20260427-招银国际-1Q26_results_Maintaining_organic_growth_target_6页_762kb

Thermo Fisher (TMO US) Summary

Core Content

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO US) reported strong performance in 1Q26, with revenue of US $11.01bn, representing a 6.2% YoY increase. Adjusted EPS was US $5.44, up 5.6% YoY, driven primarily by growth in bioproduction, CDMO, and clinical CRO operations. The company beat the Bloomberg consensus by 1.5% in revenue and 3.8% in adj. EPS. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to 6.2 - 8.0% YoY from 3.9 - 5.9%, and maintained the organic revenue growth target at 3 - 4%, with adj. EPS growth expected at 7.8 - 9.9%.

Key Highlights

• 1Q26 Performance:

  • Revenue: +6.2% YoY
  • Adj. EPS: +5.6% YoY
  • Outperformed BBG consensus by 1.5% in revenue and 3.8% in adj. EPS
  • Organic growth: 1% (vs. +2% in 2025), attributed to fewer selling days and CDMO timing

• Guidance Update:

  • Full-year revenue growth: 6.2 - 8.0% YoY
  • Full-year organic growth: 3 - 4%
  • Adj. EPS growth: 7.8 - 9.9% YoY

• Clario Acquisition:

  • Completed in March 2026 for US $8.9bn
  • Expected to contribute US $0.9bn in revenue and US $0.32 in adj. EPS in 2026
  • Strategic synergy with TMO's clinical research business, especially in AI integration

• Macro Environment:

  • Acknowledged the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflationary pressures
  • Management built a buffer into guidance to accommodate potential supply chain and logistics cost increases
  • Anticipated benefits from US manufacturing reshoring in 2027-28

Financial Overview

Valuation and Performance

• Target Price: US $620 (down from US $670)
• Current Price: US $469.71
• P/E (Adj.): 19.1x (FY26E), decreasing from 20.5x (FY24A)
• P/B: 3.1x (FY26E), decreasing from 3.6x (FY24A)
• 12-month Price Performance:
  • 1-month: -4.2%
  • 3-months: -25.0%
  • 6-months: -18.0%

Strategic and Market Position

• Strategic Synergy: The Clario acquisition is expected to significantly enhance TMO's position in clinical research services
• Technology Integration: Synergy with TMO's AI strategy could strengthen its technological moat
• Peer Comparison:
  • TMO's P/E (Adj.) is below the overseas average of 23.0x
  • TMO's P/E (Adj.) is also below the China average of 33.9x

Financial Projections (2026E-2028E)

DCF Valuation

• Terminal Growth Rate: 2.0%
• WACC: 8.16%
• Equity Value (US$ bn): 228.5
• Price per Share (US$): 620.0
• Net Debt (US$ bn): 37.2
• FCFF (2026E): -2.5
• PV of Terminal Value (US$ bn): 199.1
• Total PV (US$ bn): 265.7

Valuation Sensitivity

Analyst Ratings

• CMBIGM Rating: BUY
• Reasoning:
  • Reflects Clario's consolidation and macro uncertainties
  • Relatively conservative view on bottomline despite revenue growth
  • Price target of US $620, down from US $670

Shareholding and Performance

• Market Cap: US $177.08bn
• Average 3 months Turnover: US $808.4mn
• 52-week High/Low: US $639.45 / US $390.26
• Total Issued Shares: 377.0mn
• Top Shareholders:
  • Vanguard: 9.2%
  • BlackRock: 8.3%

Conclusion

Thermo Fisher Scientific demonstrated resilience in its 1Q26 results, outperforming expectations and raising its full-year guidance. The company's proactive response to macroeconomic challenges and strategic acquisitions, particularly Clario, are key drivers of its growth strategy. Despite the challenges, the firm maintains a BUY rating, with a revised target price of US $620. The financial metrics suggest a potential for continued growth, though with a more cautious outlook on profitability due to macro uncertainties.