> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Meidong Auto (1268 HK) Summary ## Core Content Meidong Auto is a Hong Kong-listed company that operates in the automotive dealership sector. The report provides an analysis of its financial performance, future outlook, and valuation, with a recommendation to maintain a **BUY** rating. The target price has been adjusted from HK$2.80 to HK$2.20, based on a revised 8x FY27E P/E ratio. The analysis highlights the company's ability to maintain healthy cash flow and balance sheet despite industry challenges, and its potential for profit growth in FY26-27 due to recovery in new-car gross profit margin (GPM) and the expansion into the EV brand dealership. ## Main Points - **Financial Performance in 2H25**: - Revenue fell by 14% YoY and 6% below the prior forecast, primarily due to lower selling prices and auto finance commissions. - New-car GPM improved by 9.8ppts HoH to -1.0%, outperforming peers and exceeding expectations. - Net profit reached RMB60mn, which was RMB80mn higher than the prior forecast. - SG&A and finance costs were largely in line with estimates. - **FY26E Outlook**: - New-car GPM is expected to improve by 2ppts YoY to -3.8%. - Revenue is projected to decline by 9% YoY, but GPM is expected to remain flat. - Net profit is forecasted at RMB146mn, aided by lower amortization and finance costs. - **FY27E Outlook**: - New HIMA stores are expected to halt the revenue decline. - New-car GPM is projected to improve slightly to -2.1%. - Overall GPM is expected to rise by 1.2ppts to 7.5%, and net margin to widen by 1ppt to 1.8%. - Net profit is forecasted at RMB328mn. ## Key Financial Metrics | Metric | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | |----------------------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 28,555 | 22,154 | 20,023 | 18,292 | 18,455 | | YoY growth (%) | -0.3% | -22.4% | -9.6% | -8.6% | 0.9% | | Net profit (RMB mn) | 140.2 | -2,264.1 | -755.0 | 146.2 | 328.0 | | YoY growth (%) | -73.1% | na | na | na | 124.4% | | P/E (x) | 11.8 | ns | ns | 11.4 | 5.1 | | P/B (x) | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | | Yield (%) | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 8.8 | 11.9 | | ROE (%) | 3.0 | -56.7 | -31.1 | 7.1 | 15.1 | | Net gearing (%) | 0.9 | -83.0 | -13.1 | -26.0 | -23.6 | ## Shareholding Structure - **Apex Sail Limited**: 52.3% - **Others**: 47.7% ## Stock Data - **Market Cap (HK$ mn)**: 1,884.7 - **Average 3-month total return (HK$ mn)**: 2.1 - **52-week High/Low (HK$)**: 2.34 / 1.16 - **Total Issued Shares (mn)**: 1,346.2 ## Share Performance (12-mth) | Period | Absolute | Relative | |--------|---------|----------| | 1-mth | -15.2% | -8.8% | | 3-mth | 10.2% | 14.0% | | 6-mth | -30.3% | -24.5% | ## Analyst Rating - **Rating**: BUY - **Target Price**: HK$2.20 (Previously: HK$2.80) - **Up/Downside**: 57.1% - **Current Price**: HK$1.40 ## Key Risks - Lower-than-expected sales and margins - Sector de-rating - Uncertainties in the automotive industry ## Financial Highlights - **New-car GPM Recovery**: Meidong's new-car GPM recovered faster than peers in 2H25, giving confidence in FY26E growth. - **Operational Efficiency**: The company's strong operational efficiency supports its ability to improve GPM and net profit. - **Diversification**: Expansion into EV brand dealership is a strategic move to diversify business. - **Gross Profit Trends**: Gross profit margin improved in 2H25 to 6.8%, showing resilience. - **Net Profit Growth**: Net profit is expected to grow significantly in FY27E, up 124.4% YoY. ## Valuation and Earnings Revisions | Metric | New (CMBIGM) | Old (CMBIGM) | Diff (%) | |----------------------|-------------|-------------|----------| | Revenue | 18,292 | 20,651 | -11.7% | | Gross profit | 1,152 | 1,107 | -9.2% | | Operating profit | 316 | -674 | -20.1% | | Net profit | 146 | -705 | -27.3% | | Gross margin | 6.3% | 5.4% | 0.4 ppts | | Operating margin | 1.7% | -3.3% | -0.2 ppts | | Net margin | 0.8% | -4.2% | -0.4 ppts | ## Analyst Certification - The analyst certifies that all views in the report reflect personal opinions. - No compensation is tied to the views expressed. - The analyst has not traded in the stock within 30 days prior to the report's release and will not do so within 3 days after. ## CMBIGM Ratings - **BUY**: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months - **HOLD**: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months - **SELL**: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months - **NOT RATED**: Not rated by CMBIGM - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark ## Disclaimer - The report is for informational purposes only and does not provide individually tailored investment advice. - Past performance does not guarantee future results. - CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage incurred by relying on the report. - The information is based on analyses believed to be publicly available and reliable, but not guaranteed. - The report is intended for specific recipients and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.