> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # **Summary of GSMA Vision 2040: Spectrum for the Future of Mobile Connectivity** ## **Core Content** The **GSMA Vision 2040** report outlines the spectrum needs for the **6G era (2035–2040)**, emphasizing the importance of long-term planning and international harmonization to meet growing demand for mobile connectivity. The report serves as a critical reference for policymakers, regulators, and industry stakeholders to ensure the availability of necessary spectrum resources and support the transition to future technologies. --- ## **Main Findings** - **Continued Growth in Mobile Traffic**: Mobile network capacity demand is expected to grow by **15–20%** from 2025 to 2030, driven by the migration to 5G and the rise of "power users." By 2040, global mobile traffic could reach **700–1,300 EB/month**, with **60–95 GB/month** per connection. - **6G Deployment Timeline**: 6G is expected to begin deployment around **2030**, with large initial rollouts in countries like **China, Japan, South Korea, the US, the GCC states, Europe, Vietnam, and India**. By **2040**, 6G connections could reach **over 5 billion**, accounting for **about 50%** of all mobile connections globally. - **Spectrum Requirements**: - **Global average** mid-band spectrum needs for 2035–2040: **2–2.5 GHz** - **Higher-demand countries** (top 50%) may require **2.4–3.3 GHz** - **Mid-band spectrum** is crucial for meeting traffic demands, especially in dense urban areas, where traffic per square km is **9× greater than in other urban areas** and **700× greater than in rural areas** - **Traffic Distribution**: - **83% of traffic** is generated from **5% of the geographic area** (high-density urban locations) - **Urban areas** will face capacity constraints by **2030** if mid-band spectrum remains at current levels - **Impact of AI and 6G**: - AI-driven applications like **generative AI video** and **extended reality (XR)** will significantly increase traffic and require **ultra-low latency (10 ms or below)** and **wider bandwidth** - These demands will necessitate **more spectrum** and **advanced network capabilities** --- ## **Key Implications for Spectrum Policy** - **Spectrum Allocation Priorities**: - **3.8–4.2 GHz** and **upper 6 GHz (6.425–7.125 GHz)** should be allocated to mobile by **around 2030** - **4.4–4.99 GHz** and **7–8 GHz** bands will be critical for **long-term needs** beyond 2030 - **Harmonisation and Flexibility**: - Spectrum harmonisation at **WRC-27** will play a key role in enabling **6G deployment** - Governments and regulators must ensure **flexibility** to adapt to emerging applications and technologies - **Need for Early Planning**: - To avoid **network congestion** and maintain service quality, **2 GHz of mid-band spectrum** should be available by **2030** - Operators need **sufficient lead time** to deploy and optimise spectrum for 6G, which may take **several years** - **Spectrum Utilisation and Efficiency**: - Network densification, **AI-RAN**, and **multi-RAT spectrum sharing** will help increase capacity - However, these alone will not be enough to meet **projected demand growth** --- ## **Regional Spectrum Needs Breakdown** | **Region** | **Average Mid-Band Spectrum Needs (2035–2040)** | **Top 50% Mid-Band Spectrum Needs (2035–2040)** | **2040 Traffic per Connection** | **6G Penetration (2040)** | |-------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|-----------------------------| | **Developed Asia Pacific** | 1.9–2.5 GHz | 2.1–2.7 GHz | 75–120 GB/month | 124% | | **Southeast Asia** | 2–2.6 GHz | 2.1–2.8 GHz | 65–105 GB/month | 34% | | **South Asia** | 2–2.8 GHz | 2.3–3.1 GHz | 65–105 GB/month | 34% | | **Other Asia Pacific** | 1.2–1.5 GHz | 1.5–2.4 GHz | 45–75 GB/month | 4% | | **Greater China** | 2.1–2.9 GHz | 2.3–3.1 GHz | 75–120 GB/month | 107% | | **North America** | 2.5–3.3 GHz | 2.5–3.3 GHz | 75–120 GB/month | 21% | | **Latin America & Caribbean** | 1.7–2.2 GHz | 1.9–2.7 GHz | 55–90 GB/month | 33% | | **GCC States** | 2.3–2.9 GHz | 2.4–3.2 GHz | 45–70 GB/month | 46% | | **Middle East & North Africa** | 1.9–2.7 GHz | 2.3–3.3 GHz | 130–195 GB/month | 14% | | **Sub-Saharan Africa** | 1.3–1.8 GHz | 1.5–2.4 GHz | 20–40 GB/month | 96% | | **Europe** | 1.8–2.3 GHz | 1.9–2.5 GHz | 65–105 GB/month | 96% | | **Eurasia** | 1.8–2.3 GHz | 1.9–2.5 GHz | 70–110 GB/month | 42% | --- ## **Conclusion** The GSMA Vision 2040 highlights the **urgent need for spectrum planning** to support the **transition to 6G** and ensure **future connectivity**. The report underscores that **mid-band spectrum** will be the backbone of mobile networks in the 2030s, with **harmonisation** and **early allocation** being critical to avoid network congestion and support the **next digital era**. Policymakers and regulators must act now to secure the necessary spectrum and facilitate the **development of 6G technologies**.