2007年-世界发展银行全球_International_Remittances_and_the_Household___Analysis_and_Review_of_Global_Evidence_32页_397kb

报告摘要

Summary of "International Remittances and the Household: Analysis and Review of Global Evidence"

Core Content

This paper explores the economic impact of international remittances on both countries and households in the developing world. It presents a comprehensive analysis using a new dataset of 115 developing countries and reviews recent household-level studies to understand how remittances influence welfare, poverty, consumption, and investment.

Main Viewpoints

1. Impact on Countries

Regional Distribution: Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia receive the majority of official international remittances. In 2003, these regions accounted for 42.3% and 23.9%, respectively, of all remittances.
Trend Analysis: Overall, official international remittances have increased by about 8% per year in the developing world. However, in Europe and Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, the level of remittances has actually declined over the past five years.
Income Group Analysis: Lower middle-income countries (GDP per capita between $736 and $2,935) receive the largest share of remittances and have recorded the highest percentage increase over the period.

2. Economic Determinants of Remittances

The paper uses an econometric model to analyze the factors influencing remittances, including:
- Distance: A 10% increase in distance to a major remittance-sending region (e.g., the U.S., OECD-Europe, or the Arab Gulf) reduces per capita remittances by 6.4–6.8%.
- Income Level: There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita GDP and remittances. Middle-income countries receive the most remittances, while low and high-income countries receive less.
- Income Inequality: The Gini coefficient is positively related to remittances, suggesting that higher inequality may encourage more migration and remittances.
- Human Capital: The share of the population with secondary education is negatively and statistically insignificant in the model, indicating that education may not directly influence remittance flows.
- Poverty: The poverty headcount index has no statistically significant effect on remittance levels, suggesting that poverty alone does not drive migration or remittances.

3. Impact on Households

Welfare and Poverty Reduction: International remittances increase household income and reduce both the level and depth of poverty in developing countries.
Case Studies:
- In Lesotho, a 100% cessation of remittances would lead to a 32% drop in average household consumption and a 26% increase in the poverty headcount index.
- In Mexico, a 10% increase in remittances reduces the poverty headcount by 0.77 and the poverty gap by 0.53.
- In Guatemala, remittances significantly reduce the depth of poverty. Households in the lowest decile group receive over 60% of their income from remittances, which has a large effect on poverty measures.
- In rural Mexico, international migration is associated with better child health outcomes, including a 3% lower infant mortality rate and a 0.64 standard deviation higher birth weight, attributed to increased income and investment in child health.

4. Consumption and Investment Patterns

Households receiving international remittances tend to:
- Spend less on consumption goods (e.g., food) and more on investment goods (e.g., education, housing).
- Invest more in entrepreneurial activities, indicating a shift from immediate consumption to long-term development.

Key Information

International remittances are the second-largest source of external funding for developing countries, with total flows reaching $75 billion annually.
The paper highlights the importance of data consistency in measuring remittances, as many developing countries mis-categorize remittance flows, leading to underestimation.
The gravity model is used to estimate the determinants of remittances, incorporating variables such as income, migration costs, education, population density, and credit rating.
The impact on poverty is significant, especially for the poorest households, which rely heavily on remittances to improve their living standards.
Consumption behavior suggests that remittances are not merely used for immediate consumption but are channeled into investments that contribute to long-term development.

Conclusion and Future Work

The paper concludes that international remittances have a positive impact on welfare and poverty reduction, and that households tend to invest in human and physical capital rather than just consume.
It emphasizes the need for more empirical research to better understand the underlying mechanisms and the role of factors such as education and income inequality in remittance flows.
Future work should focus on policy implications and the long-term development effects of remittances.