2022-11-30-科尔尼-Navigating_an_unpredictable_environment_15页_1mb

报告摘要

Introduction and Market Overview (2021):

Post-pandemic recovery boosted deal values in industrial M&A, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in 2021, driven by economic recovery.
Deal volume remained low at a 10-year minimum.
Megadeals and consolidation were key factors, alongside financial investors exiting pandemic-era investments.

Market Dynamics and Sentiment:

Drivers of M&A: Access to technology (98% positive exec sentiment), sector consolidation (72% positive) retain dominance, reflecting a trend of technology + consolidation.
Erosion of sentiment (down >50% for executives): Geopolitical instability, particularly the war in Ukraine, is seen as highly negative (~50% negative sentiment) and a major driver of unpredictability.
Supply chain disruptions persist, though their impact on M&A prioritization (vs. Russia/Ukraine) divided experts slightly.
Sentiment declined significantly across most regions, with Europe becoming less positive, Eastern Europe's becoming more negative and less attractive (lower buying activity), while Western and Latin America's stayed favorable. Asia-Pacific remained stable but with inflation concerns. US deal value surged post-pandemic.

Target Sectors:

Electronic components and other electric goods saw the highest positive sentiment.
Medical equipment experienced a significant drop in positive sentiment.
Metal products showed a positive boost due to raw material shortages and high prices.
Machinery continued to lose appeal.

Key Trends and Drivers:

ESG Integration: Gained prominence, especially in Europe (EU legislative push) impacting sectors like vehicles, electronics, and plastics. Target companies need baseline ESG standards.
Digital Capabilities: Rated highly important by US executives, particularly in target sectors like electronics, vehicles, and financials.
Post-Pandemic Supply Chain Effects: Highlighted as a significant M&A factor now, heightening scrutiny and due diligence, especially concerning tech supply chains.

Geographic M&A Activity (2021):

Global deal value increased by 21% to $678 billion, exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
US and China were the top target locations.
Cross-border deals were only 30% of total value ($36 billion).

Methodology:

Based on Dealogic transaction data (2009-2021) and an executive survey by Kearney involving senior M&A professionals.

Conclusion:

M&A activity rebounded in 2021 with financial and supply factors driving deals.
A primary challenge is navigating the new unpredictability due to geopolitical instability, exacerbated by the Ukraine war, which significantly dampened sentiment and deal enthusiasm in Europe, particularly Eastern Europe.