20260227-招银国际-京东方精电-00710.HK-2025_preview_near-term_earnings_dragged_by_pricing_pressure_and_new_plant_profitability_6页_767kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # BOE Varitronix (710 HK) # 2025 preview: near-term earnings dragged by pricing pressure and new plant profitability BOEVx will report 2H25/FY25E results in mid-March, and we estimate FY25E revenue/net profit of HK$14,533mn/378mn (+8%/-3% YoY), implying 2H25E revenue/net profit of HK$7,863mn/198mn (+8%/-10% YoY), with profit mainly dragged by domestic destocking pressure, yields in new Vietnam/Chengdu plants, and system business profitability. Looking into 2026, we are positive on BOEVx's earnings recovery, backed by overseas share gains, Vietnam capacity ramp, margin improvement from the Chengdu plant and system business. We revise down FY25-27E EPS by 5-7% to reflect near-term domestic headwinds and pricing pressure, and lower our TP to HK$8.4 based on the same 14x FY26E P/E. Maintain BUY. ■ 2H25/FY25E preview: earnings dragged by domestic demand, ASP headwinds and depreciation pressure. We estimate FY25E revenue to grow $8\%$ to HK\$14,533mn and net profit to decline \(3 \%$ YoY to HK\\)385mn, $9.7\%$ below Bloomberg consensus estimates. For 2H25E, we expect revenue/net profit of HK\\)7,863mn/205mn (+8%/-10% YoY), mainly due to domestic demand weakness, slower yield improvement in new Vietnam/Chengdu plants, and profitability in system segment. We estimate 2H25E NPM to remain flattish at $2.5\%$ compared to $2.7\%$ in 1H25. ■ 2026 outlook: overseas sales growth and Vietnam/Chengdu capacity ramp-up. For 2026, we are constructive on earnings recovery: 1) overseas sales: continued share gains with $20\%+$ YoY sales growth, backed by Vietnam capacity ramp-up; 2) Chengdu plant: margin improvement given higher UTR and better yield; 3) system business: order wins of high-margin LTPS/OLED projects and improving operating efficiency. We estimate revenue/net profit to grow $10\% / 25\%$ YoY in FY26E. ■ Valuation/Key risks. We lower FY25-27E EPS estimates by $5 - 7\%$ to factor in 2H25 earnings pressure, higher depreciation costs and slower system business margin improvement. We trim our TP to HK\\(8.4 based on the same 14.0x FY26E P/E. We remain positive on BOEVx's industry leadership in auto display market, share gains with overseas OEMs, and strong support from its parent company BOE for R&D technology and order/client wins. Trading at 7.8x/6.3x FY26/27E P/E, the stock offers attractive risk/reward. Risks include domestic demand weakness and continued ASP/margin pressure. Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E FY27E Revenue (HK$ mn) 10,760 13,449 14,533 15,979 18,029 YoY growth (%) 0.4 25.0 8.1 9.9 12.8 EBITDA (HK$ mn) 771.0 686.0 721.3 832.2 955.5 Net profit (HK$ mn) 475.3 391.3 378.2 472.9 581.0 YoY growth (%) (18.4) (17.7) (3.3) 25.0 22.9 EPS (Reported) (HK$) 0.60 0.50 0.48 0.60 0.74 Consensus EPS (HK$) na na 0.53 0.65 0.78 P/E (x) 7.7 9.4 9.7 7.8 6.3 P/B (x) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Yield (%) 409.5 365.4 161.1 328.5 385.2 ROE (%) 11.1 8.7 8.0 9.3 10.7 Net gearing (%) 27.5 49.2 22.1 53.3 34.5 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates # BUY (Maintain) Target Price HK$8.40 (Previous TP HK$8.84) Up/Downside 79.8% Current Price HK$4.67 # China Technology Alex NG (852) 3900 0881 alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hangqing LI lihanqing@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) 3,698.6 Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn) 9.5 52w High/Low (HK$) 8.36/4.53 Total Issued Shares (mn) 792.0 Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure BOE Technology Group 53.0% Ko Chun Shun 5.6% Source: HKEx Share Performance 12-mth Price Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth -4.1% -2.7% 3-mth -3.1% -4.7% 6-mth -32.4% -34.6% Source:FactSet Source: FactSet # 2025 results preview Figure 1: Earnings preview HK$ mn CMBI Consensus 2022 2023 2024 2025E YoY FY25E Diff % Revenue 10,722 10,760 13,449 14,533 8.1% 14,876 -2.3% Operating profit 670 570 437 421 -3.7% 453 -7.0% Net profit 582 475 391 378 -3.3% 417 -9.3% EPS (HK$ cent) 78.40 60.40 49.60 47.96 -3.3% 53.1 -9.7% Operating margin 6.3% 5.3% 3.3% 2.9% -2.4 ppt 3.0% Net margin 5.4% 4.4% 2.9% 2.6% -1.8 ppt 2.8% Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates Figure 2: P&L forecast HK$ mn 2023 2024 1H25 2H25E 2025E 2026E 2027E Revenue 10,760 13,449 6,671 7,863 14,533 15,979 18,029 YoY 0.4% 25.0% 8.3% 7.8% 8.1% 9.9% 12.8% ... Auto display 9,710 12,660 6,245 7,461 13,706 15,076 17,036 YoY 1.4% 30.4% 8.6% 8.0% 8.3% 10.0% 13.0% ... Industrial display 1,050 789 426 402 828 902 993 YoY -8.3% -24.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 9.0% 10.0% Operating profit 570 437 201 220 421 526 641 OPM (%) 5.3% 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 3.3% 3.6% ... YoY -15.0% -23.2% 3.9% -9.7% -3.7% 24.7% 21.9% Net profit 475 391 180 198 378 473 581 NPM (%) 4.4% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 3.0% 3.2% ... YoY -18.4% -17.7% 4.9% -9.8% -3.3% 25.0% 22.9% Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates # Earnings Revision Figure 3: Earnings revision (HK$ mn) New Old Change (%) FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY27E Revenue 14,533 15,979 18,029 14,879 16,843 19,005 -2.3% -5.1% -5.1% Operating profit 421 526 641 456 555 676 -7.5% -5.2% -5.2% Net profit 378 473 581 408 498 611 -7.3% -5.0% -5.0% EPS (HK$ cent) 47.96 59.97 73.67 51.75 63.12 77.53 -7.3% -5.0% -5.0% Operating margin 2.9% 3.3% 3.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% -0.2 ppt 0 ppt 0 ppt Net margin 2.6% 3.0% 3.2% 2.7% 3.0% 3.2% -0.1 ppt 0 ppt 0 ppt Source: Company data, CMBIG estimates Figure 4: CMBI estimates vs consensus (HK$ mn) CMBI Consensus Diff (%) FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E Revenue 14,533 15,979 18,029 14,876 16,744 18,823 -2.3% -4.6% -4.2% Operating profit 421 526 641 453 552 673 -7.0% -4.8% -4.8% Net profit 378 473 581 417 512 616 -9.3% -7.7% -5.8% EPS (HK$ cent) 47.96 59.97 73.67 53.14 64.86 78.29 -9.7% -7.5% -5.9% Operating margin 2.9% 3.3% 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.6% -0.1 ppt 0 ppt 0 ppt Net margin 2.6% 3.0% 3.2% 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% -0.2 ppt -0.1 ppt -0.1 ppt Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates # Valuation Maintain BUY and our new TP of HK\(8.40 is based on the same 14.0x FY26E P/E. We are positive on BOEVx's industry leadership in auto display market, share gains with overseas OEMs, and strong support from its parent company BOE for R&D technology and order/client wins. Trading at 7.8x/6.3x FY26/27E P/E, the stock offers attractive risk/reward in our view. Figure 5: Peers' valuation Company Ticker Rating Mkt Cap US$(mn) Price (LC) TP (LC) Up/Down -side P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E BOE Varitronix 710 HK BUY 473 4.71 8.4 78% 7.8 6.3 0.3 0.3 8.0 9.3 LDG LPL US NR 5,350 5.35 NA NA 10.2 67.4 - - 11.2 1.7 AUO 2409 TT NR 4,011 16.10 NA NA 37.1 50.6 0.8 0.8 2.3 1.6 Tianma 000050 CH NR 3,618 9.99 NA NA 77.5 48.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.8 Wuhu Token 300088 CH NR 2,494 6.71 NA NA 42.7 31.0 1.9 1.9 4.7 6.1 Infovision 688055 CH NR 1,925 3.88 NA NA - - - - - - Truly 732 HK NR 383 1.02 NA NA - - - - - - Average 35.2 40.8 1.1 1.1 5.6 Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates. Data as of 26 Feb 2026 Figure 6: 12M forward P/E band Source: Company data, CMBIG estimates Figure 7: 12M forward P/B band Source: Company data, CMBIG estimates Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (HK$ mn) Revenue 10,722 10,760 13,449 14,533 15,979 18,029 Operating expenses 10,052 10,191 13,011 14,112 15,453 17,388 Operating profit 670 570 437 421 526 641 EBITDA 841 771 686 721 832 956 Depreciation (166) (202) (244) (300) (307) (315) Other income/expense (445) (466) (671) (786) (863) (974) Others 427 437 651 773 847 965 Pre-tax profit 658 540 422 408 510 632 Income tax 98 59 21 52 59 73 After tax profit 560 481 402 356 451 559 Net profit 582 475 391 378 473 581 Adjusted net profit 582 475 391 378 473 581 BALANCE SHEET 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (HK$ mn) Current assets 6,611 8,097 9,195 8,377 10,497 10,223 Cash & equivalents 2,819 3,501 2,700 1,984 3,070 2,419 Account receivables 2,158 2,556 3,326 2,858 3,941 3,731 Inventories 1,568 1,947 1,778 2,144 2,095 2,682 Other current assets 66 94 1,391 1,391 1,391 1,391 Non-current assets 1,673 1,937 2,270 2,499 2,742 3,016 PP&E 1,490 1,760 2,060 2,290 2,533 2,806 Other non-current assets 182 177 209 209 209 209 Total assets 8,283 10,034 11,465 10,876 13,239 13,239 Current liabilities 4,103 5,023 6,500 5,614 7,647 7,229 Account payables 3,390 4,738 6,228 5,342 7,375 6,958 Tax payable 65 14 23 23 23 23 Other current liabilities 648 271 248 248 248 248 Non-current liabilities 64 601 365 365 365 365 Long-term borrowings 31 383 170 170 170 170 Other non-current liabilities 33 218 194 194 194 194 Total liabilities 4,167 5,624 6,864 5,979 8,012 7,594 Share capital 198 198 198 198 198 198 Other reserves 3,867 4,156 4,337 4,656 5,008 5,447 Total shareholders equity 4,116 4,410 4,600 4,898 5,228 5,645 Total equity and liabilities 8,283 10,034 11,465 10,876 13,239 13,239 CASH FLOW 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (HK$ mn) Operating Profit before taxation 658 540 422 408 510 632 Depreciation & amortization 166 202 237 352 397 447 Change in working capital (194) 564 888 (784) 999 (794) Others 144 (120) (21) (52) (59) (73) Net cash from operations 774 1,186 1,527 (76) 1,846 212 Investing Capital expenditure (1,176) (502) (538) (581) (639) (721) Others 7 278 0 0 0 0 Net cash from investing (1,170) (224) (538) (581) (639) (721) Financing Dividend paid (109) (181) (135) (59) (121) (142) Others 1,207 (83) 0 0 0 0 Net cash from financing 1,098 (263) (135) (59) (121) (142) Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 2,267 2,819 3,501 2,700 1,984 3,070 Exchange difference (151) (17) 0 0 0 0 Others 702 698 (801) (716) 1,086 (651) Cash at the end of the year 2,819 3,501 2,700 1,984 3,070 2,419 GROWTH 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Revenue 38.6% 0.4% 25.0% 8.1% 9.9% 12.8% Operating profit 91.5% (15.0%) (23.2%) (3.7%) 24.7% 21.9% EBITDA 63.9% (8.3%) (11.0%) 5.1% 15.4% 14.8% Net profit 77.7% (18.4%) (17.7%) (3.3%) 25.0% 22.9% Adj. net profit 77.7% (18.4%) (17.7%) (3.3%) 25.0% 22.9% PROFITABILITY 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Operating margin 6.3% 5.3% 3.3% 2.9% 3.3% 3.6% EBITDA margin 7.8% 7.2% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% Adj. net profit margin 5.4% 4.4% 2.9% 2.6% 3.0% 3.2% Return on equity (ROE) 15.6% 11.1% 8.7% 8.0% 9.3% 10.7% GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Net debt to equity (x) 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 Current ratio (x) 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 Receivable turnover days 66.4 79.9 79.8 77.7 77.7 77.7 Inventory turnover days 50.0 74.7 61.9 61.9 60.8 60.8 Payable turnover days 115.1 172.8 182.3 182.5 182.5 182.5 VALUATION 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec P/E 6.0 7.7 9.4 9.7 7.8 6.3 P/B 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Div yield (%) 524.9 409.5 365.4 161.1 328.5 385.2 EV 4,115.8 4,409.7 4,600.5 4,897.5 5,227.6 5,644.8 EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 EV/EBITDA 4.9 5.7 6.7 6.8 6.3 5.9 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. 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