Margins expanding due to $200M in synergies, which Jefferies views as realistic.
• Valuation is compelling relative to Six Flags’ historical levels and current peers.

Risk/Reward

• Upside: Broader consumer spending growth surpassing FY19 levels.
• Downside: Slower-than-expected attendance or marginal expansion in per capita spending.

Key Strategies

• Boost attendance to 58M by 2028 by improving park utilization to align with top performers.
• Enhance value proposition (avg. $8/hour entertainment cost vs. $30 for destination parks).
• F&B investments showing 7% CAGR ROI, expected immediate deployment at legacy parks.

Financial Targets (FY25-FY28):

• Revenue growth steadily increasing, Adj. EBITDA expanding rapidly.
• Leverage target below 4.0x by YE26 (excluding potential land/sale proceeds).

Valuation & Sensitivity

• Target multiples: 7.5x EBITDA, 17x P/E, 9x P/FCF.
• Price range: $13 to $79, based on varying EBITDA growth/leverage scenarios.

ESG & Sustainability

• Customer Welfare: Rigorous ride safety inspections and guest safety as priorities.
• Environmental:
  • 30-year solar projects generating $1M+/year savings.
  • Ongoing renewable energy and efficient water/waste management initiatives.

Risks

• Intense competition.
• Changes in consumer leisure habits or discretionary spending.
• Legal/regulatory issues (guest safety or environmental enforcement).

Catalysts

• Effective execution on synergies and capital discipline.
• Financial and consumer conditions supporting legacy park performance.
• Accelerated debt reduction and resumption of capital returns.

Contact

• Equity Analyst: David Katz (212-323-3355, dkatz@jefferies.com)