2021-12-31-波兰经济社会研究中心-被盗的几十年_白俄罗斯经济奇迹的未实现期望（英）_37页_1mb

Summary

The report analyzes the trajectory of Belarus's economic development since independence, highlighting its hybrid characteristics combining state control and market-oriented growth. Political and economic instability since independence hindered deep reforms, leading to economic stagnation despite initial growth. High state intervention, burdensome regulations, and reliance on Russia have created structural rigidities impeding sustainable development.

• Early Transition: Inflation broke through the ceiling in the late 1990s, attracting investment (positive) but also fostering rent-seeking and inefficiency (negative). Growth convergence appeared in the early 2000s, but long-term stagnation followed.
• Contemporary Challenges: The economy faces systemic issues: slow reforms, mismanagement of public and private sectors, low productivity, inefficiency, and susceptibility to external shocks.
• Crisis Drivers: Catalyzed by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, sanctions, and reduced economic ties, Belarus is projected for recession. Proposed solutions require profound systemic change: radical liberalization, institutional reforms, and addressing external debt.
• Reforms Needed: Transition to a market-oriented model is essential. Key areas include liberalizing trade and finance, creating a favorable private sector environment, privatizing/ restructuring state assets, optimizing social support policies, and advancing digital transformation.

In conclusion, Belarus's future stability and growth depend on comprehensive reforms that transform its economic model, promote competition, enhance productivity, and shift from rent-based to inclusive growth.