战略与国际研究中心-Future-Watch,-June-2,-2005_-The-Tigris-and-Euphrates-River-Basins_-A-New-Look-at-Development_2页_1mb

The Tigris and Euphrates River Basins: A New Look at Development Summary

Core Content

The Tigris and Euphrates river basins are central to the political and economic dynamics of the Middle East, particularly among Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. These rivers, which flow through multiple countries, have the potential to serve as a foundation for regional stability and economic development rather than a source of conflict. Dr. Olcay Ünder, a former Turkish official and visiting professor at Kent State University, argues that the management of shared water resources can foster international cooperation and redefine the region's relationship with water as a shared asset rather than a point of contention.

Main Points

• Water as a Key Resource: Water is a critical issue in the Middle East, influencing political stability and economic development. It is often a last topic in diplomatic discussions due to its potential to cause conflict.

• Hydronationalism: All three countries—Turkey, Syria, and Iraq—exhibit hydronationalism, a tendency to view water as a national resource. This mindset is driven by fears and misunderstandings about future water usage.

• Current Water Usage Projections: The combined water usage targets of the three countries exceed the available water by 149% for the Euphrates and 112% for the Tigris, highlighting a miscalculation and the need for a more realistic and cooperative approach.

• GAP as a Model: The Southeastern Anatolia Development Project (GAP) in Turkey is a large-scale, integrated development initiative that focuses on sustainable human development. It includes infrastructure, energy, agriculture, and social development projects.

• GAP's Achievements: GAP has already increased small farm income by 300% and improved human development indicators such as literacy and health. It also offers a more integrated and efficient approach to resource allocation.

• Potential for Regional Cooperation: By sharing the benefits of water development—such as electricity, agriculture, and education—Turkey can promote regional goodwill and reduce the risk of water-related conflict.

• ETIC Initiative: Dr. Ünder has launched the Euphrates-Tigris Initiative for Cooperation (ETIC), a track-two diplomatic project aimed at fostering collaboration among water experts and students from Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. It seeks to build group identity, promote networking, and develop a trilateral institutional framework that is less politically sensitive.

• Historical and Future Water Conflict: While there is no recorded instance of an outright war over water in modern history, experts warn that future conflicts may be more likely to occur within states (intrastate) and affect downstream riparian nations. This makes Turkey's role in managing the river basins crucial for regional peace.

• Opportunity for Cooperation: With recent political changes in Iraq and potential openings in Syria, now is an opportune time to focus on cross-border water issues as a means to promote regional cooperation and economic growth.

Key Information

• Geographical Scope: The Tigris and Euphrates rivers flow through Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, and northern Saudi Arabia, covering a total of 1,795 miles.

• Water Flow: The rivers carry over 88 billion cubic meters of water annually.

• GAP Infrastructure: The project includes 22 dams, 19 hydropower plants, and irrigation networks covering 1.7 million hectares of land.

• Energy Production: GAP's installed capacity is approximately 7,500 MW, with an annual hydroelectric production of 27 billion kWh, accounting for 23% of Turkey's total energy production.

• Economic Impact: GAP has demonstrated significant economic and social benefits, including increased small farm income and improved human development indicators.

• Regional Stability: Dr. Ünder emphasizes that Turkey's development success should be shared with downstream countries to avoid future water shortages and associated conflicts.

Conclusion

The Tigris and Euphrates river basins present a unique opportunity for the Middle East to move beyond hydronationalism and toward a model of shared development and cooperation. By leveraging the success of projects like GAP and promoting initiatives such as ETIC, the region can transform water from a source of tension into a catalyst for peace and prosperity.